Brexit talks go down to wire ahead of European summit

Good morning.

Brexit talks continued without resolution overnight in Brussels and will resume this morning as a new withdrawal agreement - something that was seen as highly unlikely to ever be reached - hoves into view.

Our lead on it is here, and The Irish Times website will be updated throughout the day.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has said he must inform member states by lunchtime today if a deal can be agreed in time for the European Council meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday.

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Martyn Turner

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The elements of the deal are set to be a customs border in the Irish Sea - rebranded and sweetened for the DUP - as well as a huge financial package for Northern Ireland. Details of the other key issue - that of consent, and how Northern Ireland agrees to whatever special treatment it is given - have yet to emerge. DUP leader Arlene Foster last night indicated Dublin had also compromised, and whatever role emerges for Stormont must be palatable to her and to other parties in Northern Ireland.

Foster spoke of cross-community support being needed for a new Northern Ireland protocol, and whether any consent mechanism - in theory at least - allows the North vote to leave or reject a new backstop-type arrangement will be keenly watched. Dublin had always insisted on an “all-weather” and “unless-and-until” backstop.

In London, Boris Johnson has postponed his weekly cabinet meeting until this afternoon amid signs a deal is close. As Denis Staunton reports, the meeting is due to happen at the same time Barnier briefs EU ambassadors. Barnier will also have to brief the College of Commissioners in Brussels.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will be in the Dáil for Leaders’ Questions, and the House will also hear pre-European Council statements. A Brexit briefing for Opposition leaders from Government Buildings is also expected, although it is understood this had been in the diary for some time.

And, much as the Taoiseach sought to dampen it, speculation about a November general election on the back of a Brexit deal gripped Leinster House yesterday and will likely do so again today. Even leading Opposition TDs felt Varadkar wouldn’t get a better backdrop for an election than a pre-Christmas poll with a Brexit deal in his pocket.

Climate concerns worry voters

One of the happier people in Leinster House yesterday after the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll was Green Party leader Eamon Ryan, who saw his party double its support to 8 per cent. Its support in Dublin is 13 per cent, higher than Labour and Sinn Féin.

Ryan could be forgiven for being a little relieved the poll helped change the focus on the Greens from his recent statements on reintroducing wolves to Ireland and car sharing in rural Ireland.

Pat Leahy outlines more findings of our poll this morning, which explain the Greens' new surge. Leahy says a majority of voters believe climate change is the most serious issue facing the world but are not convinced about carbon tax increases, and a substantial minority are sceptical about the urgency of the problem.

The Government and Fianna Fáil may take heart from the findings on carbon tax, just a week after opting for a €6-per-tonne increase in the tax - less than had been recommend by experts.

In an analysis piece, Leahy says "securing public acceptance for further increases in carbon tax, as well as other expensive and inconvenient climate action measures, will be a tricky task for this or any future government".

“As long as there is a significant minority opposed to tax changes and new charges, politicians will be extremely nervous about their introduction.”

Best reads

Miriam Lord on how Michael Ring and the new Westport to Turlough road garnered international attention.

In the oped pages, Kathy Sheridan picks up on Ryan's ideas for car sharing in rural Ireland but says a dependence on cars defies trite solutions.

Alex Kane says mutual distrust continues to "dog the North".

Playbook

Dáil

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe takes financial budget motions.

Minister for Communications Richard Bruton is on ministerial questions, followed by Leaders’ Questions at noon.

Leo Varadkar will also take questions on promised legislation, as well as Taoiseach’s questions.

Pre-European Council statements will also be taken.

Fianna Fáil has a PMB on the use of electric scooters.

The Health and Childcare Support (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2019 is at second stage.

The Family Law Bill 2019 is set to conclude all stages.

Seanad

Senators Colette Kelleher and Lynn Ruane’s PMB, Traveller Culture and History in Education Bill 2018, is at report and final stages.

There will also be statements on sustainable tourism.

Senators Joan Freeman, Victor Boyhan, Brian Ó Domhnaill, Pádraig Ó Céidigh and Michael McDowell have a PMB, the Children’s Digital Protection Bill.

Committees

The Health Committee has pre-legislative scrutiny of the General Scheme of Human Tissue (Transplantation, Post-mortem, Anatomical Examination and Public Display) Bill 2018.

Justice and Equality resumes its hearing on online harassment and harmful communications.

The Housing Committee has pre-legislative scrutiny of the Land Development Agency Bill.

Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht has a session on the “importance of dance as a performance art and related matters”.

The Joint Committee on Climate Action reviews the IPCC “Special Report on Climate Change and land use”.

European Affairs will assess the annual report of the European Court of Auditors.