Main Points
- The White House has said that US president Donald Trump will ‘unleash hell’ if Iran does not accept it has been defeated
- Iran’s foreign minister has said the country is not in talks with US but is reviewing an earlier proposal to end the almost month-old war and that exchanging messages with mediators ‘does not mean negotiations’
- Israel is seeking to expand a security buffer zone in the south of Lebanon as part of its campaign against Iran-backed Hizbullah, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said
- Iran has told intermediaries that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire agreement with the United States and Israel
- The conflict in the Middle East is ‘out of control’, United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday, with the world now ‘staring down the barrel of a wider war’
Key Reads
- Amid the rubble of a Lebanese city, locals count their dead
- Why the rehashed 15-point peace plan will not appease Tehran
- Trump turns on Starmer over Iran: ‘What if Donald shouts at me?’
That concludes today’s live coverage of the US-Israel war on Iran and conflict in the wider Middle East region.
For a comprehensive recap on Wednesday’s developments you can read Mark Weiss’s latest article.
[ Iran rejects US peace plan, offers its own conditions to end warOpens in new window ]
Minister accused of ‘raiding’ climate action fund
Parliamentary Correspondent Marie O’Halloran reports: Social Democrats TD Eoin Hayes has accused Minister for Energy Darragh O’Brien of authorising a “20-month raiding of the climate action fund” through the legislation to cut the National Oil Reserve Agency (Nora) levy.
He claimed the Minister could “with the flick of a pen” order a €200 million tax cut, drastically affecting the climate action fund.
The emergency Bill was passed in the Dáil on Wednesday evening without a vote after five hours of debate and enables the 2-cent cut per litre of the Nora levy, which applies to petroleum products.
The cut is effective for two months from April 1st to June 1st but its provisions allow for its extension if required, by an order of the Minister.
But the Social Democrats TD said the Minister did not “acknowledge in his opening remarks” that the levy could be cut for a further 18 months beyond June.
“Two months would cost €20 million, which means 18 more months would cost a whopping €180 million.
“A potential €200 million reduction in the public finances is worrying. With this Bill, the Dáil is being asked, in effect, to preapprove a tax cut of up to €200 million at the sole discretion of one Minister.”
He said the Nora income is used to finance the Climate Action Fund and virtually all its money comes from the agency.
Hayes said the 2 cent per litre “is the total funding for the National Oil Reserves Agency, coming to about €120 million in income for the agency in 2024, according to its financial statements”.
The Dublin Bay South TD said in 2024 the fund gave €8 million to a community climate action programme for local authorities and €10 million to the school photovoltaic programme to fund solar panels for schools.
A further €17 million went to the Bord na Móna bog rehabilitation scheme and €58 million to the public sector energy efficiency scheme to reduce energy demand.
Hayes said the Dáil sat until 11pm on Tuesday to authorise a package of €250 million in supports to help ease the soaring fuel prices stemming from the conflict in Iran.
But it seems O’Brien “can just change the fiscal position of the strategic oil reserves by €200 million with the flick of a pen and with no oversight by the Dáil, no authorisation from the Cabinet and absolutely no one else involved.
“Not even the Minister for Finance can bring in a tax cut without the Taoiseach authorising it. A €200 million tax cut is a very big deal. It has consequences for the fiscal and financial position of the State.
Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire deal, says Iran
Iran has told intermediaries that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire agreement with the United States and Israel, six regional sources familiar with Iran’s position said, linking an end of the war to a halt to Israel’s offensive against Hizbullah.
Iran’s Press TV on Wednesday cited an Iranian official saying Tehran wanted any deal with the United States to secure an end to the war both on Iran and other “resistance groups” in the region.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday that Tehran was still reviewing a US proposal to end the regional war raging for nearly a month, indicating that Tehran had so far stopped short of rejecting it outright.
The six regional sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said Tehran had informed mediators as early as mid-March that it sought a deal that would also stop Israel’s attacks on Lebanese armed group Hizbullah.
Hizbullah was founded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 1982 and is widely seen as the spearhead of Iran’s regional alliance of armed actors.
There was no immediate response from Iran’s foreign ministry, Israel’s foreign ministry or the Israeli military to questions on the matter. – Reuters
Israel ‘determined to fundamentally change the situation in Lebanon’, says Netanyahu
Israel is seeking to expand a security buffer zone in the south of Lebanon as part of its campaign against Hizbullah, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has said.
“The issue of dismantling Hizbullah is now before us. This is connected to the overall campaign against Iran, which is still in full swing despite media reports,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Wednesday night.
“We are determined to fundamentally change the situation in Lebanon.”
Israel launched a fresh campaign against the Iran-backed militia on March 2nd after Hizbullah launched retaliatory rocket attacks in the on-set of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Netanyahu said: “Iran is weaker than ever. It is still trying various means, as you can see, but we have changed how we are perceived.”
The prime minister’s latest statement that Israel is “simply creating a larger buffer zone” at its northern border come amid a report from Human Rights Watch that it is using white phosphorous in its attacks on southern Lebanon.
Earlier, Barham Salih, the UN high commissioner for refugees, said more than 1 million people have been forced to leave their homes within Lebanon as a result of Israel’s actions. The Lebanese health ministry has said Israeli attacks have killed 1,094 people and wounded 3,119, since March 2nd.
Eighteen have been killed in Israel since the war with Iran began on February 28th.
FG TD accuses fuel companies of ‘price gouging’
Fine Gael Offaly TD John Clendennan accused fuel companies of behaving irresponsibly and of “price gouging” as Government cuts on fuel excise come into effect, Marie O’Halloran reports.
Earlier on Wednesday, he said many constituents who contacted him expected prices at the pump to reduce overnight.
“If some of these companies were half as smart in reducing the price as they were in increasing it, they would do a service to consumers today [Wednesday],” he said.
“It is irresponsible how they are behaving. We are seeing price gouging.”
He said the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission should be given more powers and resources to “equip it with the necessary tools to address this as quickly as possible”.
Strait of Hormuz ‘will not return to what it was’, says Iranian military spokesman
An Iranian military spokesman said on Wednesday that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz “will not return to what it was,” and that Iran will determine who is allowed to pass through the strategic waterway.
“The authority to issue passage permits is ours,” the spokesman, Ebrahim Zolfaghari, said in a defiant video statement, adding that the “intensity of the flames” affecting price of oil is “in our hands.”
“Just as you flee from the prolongation of war,” he said, referring to U.S.-backed negotiation efforts, “the power of our armed forces grow stronger with every passing moment”.
In an earlier statement on Wednesday, Zolfaghari said the Americans were “negotiating with yourselves”. – The New York Times
No talks being held with US but proposal being reviewed, says Iranian foreign minister
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said on Wednesday that there were no talks being held with the US.
