One last push in four byelections

Good morning.

Today is the last day of campaigning in the four byelection campaigns in Dublin Mid-West, Fingal, Cork North-Central and Wexford, with polls opening tomorrow at 7am. The votes will be counted in the four constituencies on Saturday morning, and we should know results by mid-afternoon. The new TDs can then take their seats on Tuesday.

Byelections are difficult to call - low turnout, one-seat counts, absence of (and sometimes hostility from) the big beasts of the local party organisations along with an absence of any polling means that it’s very difficult to get a handle on what exactly, if anything, is happening on the ground.

But we can say a few things. Fine Gael seems to have zeroed in on Dublin Mid-West as its best hope, and the party seems to be deeply conflicted on whether it actually wants Verona Murphy to win in Wexford following her repeated comments about immigrants.

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Fianna Fáil is anticipating a good day with perhaps two wins in Wexford and Cork. The Greens are on the hunt in Fingal, and “Green Independent” Paul Gogarty could yet take Mid-West. Labour is daring to hope it could win in Fingal and so give itself a signal that the must-wins of the next election, neighbouring Louth and Dublin Bay North, could be achievable. Sinn Féin is desperate to show some progress after dreadful elections last year and at the start of the summer.

And our podcast yesterday discussed the campaigns and (mostly unwisely, this) ventured guesses at the outcomes.

Fine Gael's Dáil numbers are under severe pressure, especially with the impending departure of Dara Murphy to the European Commission.

Moreover, there is, don't forget, a no-confidence motion in Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy coming up next week. Although, as we report today, Fianna Fáil will stick by the confidence-and-supply agreement and abstain.

Of course, the Wexford result will be the most closely watched. Mis-speak or not, Murphy’s comments about immigrants have defined the campaign there (at least as far as the media is concerned), and her performance will be interpreted in light of them - not least by politicians who are constantly seeking to judge the public’s mind.

Unlike other European countries, immigration has simply not been a political issue in Ireland during the past decade and a half - which has seen a significant influx of people from other, mostly European, countries.

There is no reason, of course, why the lack of political focus on immigration has to continue. Our off-lead today features a warning by the Human Rights Commission about politicians who make anti-minority and - more controversially - a suggestion there should be sanctions for politicians who do so. The report, for the UN carried out by the Human Rights Commission, makes specific reference to comments by Peter Casey and Noel Grealish.

The Taoiseach is likely to be asked about that when he pops his head up canvassing today (likely but not yet fixed, party honchos said last night).

Today we also report a warning from Garda Commissioner Drew Harris yesterday. Right-wing extremism, he says, is arriving in Ireland. Conor Lally has the story.

Boris boost in latest opinion poll

There’s another election on in the UK, of course, and last night there was a major moment. A massive YouGov poll, with a 100,000-strong sample and using methodology that uniquely predicted the outcome in 2017, has predicted a big majority for Boris Johnson.

If the election was held this Thursday, YouGov's poll puts the Tories on 359 seats, a gain of 42 on 2017, while Labour would lose 51 seats and the Liberal Democrats would gain just one to secure 13 constituencies. This would give Johnson a majority of 68. Here's the Guardian story.

Listeners to our special podcast last Friday with pollster Kevin Cunningham will have heard him predict much the same range, but this is the moment in the campaign when the prospect of a big win for Boris has firmed up. That may spark a reaction, of course, and polling day is still two weeks away. But it’s fairly clear that something big will have to change if Johnson is not going to win. And at this stage it’s hard to see what that might be.

The report on the YouGov poll is here, while Finn McRedmond says there are no good choices in the election.

Best reads

Today's lead story is another warning from the Fiscal Advisory Council about corporation tax revenue.

The internal audit report on the FAI is being referred to . . . the gardaí.

Newton Emerson's reflections on the push for a united Ireland: unite the North first.

Meanwhile, former loyalist leader Billy Hutchinson says that unionism must take its head out of the sand on the issue.

Miriam has her say on Dara Murphy.

Playbook

Lots of last-minute canvassing, you can be sure, with Ministers, TDs, fresh-faced youths and gnarled old warriors all making one last push in the byelections.

The Dáil will be even more sparsely populated than usual, although there are communications questions with Ricky “Broadband” Bruton, Leaders’ Questions and the weekly votes to entertain spectators.

Pick of the committee meetings will be at the foreign affairs committee, where Minister for Defence Paul Kehoe will take a break from his enthusiastic advocacy for Verona Murphy in Wexford to answer questions about recruitment and retention in the Defence Forces, which is going almost as well as that campaign.

Elsewhere this morning, President Higgins is hosting a reception for visitors from the UN in Dublin for a conference on global peacekeeping, while the Government is launching its first LGTBI+ strategy.

And that's it for this morning. You can keep up with all the above and other exciting developments throughout the day on irishtimes.com.

It is, of course, the last Thursday of November, so happy Thanksgiving to our great cousins from across the sea, as Churchill called them. Just as the Pilgrim Fathers of Plymouth, having given thanks to the Lord, sat down and feasted with native Americans of the Wampanoag tribe, so millions of Americans will today sit down with their families to stuff their faces with turkey and fall asleep in front of the television.

Of course within a generation, the colonists were at war with the natives, an encounter that did not end well for the home side, resulting as it did in them being grievously discriminated against to the extent of being massacred.

So even if you’re fed up with the byelections, remember that (as Winston also said) jaw-jaw is better than war-war. And do have a truly fruity Thanksgiving.