Israel in recent days has been discussing the possibility of carrying out air strikes to destroy what is left of Iran’s enriched uranium. However, the feasibility of such an option is unclear and a ground operation may be required to seize the uranium.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) believes 440kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity remained in Iran after the 12-day war in June, when the US struck three underground nuclear facilities.
Enriched uranium is the critical component needed to create a nuclear weapon. Enrichment from 60 per cent to 90 per cent, the level required for a nuclear bomb, is a relatively simple and short process.
It is difficult to see Iran agreeing to destroy or transfer the enriched uranium to a third party and it is also unlikely that the US and Israel would agree to end the war without a solution to this issue. They will want to ensure Iran cannot return to nuclear threshold status in a few years’ time.
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A New York Times report last weekend suggested that Iran may be able to access and move the stockpile that had been previously thought to have been buried underground by US strikes on Isfahan.
The report said US intelligence agencies have determined there was now a “very narrow access point” through which the uranium could potentially be retrieved.
Iran has refused to acknowledge what happened to the stockpile and has not allowed IAEA inspectors access to sites where enrichment took place. The watchdog’s chief, Rafael Grossi, said that about 200kg of the enriched uranium was probably still at Isfahan, with some also at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.
Both Tel Aviv and Washington have listed ending Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear bomb as an aim of the war. Tehran has always insisted that its nuclear programme is for peaceful energy purposes, but US envoy Steve Witkoff, who led negotiations with Iran last month, said top Iranian negotiators boasted about having enough highly enriched uranium to build 11 nuclear bombs.
It is believed American and Israeli intelligence have been closely monitoring all the sites that were bombed in June to make sure Iran has not removed the uranium, which is believed to be in gas form and held in special containers.
US president Donald Trump said he would not rule out sending ground troops into Iran to enter the tunnels and secure or destroy the enriched uranium. “At some point maybe we will. That would be a great thing,” he told reporters. “We haven’t gone after it, but it’s something we could do later.”
An operation by Israeli commandos or a joint operation is also possible.
Such a move would mark the first major commitment of US or Israeli ground forces as part of the campaign, but such a complex operation would pose a huge challenge if the highly radioactive material is to be safely extracted.
In addition to the special forces a relatively large number of additional troops would be required to secure the entire area and prevent an Iranian attack. Air defence measures would also be needed to thwart Iranian rocket or drone strikes.
Heavy engineering equipment would likely be required to remove rubble left by the June bombing and there is a danger of radiation emissions.
Due to the complexity of such an operation the US and Israel may opt instead to continue monitoring of the site through satellite imagery and intelligence collection, followed by additional strikes if Iranian activity is detected.