Araqchi’s latest statement on Wednesday night seemingly contradicts White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s earlier assertion that “the United States has been engaged over the last three days in productive conversations”.
He added that the exchange of messages through mediators “does not mean negotiations with the US”.
Araqchi said that the US proposal to end the war was being reviewed by top authorities in Tehran.
He told Iran’s state TV in an interview that Tehran has no intention to hold talks with the US. – Additional reporting: Reuters
Iran warns unnamed regional country against alleged plan to seize island
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has warned on X that “based on some information, Iran’s enemies, with the backing of a regional country, are preparing to seize one of the Iranian islands.”
The post goes on: “All enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed forces. If they step out of line, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will, without restriction, become the target of relentless attacks.”
Neither the regional country or Iranian island are specified. – The Guardian
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is still fielding questions from the media.
Leavitt was asked if the only other option now to reopen the strait of Hormuz is to put US boots on the ground, given that the US’s allies have said they’re either unable or unwilling to assist.
Leavitt said she won’t answer a hypothetical question, and that the decision is for the president, as commander-in-chief, to make.
Leavitt was then asked what has changed that has made vice-president JD Vance emerge as a more active participant in negotiations with Iran.
“I don’t think anything has changed,” Leavitt said. “The vice-president has always been a key member of the president’s national security team. He’s been part of these discussions, throughout this entire course of the administration.”
She added: “The vice-president has been by the president’s side every step of the way, and any reporting otherwise is just completely false. I see him in the room, again, the president seeks his counsel on all matters, both foreign and domestic.” – The Guardian
Labour TD calls for emergency public transport fare reduction
More from Parliamentary Correspondent Marie O’Halloran: An emergency reduction in public transport fares of at least 10 per cent should be introduced in the short-term “to protect people against prices at the pumps”, Labour transport, energy and climate spokesman Ciarán Ahern said.
He also called for more remote and flexible working and said it is a “real and effective way to protect many people from this present energy crisis”.
The Dublin South-West TD was speaking during a Dáil debate on legislation to cut the National Oil Reservation Agency (Nora) levy on fuel.
He said that during recent yellow weather warnings, “workers were encouraged to work from home where possible. The same logic and support must be provided to workers at this critical time.”
Ahern added that any benefit from the reduction in excise duty and the 2-cent cut to the Nora levy could be “wiped out by the end of the week or even sooner”.
He said the “energy market is so volatile at present – determined, it would seem, by whichever side of the bed Donald Trump wakes up on”.
His party colleague Duncan Smith said “we are living in an era of shock events becoming more regular due to irrational, unpredictable and, quite frankly, dangerous leadership among the big powers”.
He added: “We have a klepto-fascist in the White House” who is engaging in “the manipulation of the markets for profit and using the office of the United States president for personal and familial gain”.
The world’s reliance on fossil fuels “has become the source and impact of global conflict and ultimately”.
It “not only causes deaths in those regions where the wars are taking place but also has an economic shock on ordinary workers and ordinary households elsewhere in the world”.
The Dublin Fingal East TD warned that “We are in a territory we never thought we would be in and we are still playing by almost 1990s rules.
“We are not adapting and we are not flexible, despite all these shock events, conflicts and wars.
“All these things that are becoming more familiar, the impact it is having on home heating oil, the fuel pumps, congestion and climate, we are still reacting like as if it was thirty years ago and not as if it is the 2020s.”
Government sitting on €12.5bn surplus, says Sinn Féin’s Pa Daly
Back home, Marie O’Halloran reports: Sinn Féin energy spokesman Pa Daly has said people could not afford to heat their homes but the Government is sitting on a €12.5 billion surplus.
Fuel costs have gone through the roof but the exchequer gets 60 per cent to 65 per cent of the cost of every litre, he said as the Dáil debated legislation to cut the 2c levy on every litre by the National Oil Reservation Agency (Nora).
Daly hit out at the 2-cent cut per litre on home heating oil as “particularly insulting. It is a slap in the face to the 750,000 households that have seen their prices more than double in the past few weeks.”
He said a lot of those householders are in more rural houses, one-off houses and houses that are owned by older people.
“The 2-cent reduction will be completely wiped out by yet another hike in the regressive carbon tax,” in a number of weeks.
The Kerry TD said “the carbon tax is neither ring-fenced nor is it a behavioural measure as the Comptroller and Auditor General report said” as did the ESRI.
“A just transition does not equate to regressive taxes that punish people who have no alternative,” he said.
The Sinn Féin solution would remove all excise on home heating oil, a saving of €182 on a €1,000 fill. The party would cut petrol and diesel by the maximum permissible amount and “extend the fuel allowance by 13 weeks, not the paltry four”.
Millions displaced in Iran and Lebanon since start of war
The United Nations’ refugee chief urged donors on Wednesday to provide more funds to manage the humanitarian fallout from the widening war in the Middle East, saying his agency had so far received less than 10 per cent of the money it needs.
Thousands have been killed across the region and millions displaced in Iran and Lebanon since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28th, prompting Tehran to retaliate with attacks on Israel, US bases and Gulf states.
Inside Iran, around 3.2 million people have been displaced, while more than one million people have been forced to leave their homes inside Lebanon – roughly 17 per cent of its population – in recent weeks as the humanitarian crisis deepens.
“The number of displaced around the world is unprecedented in history, at a time when the resources have really shrunk,” Barham Salih, the UN high commissioner for refugees said.
“We appealed for the region for $69 million. We’ve only received less than 10 per cent of that so far,” Barham Salih, the UN high commissioner for refugees, told Reuters in an interview in Brussels.
“This is a huge, huge crisis, and people need help.” – Reuters
Leavitt is still taking questions from reporters in the White House.
She has been asked if the United States is providing support for Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, and if Trump is concerned that more than a million people have been displaced.
On the first part of the question, Leavitt says she’s “not in a position to comment” on this.
On the second part, she says “of course” Trump is concerned and that is why it’s important to “eliminate the threat” of the Iranian regime and their proxies, including Hizbullah.
That’s why Trump “wants to see this move as quickly as possible”, she says. – The Guardian
Iran still reviewing US peace proposal, contradicting earlier reports
Somewhat in line with Leavitt’s latest comments in Washington, Reuters reports Iran is still reviewing the US proposal to end the war in the Gulf, despite an initial response that was negative, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday, indicating that Tehran had so far stopped short of rejecting it outright.
Publicly, Iranian officials poured withering scorn on the prospect of any negotiations with the administration of Trump. But an apparent delay in delivering a formal response to Pakistan, which delivered a 15-point proposal on behalf of Washington, appeared to signal that at least some figures in Tehran may be considering it.
