Boris Johnson’s majority is more fragile than it seems

For the Tories, Christmas has come precisely 12 days early. The party has smashed through the so-called Red Wall of Labour seats across the midlands and the north of England – due to a surge in working-class support, wide electoral aversion to Jeremy Corbyn and a clarity of message all its rivals lacked. But the foundations of this 80-seat majority – the largest Tory majority since the height of Thatcherism in the 1980s – are more fragile than they seem.

For the moment, the Tories are triumphant. A majority this large gives Boris Johnson considerable breathing space. He is no longer beholden to the hardline Eurosceptics in his party – who angled for a no-deal Brexit at every turn. He’s expelled the Tory Brexit rebels too – so there is no concern of Dominic Grieve or David Gauke snapping at his heels as he pushes through waves of Brexit legislation. And having won such a convincing landslide, Johnson is no longer under the thumb of the tricksy DUP either.

Majorities of this scale cannot be easily overturned in a single election cycle. It would be an almost unprecedented feat for Labour to win even enough seats for a hung parliament when the next election comes round.

But while the Tory victory seems overwhelming, new tensions will emerge over the next term. And while Labour’s calamitous performance on Thursday might may lead the Tories to feel that they have nothing to learn from their crushed opponents, they would be wise to take note of Labour’s experience.

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The broad electoral coalition between middle-class urbanites and working-class voters from the north and midlands that sustained Labour throughout the post-war period has now all but entirely collapsed. And maintaining support from the irreconcilably divided leavers in the North and the remainers in the cities became an untenable task.

Corbyn failure

In his attempts to neutralise the Brexit question, Corbyn tried to appeal to both camps. For the leavers, he proved his Eurosceptic credentials with the promise of renegotiating a Brexit deal. And for the remainers in his ranks, he offered a second referendum. But rather than appealing to both he contrived to appeal to neither – leavers saw Labour as the possible party of remain, while remainers couldn’t countenance voting for a party that could barely muster lukewarm enthusiasm for their cause.

The Shire Tories are essentially Thatcherite. They are hostile to tax rises and increases in public spending

That Corbyn’s Brexit strategy – sensible though it may be on paper – led to such a staggering electoral failure should come as little surprise. Life was made increasingly difficult for those Labour candidates in Leave-voting northern seats as the Red Wall collapsed and the Conservatives, with their endlessly repeated pledge to “get Brexit done”, hoovered up Labour votes. In Remain areas – Kensington being a notable example – voters fled Labour for the Liberal Democrats, splitting the base and letting the Tories in through the gap.

It turns out that running a national campaign designed to appeal to diametrically opposed groups is not easy. And as the Conservatives captured traditional Labour voters with their manifesto promises of increased public spending and curbing immigration – their engorged parliamentary party now accommodates some uncomfortable coalitions of its own.

The Conservatives are now tasked with maintaining the fine balance between their traditional base of so-called “Shire” Tories and the new Labour converts in their ranks. The Shire Tories are wealthier, economically liberal, vastly overrepresented in the cabinet and essentially Thatcherite in their nature. By instinct, they are hostile to tax rises and increases in public spending too.

Working-class wave

The working-class wave that appears to have granted the Tories their landslide adds to their ranks MPs who represent voters who couldn’t be more different. These Red Wall Tories – like the Labour leavers – are socially conservative, and broadly speaking poorer. What they share with the Tories’ traditional base is a belief in Brexit and a scepticism of the benefits of immigration.

Johnson's version of Brexit is likely to be actively harmful to the manufacturing regions his party now represents

And as the Tory benches fills with these MPs from the north and west midlands, Johnson’s Brexit negotiations will throw up a whole array of new political considerations, with his imagined version of Brexit likely to be actively harmful to the manufacturing regions his party now represents. If Johnson gets the Brexit deal he claims he wants, the UK will leave the EU’s regulatory orbit and costly new processes will be introduced for these manufacturing businesses to trade into the EU – their biggest market. It will make many of these companies unviable. Who will the Tories blame when plants close and jobs are lost?

As he surfs the wave of victory, Johnson is likely unaware of this challenge. On tax, spending and Brexit, his party is riven by profound intellectual differences, and will need to placate wildly different consitutencies. He can count on five, maybe 10, years of rule, and will no doubt sleep well tonight. But whether his rest will be as easy over the coming years is a matter far from settled.