Robert Shiller

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The cyclically adjusted earnings yield on the S&P 500 is only 2.6%. This is at crash-warning levels, by historical standards. Photograph: iStock

“Never make forecasts, especially about the future.” Nobody knows who said this first. The point, however, is that we have to make forecasts, or at le(...)

The big questions are whether real interest rates will jump, and how soon. Photograph: Bloomberg

Are stock markets, especially the US market, in a bubble that is sure to pop? The answer depends on prospects for corporate earnings and interest rate(...)

Economist Robert Shiller has developed a new measure, the excess Cape yield, which considers both equity valuations and interest rates. Photograph: Taylor Hill/Getty Images

Investors who see the United States market as dangerously overvalued invariably cite the work of Nobel economist Robert Shiller, but it seems the Yale(...)

Ordinary investors have been sceptical ever since this rally began in March. Photograph: iStock

Stock market sentiment has plummeted following the correction. US equity funds recently recorded their third-largest weekly outflows, according to Ban(...)

Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller and author of Narrative Economics: ‘A lot of what happens economically actually depends on the stories we tell each other and a lot of what people do is not really optimal for them.’ Photograph:  Taylor Hill/Getty Images

Economics is driven by the stories we tell each other, and those which become very popular have the power to drive economic events like stock market c(...)

US stocks have experienced their fastest-ever move from all-time highs to a bear market. Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

The longest bull market in history has been followed by the fastest bear market in history. No two bear markets are the same and the current one is un(...)

Various behavioural biases impact on how  investors react to an uncertain market climate. Photograph:  Eamonn Farrell/

Investor nerves have been jangling since Covid-19 infected the stock market. Some strategists say a vicious bear market is ahead, while others argue t(...)

Dominic Cummings, special adviser to the British prime minister, Boris Johnson. Universally hailed as some kind of genius, Cummings is a candidate for some revisionist history

Every time they confront reality, Brexiteers lose. That’s why it’s important for them to remain in their parallel universe where facts, truth and cons(...)

Most of the Fanmags – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Apple, and Google – are “trading at valuations nearly as rich as they have ever traded,” according to investor Rob Arnott. Photograph: Alastair Pike/AFP/Getty Images

Investors should avoid the broader US market and be especially wary of certain technology stocks that are, like bitcoin and controversial electric car(...)

Federal Reserve chief  Jerome Powell  has come under pressure from markets and Donald Trump to cut rates. Photograph: Reuters/Brendan McDermid

Stocks may be flying high in 2019 but analysts aren’t nearly as cheery as investors right now. According to Citigroup’s earnings revisions index, anal(...)

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