The senior Iranian official’s comments that the proposal was still under review – though the initial response was “not positive” – appeared to contradict a report by Iran’s Press TV that cited an unidentified official as saying Iran had rejected it.
A senior Pakistani security official said that Pakistan had followed up with Iran’s foreign minister and was still awaiting a formal reply.
A second Pakistani source said: “The Iranians told us they will get back to us tonight. The media is reporting they’ve said no. But we have not received any official confirmation from Iran. So we are just waiting. They are all underground and communication is big challenge.”
Another senior Iranian official had earlier confirmed that Tehran had received a proposal and said that talks, if they went ahead, could be held in either Pakistan or Turkey. – Reuters
Leavitt insists talks continuing with Iran
Asked about reports that Iran has rejected the US 15-point plan to end the war, Leavitt says “they have not” and insisted talks are continuing.
She says: “However, I saw a 15-point plan that was floated in the media. I would caution reporters in this room from reporting about speculative points, speculative plans from anonymous sources.
“The White House never confirmed that plan. There are elements of truth to it but some of the stories I read were not entirely factual.” – The Guardian
Leavitt said earlier in the briefing: “More than 9,000 enemy targets have been struck to date. Compared to the start of the operation, Iran’s ballistic missile and drone attacks are down by roughly 90 per cent.”
She said the US is “annihilating” Iran’s navy and that it has destroyed 140 vessels, including almost 50 minelayers.
“This is the largest elimination of a navy on the face of the planet in a three-week period since the second World War,” she said.
Leavitt told media in the White House that Trump “is willing to listen” to Iran.
“The United States has been engaged over the last three days in productive conversations” which led Trump to order the temporary halting of “planned strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure only”, she said.
“The remaining elements of the Iranian regime have another opportunity to co-operate president Trump, permanently abandon their nuclear ambitions and cease actively threatening America and our allies. But the president’s preference is always peace ... There does not need to be any more death and destruction ... if Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment ... president Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before.”
Leavitt said Trump is prepared to “unleash hell” on Iran but his preferred option is peace.
She said Iran’s ambitions to construct nuclear weapons “have been crushed”.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is currently briefing the media in Washington, DC.
She said the war on Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, “has been a resounding military triumph”.
Russia evacuates more staff from Iranian nuclear plant
Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom evacuated a further 163 of its staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant on Wednesday, the state-run RIA news agency reported.
It cited Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev as saying about 300 of the company’s staff remained at Bushehr, but more would be leaving.
Russia built the existing nuclear plant at Bushehr and Rosatom is constructing additional units there, although it has suspended building work since the war on Iran began. – Reuters
Oil reserve levy cut worth about €20m over next two months, Dáil told
Parliamentary Correspondent Marie O’Halloran reports: Legislation being rushed through the Dáil and Seanad to cut the National Oil Reserve Agency (Nora) levy by 2 cent a litre will be worth about €20 million over the next two months, the Dáil has heard.
The reduction will come into effect on April 1st for two months but Minister for Energy Darragh O’Brien said he will “provide scope” to allow it to be extended “by way of order” if necessary.
The 2-cent levy charged on most petroleum products is used to fund the operations of the national oil reserves agency and the Climate Action Fund.
Introducing the National Oil Reserves (Amendment) Bill, O’Brien said the agency has operational responsibility for the day-to-day management of the State’s strategic oil reserve.
“It currently holds 90 days of oil stocks,” he said, adding the temporary measures to reduce fuel prices for households and businesses, and the supports for key sectors of the Irish economy “may be adjusted as the situation evolves”.
The Minister said he has asked the national energy affordability taskforce to establish a “dedicated expert advisory subgroup to monitor global supply and supply to Ireland, and to advise on appropriate demand-side responses”.
O’Brien said the group will be established “in the coming days and will provide expert insight into me as Minister and to the Government.
“Supplies in Ireland remain sufficient, but there have been significant price increases arising from the market pressures.”
He stressed the need to ensure any measures “are affordable and sustainable” but they also had to be ready “to respond further should this crisis accelerate” and price inflation worsen.
Wednesday evening recap: What has happened so far today?
- Iran has rejected a 15-point US peace plan, instead offering five of its own counterproposals for ending the almost month-old war.
- US war partner Israel and Iran continued to exchange air strikes, with further attacks aimed by Iran at Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain and Israel.
- More than 4,500 people have been killed since the US and Israel launched their first attacks on Iran on February 28th. Some 800,000 have been displaced from southern Lebanon amid Israel’s ground invasion against Iran-backed Hizbullah.
- Human Rights Watch has said it has verified reports of Israel using white phosphorous munitions in southern Lebanon.
- Hizbullah chief Naim Qassem said Wednesday that negotiating with Israel under fire would amount to “surrender” for Lebanon, as Israel launched new strikes and Hizbullah said it was targeting Israeli troops.
- United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres said the world is now “staring down the barrel of a wider war” with the Middle East conflict “out of control”.
- Brent crude oil was trading near $101 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon, as global energy prices remain high due to the conflict.
- Taoiseach Micheál Martin faced strong criticism from the Opposition in the Dáil over the 2-cent per litre cut to the cost of home heating oil.
Iran could open a new front in the Bab al-Mandab Strait if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory or its islands, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim said, citing an unnamed Iranian military source as saying on Wednesday.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group has previously launched attacks in the region where the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait is located. – Reuters
Negotiating under Israeli fire would amount to ‘surrender’, says Hizbullah chief
Hizbullah chief Naim Qassem said Wednesday that negotiating with Israel under fire would amount to “surrender” for Lebanon, as Israel launched new strikes and Hizbullah said it was targeting Israeli troops.
UN secretary general Antonio Guterres warned that “the Gaza model must not be replicated in Lebanon”, a comparison previously drawn by Israel officials talking about operations in Lebanon.
“Hizbullah must stop launching attacks into Israel. And Israel must stop its military operations and strikes in Lebanon, which are hitting civilians the hardest,” Guterres told reporters at the United Nations. – The Guardian
Brent crude oil trading near $101 a barrel
Oil remained lower as traders weighed a diplomatic push by the US to end the war with Iran.
Global benchmark Brent was trading near $101 a barrel. The possibility of a US resolution with Iran shaved away some of the risk premium that’s supported prices this month as the conflict upended global energy shipping.
After being rocked by weeks of volatility, traders are taking to the sidelines, pushing liquidity lower. Some investors saw the lull in prices as a rare off-ramp after crowding into long positions since the start of the month. Still, the market continues to trade off of each new development in the Middle East situation, with futures bouncing in a wide range.
Brent fell as much as 7 per cent, before paring losses Wednesday. Iranian state media said an unnamed senior security official has listed five conditions for the US and Israel to end the war in the Middle East, including a complete halt to “aggression and assassinations”.
