This Week: Retail spending data set to confirm strong first half
Results from Ryanair, Tullow Oil, Ardagh Group, Intel, Amazon and Facebook
June data on retail spending looks set to confirm a strong first half of the year as a resurgent economy, falling prices and higher personal income see more spending at the till. Photograph: Bryan O’Brien
Indicators: Euro-zone consumer confidence flash (Jul).
Ryanair investors only have to look at the line of striking pilots outside Dublin airport recently to wonder if the budget airline’s guaranteed returns are a thing of the past, relatively speaking.
Reporting first-quarter results on Monday, its own industrial relations problems as well as those elsewhere – air-traffic control strikes leading to other flight cancellations – will be to the fore of shareholder thoughts.
Still, it takes more than that to deal much of a blow to confidence. Ahead of the Ryanair numbers, Davy has predicted net income of €304 million and full-year estimates of €1,314 million against guidance of between €1,250 million and €1,350 million.
“We expect underlying ancillary revenues to be strong (we assume 9 per cent per pax for the year) and reported ancillary numbers to be even stronger in H1,” it said.
Last week, however, Ryanair confirmed the cancellation of further flights between Ireland and the UK due to strike action, a new and unwelcome experience for management. That followed an earlier one-day stoppage.
About 100 of Ryanair’s 350 pilots in Ireland are now members of the Irish Airlines Pilots’ Association.
Indicators: Euro-zone composite, marketing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) flash (Jul); German composite, marketing and services PMI flash (Jul); US house price index (May), composite, marketing and services PMI flash (Jul).
Indicators: Euro-zone loan growth and money supply (Jun); UK finance mortgage approvals (Jun), business optimism index (Q3); German business climate, current conditions and expectations (Jul).
Results: Intel, Ardagh Group, Howden Joinery, Bristol Myers Squibb, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Saint-Gobain Group, Amazon, American Airlines, Under Armour, McDonald’s, Xerox, Starbucks, Expedia, Mastercard, Spotify.
Indicators: Irish overseas travel (Jun); euro-zone deposit facility rate, marginal lending rate; German consumer confidence (Aug).
Meetings: European Central Bank interest rate decision; Dublin Chamber Tourism briefing and networking event (Dublin Chamber, Clare Street, Dublin 2).
Indicators: Irish retail sales (Jun); US nationwide housing prices (Jul), GDP (Q2).
Meetings: Cork Chamber summer garden party (Maryborough Hotel gardens, Douglas, Co Cork).
June data on retail spending looks set to confirm a strong first half of the year as the combination of a resurgent economy, falling prices and higher personal income see more and more spending at the till.
In May, core retail sales rose by 1.5 per cent, up 4.7 per cent on the year. Retail prices were simultaneously dropping, down 1 per cent for the year.
In a note last month, Davy said a “solid increase” was likely for the first six months, predicting overall growth of 3.2 per cent for the year and 3 per cent in 2019.
“Once again the best-performing sectors are those which suffered badly during the recession, big-ticket items and discretionary purchases, where spending is now bouncing back,” it reported.
Sales of hardware paints and glass were up, aided by the recovery in homebuilding activity. Furniture and lighting saw rises too, as did electrical goods. Department store sales grew by 6.4 per cent and non-specialised stores including supermarkets saw gains of 4.8 per cent.
However, Friday’s figures, while welcome, will come as other factors such as Brexit and online shopping continue to put pressure on traditional shops.
Retail Excellence, the largest of the representative organisations, recently called for “targeted solutions” for retailers in October’s budget, including additional online supports and “tax fairness measures”.