Opinion

Covid-19: Government must stop keeping us all in the dark

Leaders must shift from telling people what they can’t do to what they can do – safely

It’s time to let people meet outdoors. Above, Poolbeg in Dublin. Photograph: Stephen Collins/Collins

Pat Leahy's face
Pat Leahy
Sat Mar 13 2021 - 01:00

Politics is strangely paralysed right now – almost in lockdown. The Government rolls with the punches, delivered not so much by the Opposition but by a spiky media and an impatient public, divided between those chafing under continuing restrictions, those wary of blundering into a fourth wave and those who manage to hold both views – all united by a growing, narky impatience with the pace of the vaccinations.

The pandemic dominates everything, but the natural contentions of politics are largely absent. The Opposition is critical but does not offer comprehensive alternative strategies.

The political division that emerged last month between Government and Opposition over the zero-Covid option has eased in recent weeks. The zero-Covid crew might have been right a year ago, one official confesses, but it’s hard to make a case for it with the vaccination under way. There has been little talk of it lately.

Though it doesn't fit the narrative of blaming the Government exclusively for the third wave, surveys after Christmas suggested that lots of people didn't observe the restrictions

Despite the public's loss of trust in the Government for its handling of the pandemic, the Coalition parties' aggregate support hovers roughly around the level it was 13 months ago at the general election, with the obvious qualification that a good chunk of Fianna Fáil support has shuffled over to Fine Gael. The pandemic hasn't upended politics yet. It might still, of course.

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In this strange otherworld of temporary political stasis, the Government must make some of the biggest decisions of its life in the coming weeks.

The current lockdown is due to expire on Easter Monday, April 5th. Noises from Government suggest that the likely plan is for a minimal reopening next month, followed by something more ambitious in May, but the details of any of this haven’t yet been decided. Along with the rollout of the vaccine, these are do-or-die challenges for the Government; it is hard to see a future if its fluffs this.

Trickiest task

In deciding the path towards the reopening of the economy and society, perhaps the trickiest task will be choosing a pace and scale of reopening that will be accepted and adhered to by the public. Move too fast, and the Government risks a resurgence of the virus with consequent infections and deaths, resulting in a catastrophic fourth lockdown, an outcome that would surely destroy its credibility for good.

But move too slowly and the dreadful social, educational, developmental and economic damage will be worse than it needs to be. That damage is measured in domestic violence figures, in the strain on families, in ruined businesses, livelihoods and hopes for the future – in sheer misery.

And also: if the lockdown – which is, according to Our World in Data, the second-strictest in the world – remains in place more or less unchanged, people may take matters into their own hands. Anyone can see that public observation of the current draconian restrictions is fraying, and has been for some weeks.

The lesson from the third wave seems to be to avoid groups of people meeting indoors. In that case, let them do things outdoors

Though it doesn’t fit the narrative of blaming the Government exclusively for the third wave, surveys after Christmas suggested that lots of people didn’t observe the restrictions in December (Pollster Ireland Thinks reported people’s view that over a third of people didn’t believe their friends and family had observed the restrictions).

It seems clear that, although a minority of people are not complying, most people are straining to observe most of the current restrictions. But their commitment to continue doing so will not be endless.

The most recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll suggests a time limit on their co-operation: when the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated. Once that has been achieved, then public consent for and co-operation with the restrictions will wither away pretty quickly.

The task for the Government is to judge the public mood and dovetail the easing of the restrictions with it: the reopening needs to be paced such that the public continues to observe those restrictions that will remain for some time yet. These are not just decisions to be handed down from the Olympian heights and followed blindly. One Minister puts it more simply: “We need to get the public to come with us.”

Let’s go outside

It might also help if some of the more illogical aspects of the lockdown were relaxed. Malachy Clerkin wrote in these pages last Monday about the unfairness and pointlessness of the continuing ban on children's outdoor sport. They could usefully start there.

Far from undermining co-operation with the continuing restrictions, getting rid of the stupid stuff would only enhance it. Ditto golf, and public worship. Also travelling for exercise and meeting people outdoors (with the need for social distancing emphasised).

The lesson from the third wave seems to be to avoid groups of people meeting indoors. In that case, let them do things outdoors. The public has more or less reached its limit on staying at home. The emphasis should shift from telling people what they can’t do, to telling them what they can do safely.

There is an understandable fear in Nphet that any reopening at all gives a signal to the public that party time is back. But you’d have to hope that it’s not just the Government has learned from its mistakes; everyone else has too.

Previous decision-making processes have taken place mostly behind closed doors. It would be better to have a more accessible process this time. The public health experts should say what level of cases, along with other indicators, make reopening possible. This is complex, but surely not insurmountably so. Ministers and public officials should be honest and transparent about weighing up the threats of easing the lockdown with the costs (in every sense) of maintaining it. We all know that’s what is going on behind the scenes. The jostling with Nphet has already started. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but they might as well be upfront about it. This time, tell us what’s going on.

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