A report that Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant has been struck again also pushed prices off their lows. – Bloomberg
Israel using white phosphorus in south Lebanon, says human rights group
When the M825-series 155mm artillery projectile airbursts, expelling its felt wedges containing white phosphorus, it leaves a distinctive knuckle-shaped plume.
That is how Human Rights Watch (HRW) researchers said they were able to verify that Israel was again using the notorious weapon over south Lebanon, reigniting accusations that it is breaking the laws of war.
The New York-based rights group said it had verified and geolocated eight images showing airburst white phosphorus munitions exploding over residential areas in the southern Lebanese town of Yohmor in the opening days of Israel’s assault during the war on Gaza.
Since then, more videos have emerged purporting to show white phosphorus munitions exploding over south Lebanon, and researchers say that with 800,000 Lebanese people displaced from the region after Israeli forces ordered them to leave, many more uses may have gone undocumented.
In the last week, Israeli soldiers have been facing fierce resistance from Hizbullah fighters in south Lebanon, despite an intense bombing campaign. In recent days, Israeli forces have bombed roads, petrol stations, bridges and medical centres in an effort to cut south Lebanon off from the rest of the country.
White phosphorus is a chemical substance dispersed in artillery shells, bombs and rockets that ignites when exposed to oxygen, burning at up to 800 degrees and emitting large quantities of smoke.
Military forces use it as a smokescreen to mask troop movements, mark targets or illuminate terrain at night, and military lawyers argue such uses are entirely legitimate. But its use over civilian areas is controversial – and some claim illegal – because it ignites fires, causes serious burns and emits toxic fumes.
According to a report by the Lebanese non-profit Public Works Studio, white phosphorus was used to burn more than 2,000 hectares of southern Lebanese countryside, “including 873 hectares of dense forest with gum trees and vast areas covered with oak and pine trees”.
White phosphorus can also lie hidden in the soil and spontaneously combust when uncovered by farmers, posing a continuing threat if the people of south Lebanon are able to return to their homes.
Israel continued to pound Hizbullah targets across Lebanon, as well as engaging in ground fighting with the group south of the Litani river. The Israeli army had been slowly advancing northwards despite fierce resistance, with soldiers posting videos in the previously contested towns of Taybeh and Khiam.
Israel also continued to target civilian infrastructure such as bridges and gas stations, as well as killing two medical workers in the city of Nabatieh, south Lebanon on Tuesday. Human rights groups have warned that Israel’s striking of civilian targets, even if some had an affiliation with Hizbullah, could constitute war crimes.
Hizbullah continued to fire rockets and drones into northern Israel throughout the day. A woman was killed in northern Israel by Hizbullah fire on Tuesday night, an attack that injured two others as well. The woman was the first person killed by Hizbullah in Israel since the group launched rockets at Israel on March 2nd, triggering an Israeli military campaign.
So far Israeli strikes have killed 1,094 people and wounded 3,119 in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese health ministry. – The Guardian
‘Outrageous insult’: Taoiseach faces criticism over 2-cent heating oil cut
From our Parliamentary Correspondent Marie O’Halloran: The Taoiseach has warned “this is March and we have another winter to come” and need to “keep our resources in reserve” as he faced sharp criticism over the 2-cent cut per litre in home heating oil.
Micheál Martin stressed “we do not quite know what is around the corner and what measures might be required from Government in response to a potential further deterioration in the future.”
He was responding to Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín who hit out at the Government’s “outrageous insult” to householders in its response to the surge in home heating oil prices.
He said in the Dáil the price had risen from €950 per 1,000 litres last month to €1,750. And “in the jaws of an energy crisis” with oil at record levels, the Government had dropped the price of a litre by 2 cent.
“A fill has gone from €1,750 to €1,730. It is an atrocious insult to hard working families in this country.”
Echoing the comments of Sinn Féin he said with the carbon tax increase in a few weeks, the price will rise again by 2 cent.
He said the war in Iran had accelerated hardship on families but “the Government was taking 65 per cent in tax on a litre of petrol and diesel before the war”.
“The painful reality is the Government is tax gouging families,” he said, calling on the Government cut carbon tax on home heating oil.
The Taoiseach said Tóibín had ignored the extension of the fuel allowance for four weeks which would help about 470,000 people.
And he said “the price of home heating oil has increased very significantly because of the war, not because of what the Government did”.
He said the crisis “still has not reached the levels that we reached at the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine when we also had an oil price and energy crisis”.
Martin stressed that “this is March and we have another winter to come. We do not quite know what is around the corner and what measures might be required from Government in response to potentially a further deterioration in this future.”
He said they did not know what would happen in relation to the ending of the war and they had a budget to prepare for. The State has to “keep our resources in reserve”.
The €250 million package “is probably the largest package across Europe”, he said. “The fuel allowance is a good, targeted measure” and the general reduction in petrol and diesel “will definitely help families across the length and breadth of the country.
“We also have the reduction in the Nora [National Oil Reserves Agency] levy.” He said the Aontú leader “can’t just isolate one from the other. They will all help to some degree.”
‘World is staring down the barrel of a wider war’, says UN chief
United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres on Wednesday named veteran French diplomat Jean Arnault to be his personal envoy on the conflict in the Middle East, saying it was “out of control” and the “world is staring down the barrel of a wider war”.
Guterres told reporters he had been in close contact with many in the region and around the world and that a number of initiatives for dialogue and peace were under way.
He said these must succeed and warned that prolonged closure of the Strait or Hormuz was choking movement of oil, gas, and fertiliser at a critical moment in the global planting season.
“It is time to stop climbing the escalation ladder – and start climbing the diplomatic ladder,” he said at the UN headquarters in New York.
“My message to the United States and Israel is that it is high time to end the war – as human suffering deepens, civilian casualties mount, and the global economic impact is increasingly devastating,” Guterres said.
“My message to Iran is to stop attacking their neighbours,” he added.
Guterres said Hizbullah must stop launching attacks into Israel and Israel must stop its military operations and strikes in Lebanon, which were hitting civilians the hardest.
“The Gaza model must not be replicated in Lebanon,” he said.
Disrupted fertiliser shipments and soaring energy prices from the war in Iran have threatening to unleash a fresh food-price surge across vulnerable nations, risking a years-long setback just as many were recovering from successive global shocks, UN and other experts warn.
The UN says Arnault has more than 30 years of experience in international diplomacy focusing on peace settlements and mediation, with a background in United Nations missions in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America.
His most recent assignment was in 2021 as Guterres’ personal envoy on Afghanistan and regional issues. – Reuters
Iran rejects US proposals, says State TV
Iranian’s state English-language station Press TV has indicated that Iran will reject the US peace proposals.
The plan has been delivered to the Iranians through Pakistan intermediaries.
