Just another bear market rally?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoyed its best month in 46 years in October, soaring 14 per cent, but November’s rocky start suggests recent strength may be no more than another bear market rally.

October’s advance was furious, but the rally again stopped short of the index’s 200-day moving average.

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October’s spike represents the fifth major bounce this year, cautions Compound Capital Advisors’ Charlie Bilello, with the previous four all ultimately faltering and followed by lower lows. Major monthly moves have become de rigueur in 2022, notes Bespoke Investment, with the S&P 500 seeing five monthly moves of at least 7.5 per cent in either direction — a rate unseen since the 1930s.

Indeed, the S&P 500 enjoyed an even bigger spike in July than in October, only to soon hit new lows.

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Some bulls note we have entered into what is ordinarily a seasonally strong period for stocks. Again, however, there is a caveat — statistically, year-end rallies only happen in bull markets, says Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts, suggesting we “shouldn’t be getting too excited” just yet.