There have been loud calls for the suspension of an “association agreement” governing the close political and economic relationship between the European Union and Israel. But how likely is that and what would it mean?
What is the agreement?
Arguably the most important part of the EU-Israel association agreement is a free trade deal, which has allowed tariff-free trade to flow between the two since 2000.
The EU is Israel’s biggest trading partner, so suspending that agreement and reintroducing tariffs on Israeli imports would be a serious economic blow – and a politically symbolic one.
Who wants the deal suspended?
Civil society groups and pro-Palestine campaigners have been calling for the EU to take action in response to Israel’s two-year war in Gaza, which saw large sections of the Palestinian enclave levelled to rubble and the supply of food and aid cut off for months.
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The governments of Ireland, Spain and Slovenia led an early charge to suspend the agreement as a way to put pressure on Israel to restrain its devastating military campaign. Other countries, such as Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden, followed later.
However, a coalition supportive of Israel that included Germany, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Cyprus opposed joint action at EU level.
What’s the latest?
Taoiseach Micheál Martin is making a fresh pitch for his fellow European leaders to put the association agreement on ice, calling for the matter to be discussed at an EU summit next month.
In a letter to António Costa – the European Council president, who chairs the EU leader summits – Martin said business as usual with Israel was “no longer tenable”.
His intervention follows the detention and taunting of activists on board a protest flotilla sailing for Gaza.
Will the EU-Israel agreement be suspended?
At the moment it does not look likely that the association deal will be suspended.
You would need a big majority of EU countries to back such a move: at least 15 of the 27 member states, representing two-thirds of the bloc’s total population. That threshold has never been met, even during the height of Gaza’s starvation.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed suspending the deal last September in a significant shift that followed sustained pressure to do something about the humanitarian crisis Israel had created inside Gaza.
An EU review also concluded Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank had likely breached guarantees made to uphold human rights.
Opposition from Berlin and Rome meant momentum to suspend the agreement fell short of the required EU majority last year.
There has been renewed debate in Brussels about instead banning trade coming from illegal Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories. For this, the Italian government is again seen as a potentially crucial swing vote.