According to Press TV, an unnamed official, instead, named five Iranian proposals for a cessation of hostilities:
- These would be a complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the US and Israel
- The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic
- Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations
- The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region
- International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran’s sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz
Significantly, there is no mention in the Iranian counterproposals of the country’s nuclear programme.
Iran looks set to reject peace proposals
Iran’s initial response to the US proposal to end the war has not been “positive”, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday, adding that Tehran is still reviewing it.
The official said that Tehran’s initial response has been delivered to Pakistan to be conveyed to Washington.
Meanwhile, the Iranian mission to the UN has reiterated that “non-hostile vessels, including those belonging to or associated with other States, may – provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security regulations – benefit from safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in co-ordination with the competent Iranian authorities.”
At least 4,500 killed in war to date
A BBC report has calculated that 4,500 people have died to date in the war in the Middle East.
Iran is the worst effected with the US-based rights group HRANA estimating 3,291 deaths – including 1,455 civilians.
In Lebanon, 1,072 people have been killed, according to the Lebanese health ministry.
Eighty-one people have been killed in Iraq, 18 in Israel and the US has lost 13 service members including six in a refuelling aircraft crash over Iraq and seven in a helicopter crash in Qatar.
Nine people died in the United Arab Emirates, six have died in Kuwait, four in Syria, four in the West Bank, two in Bahrain, two in Oman and two in Saudi Arabia.
Taoiseach criticises Sinn Féin over Dáil vote
The Taoiseach accused Sinn Féin of doing “the wrong thing” in voting against the package of supports to deal with the energy crisis after Mary Lou McDonald claimed Government decisions meant people “were on their own”.
Micheál Martin said in the Dáil “the bottom line” is Sinn Féin voted against a 20-cent reduction in diesel, 15 cent cut in petrol and a 3 cent cut in green diesel
“And if you had won last night, there’d be no reductions at all today,” he said.
After a debate on Tuesday night about the Government’s €250 million package, a Sinn Féin amendment to apply the maximum excise cut possible on diesel and petrol, and its removal entirely from home heating oil was voted down by 88 to 69 votes.
The Dáil subsequently voted for the Government’s package by 118 votes to 39, which allowed the cuts to come into effect from midnight. Sinn Féin, Independent TD Carol Nolan and 100 per cent Redress Party TD Charles Ward opposed the supports.
The Sinn Féin leader insisted “your half-baked measures aren’t enough”. She said “we will not support measures that leave 750,000 households high and dry”.
She said many of these families don’t receive the fuel allowance and a 2 cent reduction per litre was worth a “lousy” €20 for a fill of oil “that has skyrocketed to around €1,700.”. And that would be “taken back when you increase carbon taxes in a couple of weeks”.
But the Taoiseach rounded on her and claimed Sinn Féin was “so hypocritical” about the carbon tax. When it suited the party “you suddenly wheel out your supposed opposition to the carbon tax”.
But when the party produced its alternative budget “you’ll include carbon tax revenue. You’re so hypocritical about it, and it’s the damage that you would do, because the carbon tax is essential in terms of guaranteed ringfence funding for retrofitting of homes”.
Analysis: Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal
Iran said it rejected a US ceasefire proposal and maintained attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states, delivering a blow to Washington’s efforts to end a war that’s wreaked havoc across the Middle East and global markets.
A move by US president Donald Trump to start indirect talks is illogical and not viable at this stage of the conflict, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported on Wednesday, citing informed sources it didn’t identify.
Iran is focused on achieving its objectives and only if those are met will an end to the war – not a ceasefire – be possible, Fars added.
The US has compiled a 15-point peace proposal, which Pakistan delivered to the Islamic Republic, according to people familiar with the matter, highlighting urgency within Trump’s administration to resolve a conflict it started alongside Israel almost a month ago.
Brent crude prices rose to near $100 a barrel after the Fars report, as hopes faded of a quick resolution to the conflict. Iran has effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, triggering a global supply shock. That’s sparked fears of an inflation crisis and worldwide food shortages.
Iran maintained its missile and drone strikes on Wednesday, and shows little sign of backing down in the face of a relentless Israeli and US bombardment. Iranian media said the country fired more missiles at Israel, while Saudi Arabia intercepted a drone in the east of the country. A strike targeting Kuwait set ablaze a fuel tank at its main airport.
The US proposal covers a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program – including a resumption of monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency – limits on missiles and access for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Associated Press reported. Iran would get relief from stringent economic sanctions.
Trump has publicly signalled any peace agreement would have to include a prohibition on Iran ever obtaining a nuclear weapon or enriching radioactive material for civilian purposes. He’s repeatedly said this week that Iran wants to “make a deal.”
The US leader has said he hopes to reach an agreement by Friday.
That may be difficult given the wide gaps that remain between the sides, even if talks get officially under way. It’s unclear who the US would negotiate with, given a lack of clarity about Iran’s power structure following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the conflict. Several other leading Government and military officials have also been killed.
On Monday, Axios identified Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s speaker of parliament, as the likely frontman for talks, though he denied negotiations have taken place.
“We are closely monitoring all US movements in the region, especially troop deployments,” Ghalibaf posted on X on Wednesday. “Do not test our resolve to defend our land.”
There’s also little clarity over whether Iran will immediately allow commercial ships safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as how Israel would respond to any deal.
The New York Times first reported on the existence of the 15-point document. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment late Tuesday night.
It is unclear if Israel, which triggered the war alongside the US with strikes on Iran on February 28th, has signed off on Trump’s overtures. Israeli officials have said they’ll continue striking Iran for now. – Bloomberg
Merz welcomes peace move
German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Wednesday Germany was making every effort to persuade the United States and Israel to find an end to the war with Iran.
Answering questions in parliament, he said Germany would be ready to join international efforts to stabilise the region after hostilities end but added that any operation would require a mandate from the United Nations. – Reuters
Trump’s actions in Iran shows democracy is in grave peril
Democracy is in grave peril, worldwide. This is the message of two authoritative recent reports – one, from Sweden’s V-Dem, subtitled Unraveling The Democratic Era? and the other, from Freedom House in the US, subtitled The Growing Shadow of Autocracy.
These make two fundamental points. The first is that what Stanford’s Larry Diamond has labelled a “democratic recession”, which began two decades ago, is beginning to look dangerously like a democratic depression.
The other is that, in 2025, the Trump administration launched what turned out to be the swiftest decline in the health of any significant democracy in recent times.
Here’s Martin Wolff’s assessment.
Germany welcomes Trump peace moves
German foreign minister Johann Wadephul on Wednesday welcomed US president Donald Trump’s pursuit of negotiations to end the war with Iran and said he hoped the talks would be given a chance to succeed.
