Covid-19: Urge to ‘save Christmas’ one reason for remarkable Government volte-face

Good morning.

One story dominates the headlines this morning: the Government’s decision, announced last night in a televised address to the nation by Taoiseach Micheál Martin, to move to a Level 5 lockdown for six weeks.

It's our lead story and everyone else's too. "We all have to dig deep" says the Daily Mail in its front page headline. The Examiner reports the Taoiseach's words: "There is hope". The Indo is less upbeat. Its (Shakespearean) page one klaxons: "Now is the winter of our discontent".

After two weeks of increasingly apocalyptic warnings from the public health experts in Nphet – warnings the Government made a virtue of overruling, citing its wider responsibilities – the leaders of the Coalition parties agreed yesterday morning to heed the warnings and go for the full Level 5 monty until December. For some people, there will have been a sigh of relief; for others, a groan of resignation. Here we go again.

Six weeks of Level 5: Non-essential shops to close, no visitors to homes and a 5km travel limit

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With dramatic Level 5 U-turn, Government weakens its own authority

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Covid 19: A moral dilemma for society

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The Irish Times view on the new Covid-19 restrictions: Admission of failure

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Whatever your reaction, it's a helluva U-turn by the Government. My analysis on this point is here, and Sarah Burns's guide to what the new restrictions mean is here.

The motivation behind the change was the desire to take action now to restore some sort of normality over Christmas (but what happens after that?) and also the realisation that existing restrictions were failing so far to slow the spread of the virus sufficiently. But it also comes from fear that Nphet was right all along, and the Government was wrong.

Before the weekend, the leadership of the Government was prepared to see cases mount up as long as the pressure on hospitals and ICUs especially did not threaten to overwhelm them. These numbers remain relatively low compared to the first wave – about 300 in hospital, 30 in intensive care units.

But over the weekend, and early yesterday, the view in Government Buildings changed. Various insider accounts this morning point to the change of mind on the part of Tánaiste Leo Varadkar in this process.

Whatever the exact trajectory of the change, it’s hard to conclude anything except the Government’s authority is diminished by the volte-face. And as businesses are shuttered across the country, there are hard weeks ahead.

There's comprehensive coverage on the pandemic here, with other reports here, here and here. Simon Carswell's analysis is here.

And as always we try to bring you the international context. Wales goes into lockdown, and Belgium follows France and imposes a curfew. Even Germany is under pressure.

The two other big political stories are the US election and Brexit. Brief yourself on the swing states, and impress your friends on those Zoom calls.

Meanwhile, news from the campaign trail is here, and sign up for Washington Correspondent Suzanne Lynch's daily briefing email.

And on Brexit, some signals yesterday that a deal might still be on the cards, while the Johnson government's bill to set aside elements of the withdrawal agreement was flayed in the House of Lords yesterday, Denis Staunton reports.

Best reads

Fintan O'Toole on the lack of women involved in pandemic decision making at the highest level – and its other shortcomings.

Our editorial gloomily observes that another lockdown isn't "living with Covid" - it's the opposite.

Cliff Taylor on the economic consequences now set to unfold.

Lara Marlowe reports from Paris on the fallout from the beheading (yes) of a Paris teacher by an Islamic fundamentalist.

Playbook

The Cabinet is due to have its regular weekly meeting today, where among the agenda items will be legislation underpinning fines for violating some of the new Covid restrictions. It’s a bit of a minefield, so let us hope the Government’s customary sure-footedness does not desert it.

After that, the morning will see intense analysis of what the new restrictions mean for various sectors, and reaction to them. The battered hospitality sector can be expected to have its say; similarly, retail and services. The inevitable contradictions in the plan will be interrogated.

In the Dáil, expect Sinn Féin to demand the Government call in the banks to reinstate loan holidays and to prevent any evictions.

Meanwhile, the wrangling will begin between the Department of Education and the teaching unions over how to keep the schools open. As observed hereabouts before, it’s hard to overstate the political importance of this for the Government.

The full Dáil schedule can be found here. It's a ludicrously long day, beginning at 2pm and finishing at 12.45am when Simon Harris will conclude not some emergency debate but just regular parliamentary oral questions. You'd wonder if the Dail can't order its own business in a more sensible way – and it telling other people how to do their business?

The committee schedule is here.