Tony Keenan’s tips: Punchestown Thursday
Worth sticking with Unowhatimeanharry despite Cheltenham setback
Powersbomb has improved since going chasing and is worth chancing at big prices. Photograph: James Crombie/Inpho.
Punchestown 5:30 - Unowhatimeanharry Looking for instances of ‘recency’ bias, where recent events are accorded too much importance, can be a way into betting markets and it is better to judge a horse on its overall form rather than an aberrant run. Unowhatimeanharry was the pick of the staying division all season prior to Cheltenham and likely ran to a higher level in winning the Cleeve Hurdle than Nichols Canyon did at the festival. That one could have more in him over staying trips but the reaction to Unowhatimeanharry’s last defeat seems excessive.
Punchestown 6:05 - Sadler’s Risk Plenty of these have scope to improve but few are as well-treated as the seemingly exposed Sadler’s Risk off a mark of 137. A 150-rated hurdler at his peak, a current chase figure of 154 suggests his abilities remain undiminished despite a long career. His declining hurdles mark seems more a by-product of running over the smaller obstacles sparingly and when in need of the outing, a point made by his trainer recently. He gets his ideal conditions of a right-handed track and decent ground too. Punchestown 6:40 - Powersbomb This race has distinct chaos potential with the favourite Great Field an erratic jumper that could get taken on for the lead; Ballyoisin, Townshend and Listen Dear have all made the running in recent starts. That could set things up for more conservatively ridden types like Ball D’Arc and Ordinary World but Powersbomb is worth chancing at big prices. He’s improved since going chasing and has showed latent ability on a number of recent starts.