“It is commendable that the US president has postponed his ultimatum to the Iranian regime for a few days and is now seeking negotiations,” Wadephul said alongside his Tunisian counterpart Mohamed Ali Nafti in Berlin.
“Iran’s regime would be well-advised to respond to this now. So, if there is a window of opportunity for diplomacy, we should definitely give talks a chance.” – Reuters
Tánaiste says State will run a smaller surplus because of Iran war
Tánaiste Simon Harris has said that that the Government “may have to intervene further” later in the year if the crisis in the Gulf continues.
A day after the Government announced a €250 million package of measures to mitigate increases in the cost of fuel, Harris told journalists in Wicklow this morning that a further package of measures could be necessary later this year.
He said that the Government would “run a smaller surplus this year” as a result of the intervention, though there is also a €1 billion contingency fund for this year as part of the current budget.
“Thanks God we have a surplus,” Harris said, contrasting Ireland’s position with that of other EU countries whose governments were scrambling to find resources to bring down the price of fuel for consumers. He suggested that there may be action taken at a European level to help governments if the war in the Gulf continues.
Harris also indicated that he intends to have tax cuts as part of next year’s budget. “I still intend to deliver a budget in October that will seek to enable people to keep in more of their own money as well,” he said, though he added that it was a little early for budget speculation.
Harris also said that fuel retailers need to bring down prices quickly to reflect the Government’s moves yesterday.
“My message on this is really simple. People didn’t dilly dally in terms of putting the prices up ... So prices go up. Therefore, the same logic must apply now in terms of the coming down,” he said.
“Look, I do accept that for some small number of petrol stations where it can take a couple of days for delivery, there may be some timeline. But I also heard the industry saying that for the vast majority they expected that benefit to be passed on within hours. So we’re within those hours now. And I expect that to happen. Should it not happen, by the way – I mean, there are levers at our disposal, and indeed, we’re open to considering further levers as well. So there has to be a sense of fairness.”
Asked what those levers were, he said: “Well, look, I want to talk to Government colleagues about this. I’ve already spoken to Peter Burke in relation to this too. We’re planning on increasing the pairs for the CCPC already. The CCPC does have significant powers. It has administered fines in the past.”
Harris was speaking at the launch of a scheme of social and affordable housing by Co-operative Housing Ireland in Newtownmountkennedy, Co Wicklow, with Minister for Housing James Browne.
Both men used the opportunity to urge local authorities to zone more land for housing.
“We need everybody to recognise it’s an emergency,” Harris said. “It’s not just an emergency for the person needing a house. It’s also a societal emergency.
“We’ve literally put our money where our mouth is in terms of the tax system, in terms of capital spend, in terms of infrastructure and investment. It’s really now important that local authorities conclude their work in terms of ramping up the provision of zoned land.
“And here in my own home county, I wanted to make that point. I want to make that point right across the country now. We need a real sense of urgency in terms of the zoning of that extra land. That’s a key part of making sure we can deliver the 300,000 additional homes.”
Browne said that we what was needed was “a cultural change” in many local authorities.
“They have to move from a sense of, you know, ‘is there a reason we should say yes’ to ‘why should we say no?’ People need homes and that’s what these homes here are about.”
ESRI expects Iran conflict to push inflation to 3.2% this year
Rising energy costs linked to the Iran crisis will push inflation to 3.2 per cent this year, up from a previous estimate of 2.1 per cent, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
Even if the conflict ends soon, it is likely to have a lasting impact on prices here, the think tank warns in its latest quarterly bulletin.
A more prolonged conflict in the Middle East with an extended spike in energy prices would lead to “price rises across a wide range of goods and services” and a dampening of economic activity, it said.
“Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would put considerable upward pressure on oil and gas prices, and raise uncertainty,” the ESRI said.
Israel continues to bomb Iran despite Trump peace feelers
While US president Donald Trump talks of peace, his partner in the Middle East, Israel, continues to wage war.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit two key naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran.
Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets targeted facilities used by the Iranian regime to develop and manufacture long-range naval cruise missiles capable of destroying targets at sea and on land.
On Tuesday the IAF conducted a “broad wave of strikes” targeting the Iranian regime’s main explosives production facility in the central city of Isfahan.
The site was used to “develop and manufacture explosives for a variety of weapons,” according to the IDF, which noted that it was previously targeted during “Operation Rising Lion” in June 2025, but that the military “identified activity by the regime to restore it.”
Trump 15-point plan is a rehash of previous proposals
The 15-point US peace plan for ending the war on Iran touted by president Donald Trump is an outdated version of a proposal put forward last May which was torpedoed by Israel’s 12-day war on Iran, writes Middle East analyst Michael Hansen.
On the nuclear front, the plan demanded that Iran halt domestic uranium enrichment, hand over enriched material to Russia or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and shutter main nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan.
After the plan was tabled and rejected by Iran, the US and Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear sites in June, and disappeared the 440-kilogram stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent (close to the 90 per cent used for weapons).
This effectively cancelled Iran’s nuclear programme. This month the IAEA reported Iranian activity and US-Israeli strikes at Iranian nuclear sites, particularly at Natanz and Isfahan, and voiced concern over limited access for inspectors.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has warned against targeting nuclear facilities as dangerous radiation could be released.
On the politico-military front, Iran would cease support for Palestinian Hamas, Lebanese Hizbullah, Iraqi Shia militias, and Yemeni Houthis, and limit its ballistic missile programme to strictly defensive purposes.
In return, Washington would lift nuclear-related sanctions on Tehran and support the establishment of a civilian nuclear programme.
These demands have been overridden by developments. Israel has largely eliminated Hamas as a threat in Gaza and curbed Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Iraqi Shia militias have been corralled by Baghdad, and the Houthis have chosen to avoid US-Israeli strikes by ceasing attacks in the Red Sea on US and Israeli flagged shipping.
Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones has been bombed, reducing stocks and compelling Iran to ration the use of these weapons in the ongoing war.
Nevertheless, Iranian drones and missiles have struck Israel and neighbouring Gulf counties and flown 4,000km to reach British bases on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. There is concern that Iran’s missiles might also target Paris (4,000km) and London (6,000km).
New provisions have been added to outdated plan demands. On uranium enrichment, a regional consortium would be established linking Iran, the US, the Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
The consortium would have an external manager, and enrichment would take place in the region but outside Iran.
Enrichment would be capped at 3.67 per cent purity for nuclear power plants and distributed to plants in consortium members. This arrangement would be limited as Iran and the Emirates are the only countries other than Israel to have nuclear power plants.
On freedom of navigation through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states seek non-interference guarantees from Iran and, ideally, an agreement to exclude Hormuz and other energy sites from future regional disputes.
