France voted in the final round of closely-watched local elections on Sunday that have fired the starting gun on presidential elections in 2027, in which incumbent Emmanuel Macron cannot run. What are the main takeaways?
1. The far-right failed to take key cities
The far right National Rally of Marine Le Pen deployed national deputies and MEPs to contest local elections and poured resources into key races in a bid to create momentum for 2027.
However, their mayoral candidates were defeated by the left-wing in Marseilles and Nimes and by a right-wing Coalition in Toulon – all cities where they had high hopes of winning – denying the party a flagship victory to kick-start their presidential campaign.
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That didn’t stop the party claiming a “resounding victory”.
The party did double its number of elected municipal councillors compared to a previous record achieved in 2014, and took heart in the election of a candidate from an allied party as mayor of Nice.
Le Pen’s protege Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old MEP who may be the party’s presidential candidate, portrayed the second-round vote on Sunday as “the start of a rebirth” in advance of next year’s contest.
While the party has consolidated its base, the results suggest it still struggles to win over a plurality or majority of voters among larger electorates. However ...
2. Local elections are different from the presidential contest
The voting system is slightly different for the municipal elections, with several candidates allowed into the second round, unlike the two-way contest of the presidential vote.
French local elections are 35,000 unique races, each shaped by particular electorates, small-town issues, and big personalities. Certain parties reliably do better, and others worse, than in national contests.
A poll released on Sunday showed that the party’s youthful president Bardella would be by far the most popular presidential candidate in a first round contest, winning 36 per cent of votes among a wide field of options.
The most popular candidate after him was the centrist former prime minister Edouard Philippe, on 18 per cent. He has his eye fixed on contesting the presidency as a Macron successor after he successfully won re-election this weekend as mayor of Le Havre.
3. The Socialists are not a spent force
The Socialists won in Marseilles and scored a major victory in Paris, where Emmanuel Grégoire secured their best result since 2001 and keeps city hall in party hands after 25 years in power.
Grégoire led a joyful victory procession at the head of a convoy of bicycles, symbolising an intent to persevere with policies that reduced car traffic in the city under outgoing Socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo.
It came despite conditions in the second round that had been expected to favour Grégoire’s centre-right rival, the former minister Rachida Dati. She had formed an allegiance with centrists, the far-right had pulled out of the race to favour her victory and president Macron was even reported to be favouring her victory.
Meanwhile, Grégoire faced losing votes to a rival left-wing candidate, Sophia Chikirou of the France Unbowed party of firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who painted the Socialists as sell-outs in her campaign. Chikirou ultimately won 8 per cent of the vote, while Dati took 41.5 per cent.
Such results are likely to reignite a contentious debate among the left about how to best favour its chances, given Mélenchon’s determination to run for president again next year after a defeat in the first round in 2022.
The answers may not be simple because ...
4. Unity doesn’t always win
In several contests, a decision by the Socialist Party to make an alliance with France Unbowed was not rewarded by voters.
Left-wing unity candidates fared worse than expected in Brest, Clermont-Ferrand and Limoges, while incumbent Green mayors on left-wing unity tickets lost elsewhere.
This is the kind of electoral arithmetic that will be studied closely by political parties of all stripes to determine their strategy for 2027.
For Macron’s deputy Europe minister Benjamin Haddad, the lesson was already clear.
“The centre and the right must unite to speak with one voice in the presidential election,” he told French media. “Division leads to defeat.”
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