In a temporary, pragmatic US reversal of policy due to energy shortages and price spikes caused by the war, the US has lifted sanctions on Iranian oil loaded on ships for delivery.
Trump’s ‘aimless mendacity’ is hurting America’s reputation
Nobody is telling the truth. Why did the war on Iran start? Was it because Israel had decided to launch a go-it-alone air war, as Marco Rubio said?
Was it because Pete Hegseth convinced Donald Trump to go to war? Was it because Binyamin Netanyahu persuaded the US president that an American-Israeli assault was risk-free and would topple the regime of the Ayatollahs?
The only truth is that most of the parties to the conflict are lying, writes Michael McDowell in his weekly column.
Oil prices fall and stocks rise despite mixed messaging on potential peace deal
European stock indexes rose and oil prices were down on the day on Wednesday, after markets got a boost from reports that the US is seeking a month-long ceasefire with Iran, even though Iran rejected the idea of negotiations.
US president Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the US was making progress in negotiating an end to the war, raising hopes that oil could start being exported from the Gulf again. Traders were cheered by reports of the ceasefire proposal and that the US had sent Iran a 15-point plan for discussion.
Iran denied that direct talks had taken place and an Iranian military spokesman said the United States is negotiating with itself, according to state media.
Still, markets took a positive turn, making modest gains during Asian trading.
European stock indexes rose, with the STOXX 600 up 1.4 per cent on the day at 10.36pm – a rebound which did little to counter its overall decline so far in March, leaving it down 7.3 per cent on the month. London’s FTSE 100 was up 1.1 per cent on the day.
“The mood is on the positive side,” said Amelie Derambure, senior multi-asset manager at Amundi. “[The] market is trading now the idea that peace talks or a ceasefire could be on the way.” – Reuters
Minister warns against ‘catastrophising’ over rising fuel prices
Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien has warned against “catastrophising” about the situation in the Middle East and its impact on the Irish economy.
Speaking on Newstalk’s Claire O’Brien Show, he said: “We have to watch this and we will watch it closely. We brought forward a considered approach to this, one that is sustainable too, and one that is affordable, because we’ve got to protect the overall exchequer.
“We’ve also got to look at our economy. We have people like hauliers, who are a really important part of our supply chain. So not only have we done the reductions, we’ve also increased the diesel rebate scheme to protect that sector.”
The situation was an international crisis, he said, a “very deep and severe crisis”.
The had to take action to protect jobs and the economy. “We’ve got to protect livelihoods. We’ve got to look after those who are vulnerable as well and at risk of fuel poverty,” he said.
The Minister said he did not want to “catastrophise” the situation, people knew it was serious. One of the positive things about the situation in Ireland was that 40 per cent of electricity comes from renewables.
“We’ve doubled wind capacity over the last 10 years. Last year we reached 8 eight gigawatts of renewable energy, actually just last week. That is a massive milestone. We also have an expansion of EVs. We’ve over 200,000 EVs on the road, 212,000 actually as of now.
“We have to make sure the measures we bring forward are targeted, are sustainable and are affordable and that we have a reserve that we can respond again. So these measures are temporary. We all hope the situation de-escalates and we get back to normality.”
Ryanair is unlikely to hedge its fuel costs before the end of June, as it waits for more clarity on prices amid the war in Iran.
“I don’t think we’ll do any hedging for the next three months,” Ryanair group chief executive Michael O’Leary said. “We would always vary a little bit if we thought there’s a short-term [jump] – clearly nobody’s doing any hedging now with these kind of rates.”
You can read more here.
ECB’s commitment to 2% inflation remains ‘unconditional’, says Lagarde
The European Central Bank will act decisively and swiftly if the current surge in energy costs risks a broader bout of inflation, though for now it’s still assessing the shock caused by the Iran war, according to European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde.
While the situation is different from 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent consumer-price growth into double digits, there are “reasons for vigilance,” Lagarde said Wednesday in a speech.
“We will not act before we have sufficient information on the size and persistence of the shock and its propagation,” she told the ECB Watchers Conference in Frankfurt. “But we will not be paralysed by hesitation: our commitment to delivering 2 per cent inflation over the medium term is unconditional.”
Soaring energy costs brought on by the conflict in the Middle East are stoking fears of another inflation spike like the one four years ago. Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel and others have signalled borrowing costs may need to be lifted as soon as April if the price outlook sours further.
“We are prepared, if appropriate, to make changes to our policy at any meeting,” Lagarde said.
Speaking directly after Lagarde, chief economist Philip Lane reiterated the ECB’s determination to be agile in responding to reactions by businesses and consumers to the Iran war.
“We mean it when we say we’re data-dependent,” he said, adding that “lots of data” will be arriving in the coming weeks and months. “April, June – ongoing,” he said.
Oil falls and stock rise on prospects of peace
The price of oil has dipped and Asian stock markets moved higher after reports that Donald Trump has sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran, amid hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
Oil prices had fallen by 4 per cent in the early hours of Wednesday, with Brent crude futures sinking below $100 a barrel and even moving as low as $97.57 as trading was influenced by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply.
Stock markets in Asia also moved higher in morning trading. Japan’s Nikkei rose by 2.9 per cent, while the S&P BSE Sensex in India was almost 2 per cent higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was just under 1 per cent up.
European markets also rose in early trading. The FTSE 100 in London was up by almost 1 per cent, while Germany’s Dax was trading 1.8 per cent higher and France’s Cac 40 climbed by 1.5 per cent
However, oil prices later started to climb again amid mixed signals about the status of negotiations between the US and Iran, after Tehran denied that any talks had taken place since the start of the bombing campaign.
Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, located at its southern border, has all but halted global shipments of oil and gas through the key shipping channel, sparking what the International Energy Agency has called the largest ever disruption to oil supply.
Two men arrested over London ambulance attack
Two men have been arrested in connection with the Golders Green ambulance arson attack in London.
The men – aged 47 and 45 – were arrested this morning at addresses in northwest London and central London respectively.
They were arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life and both men have been taken to a London police station, where they remain in police custody.
CCTV footage shows a group of three men burning four ambulances belonging to the Jewish charity Hatzola at 1.35am on Monday morning.
The Metropolitan Police in London is treating the incident as an anti-Semitic attack and it is being investigated by counter-terrorism police.
Baltic States suspect stray Ukraine drones entered their territory
The authorities in Estonia and Latvia believe drones that entered their airspace from Russia were sent from Ukraine.
Several drones entered Estonian and Latvian airspace from Russia on Wednesday morning.
A drone that entered from Russia hit the smokestack of the Auvere power plant in Estonia.
Latvia also reported that a drone entered its airspace, crashed and may have exploded near the border with Russia.
Latvian prime minister Evika Silina said in a post on X that according to preliminary information the drone may have been Ukrainian.
The Estonian Government will convene an emergency session on Wednesday morning.
The incidents occurred amid a Ukrainian attack early on Wednesday on Russia’s Ust-Luga port which is very close to the border with Estonia.
The incursions follow a separate crash of a drone in Lithuania on Monday, which the authorities in Vilnius identified as coming from Ukraine, raising questions over air defence capabilities of the Baltic States despite years of investments in their security. – Bloomberg
Taiwan fears China as the world fixates on Iran conflict
Taiwan fears China will exploit the distraction of the United States by its war in the Middle East, with state media citing examples from the conflict to cast doubt on the efficiency of US weapons the island would use to repel any invasion.
One of the world’s biggest potential flashpoints, democratically governed Taiwan faces growing military pressure from China, which views the island as its own territory, around which Beijing held its latest war games in December.
Taiwan officials say Beijing’s resumption, since March 14th and 15th, of large-scale air force incursions near Taiwan after an unusual drop-off, show China wants to take advantage of US forces redeploying from east Asia to bolster the war effort.
“This is a moment for China to exercise influence,” said a senior Taiwan security official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
“What China is trying to create is a sense that when the US shifts forces away and Indo-Pacific strength is redirected to the Middle East, tension and instability should be manufactured.”
IDF continues to strike at Iran despite US talks of peace
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it has struck two key sites used to develop long-range naval cruise missiles in the Iranian capital Tehran.
The IDF said in a post on Telegram that the “significant strikes” had caused extensive damage to the sites in recent days and that the missiles had been capable of “rapidly destroying targets at sea and on land”.
It “represent another step in deepening the damage done to the regime’s military production infrastructure”, the IDF added.
The Philippines declare national emergency
The Philippines has become the first country in the world to formally declare a national energy emergency as the conflict in the Middle East threatens fuel supplies and the country’s economy.
There is an “imminent danger of a critically low energy supply”, Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos jnr said in an executive order.
“Urgent measures are necessary” to ensure the stability of energy supplies, continuity of economic activity and the delivery of essential services, he said.
Marcos, at a televised briefing on Wednesday, said he issued the order as a “precautionary tool” to give his Government more options to address the energy emergency.
He also said he was confident the nation had a steady flow of oil beyond the current stockpile of about 45 days, and that fertiliser supply was also sufficient until the next planting season.
The last time the Philippines declared a state of national emergency was during the Covid pandemic in 2020, when the country implemented one of the world’s strictest lockdowns.
Fears grow over access to fertiliser
Governments are rushing to secure supplies of critical crop nutrients in advance of spring planting, as the Middle East war chokes off the flow of commodities and amplifies fears of a global food crisis.
Fertilisers exemplify the tight link between energy and food prices, underpinning harvests worldwide. The Middle East is a vital supplier, rich in both mineral reserves and the gas needed to produce nutrients for staples like corn, wheat and rice.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, shipments have ground to a halt as Iran, the US and Israel continue to exchange strikes on energy infrastructure.
In turn, prices of urea – the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser – have surged, with phosphate supplies also at risk. Much of global stock is tied to the Gulf, and panic is spreading across big agricultural economies.
Top exporters China and Russia are curbing some crop nutrient sales, while the US is loosening shipping restrictions to facilitate domestic flows. India, the largest urea buyer, is scrambling for supply and weighing a tender.
Greece and France have expanded financial support for farmers, and in Africa, Ghana has rolled out a free fertiliser programme.
“Farmers should not bear the burden of any crisis,” Indian prime minister Narendra Modi said Tuesday in Parliament, where he addressed the Middle East conflict and announced efforts to shore up fertiliser reserves. “The Government stands with them.”
Rising fertiliser prices could push food costs higher, just as inflation in agricultural goods had started to ease after years of shocks – from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine and extreme weather.
At the same time, countries are moving to shield farmers already hit by weak crop prices, high input costs and US president Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Oil prices fall again and then rise
The price of oil has continued its rollercoaster ride as traders try to ascertain whether or not an end is in sight to the war.
Brent crude dipped below $100 a barrel again on Wednesday morning having been close to $110 a barrel the day before.
Brent fell by 7 per cent in early morning trading before settling at 4.5 per cent lower on Wednesday.
Mixed messages from the White House have played havoc with markets around the world.
While US president Donald Trump has suggested the end of the war is in sight, he has also ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy about 2,000 soldiers to the region.
The Iranians show no sign of giving up their chokehold in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel and Iran exchanged air strikes
Israel and Iran exchanged air strikes on Wednesday, as Iran again rejected Donald Trump’s claim the United States was in negotiations to end to the war.
The Israeli Defense Forces said in a Telegram post it had launched a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure across Tehran. The semi-official Iranian SNN News Agency said the strikes hit a residential area in the city, with rescuers searching the rubble.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia said they had repelled fresh drone attacks, without stating where they originated. Drones targeted a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties, Kuwait’s Civil Aviation Authority said.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it had launched a new wave of attacks against locations in Israel including Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona, as well as US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, Iranian state media reported. – Reuters
Iran says US is negotiating with itself
The United States is negotiating with itself, an Iranian military spokesman said according to state media on Wednesday, a day after Donald Trump said Tehran wanted to make a deal to end the war in the Middle East.
“Has the level of your inner struggle reached the stage of you negotiating with yourself?” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for the unified command of Iran’s armed forces, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, taunted the US leadership.
“People like us can never get along with people like you.”
Zolfaqari said US investments and prewar energy prices would not return as long as Washington does not accept that regional stability is guaranteed by Iranian armed forces.
Earlier, Iran told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organisation that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they co-ordinate with Iranian authorities.
The effective closure of the waterway, where 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas normally transits, has created the worst energy supply shock in history, sent fuel prices soaring, and disrupted global aviation. – Reuters
US offers 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran
Welcome to our continuing coverage of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and its wider implications.
The Trump administration has offered a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, according to a person briefed on the contours of the proposal.
Early details of the proposal emerged, even as the US military is preparing to call up at least 1,000 more troops to supplement some 50,000 troops already in the region.
The plan was submitted to Iran by intermediaries from Pakistan, who have offered to host renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran, it’s understood.
The Pentagon is also in the process of deploying a pair of Marine expeditionary units that will add about 5,000 Marines and thousands of sailors to the region.
Israeli officials, who have been advocating for US president Donald Trump to continue the war against Iran, were taken by surprise by the US administration’s submission of a ceasefire plan, the person said.
But with the US taking steps to send additional soldiers and Marines to the Middle East, the move is being framed as Trump manoeuvring to give himself “max flexibility” on what he will do next, the person added. – AP
The US is poised to deploy about 3,000 additional soldiers from its elite 82nd airborne division to the Middle East
