Gordon D’Arcy: Clarity must descend at Murrayfield on Farrell’s Ireland project

Sometimes in rugby you play the opposition, not the game. Take Ulster's sparkling backline. Robert Baloucoune has returned from injury with serious power to add to his sprinter's pace. Michael Lowry and James Hume are valuable assets for any team. You know all about John Cooney, Ian Madigan, Stuart McCloskey and Jacob Stockdale by now.

I imagine Dev Toner and Scott Fardy - veterans from some of the toughest test matches of the past 10 years - took a curious glance at their opposing locks in Belfast on Saturday night and overruled any ideas that those teammates not residing in the tight five had about winning aesthetically. For good measure, Michael Bent devoured Eric O'Sullivan in the scrum.

When capable of bullying another pack of forwards you do not hesitate. The leaders ignore what was said all week and get to the business of beating the lard out of those standing in front of them. Martin Johnson deviated from Clive Woodward's playbook on plenty occasions, just like Mick Galway would take Deccie Kidney's plans with a pinch of salt whenever he sensed weakness in opponents.

An ugly yet deeply satisfying spectacle tends to follow.

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Ireland will struggle to produce one of those Peter O'Mahony-led games on Sunday at Murrayfield without Peter O'Mahony. The all singing, all dancing O'Mahony shows, when he ruins the opposing lineout and muddies his face on their scrumhalf's studs has proved enough to put Scottish teams to the sword.

But Ireland can no longer expect to bully Scotland like Leinster keep bullying Ulster. It is the same conundrum Leinster faced once a year against Saracens. Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster know full well that the Toulon front five will need to be out-manoeuvred and frustrated to progress to the Champions Cup quarter-final.

But sometimes in rugby you play the game not the opposition. A case in point will be Murrayfield this Sunday.

Now we just need to figure out what Ireland’s game is.

There is a lot riding on the result for both teams. A few quid too. The head coaches, Gregor Townsend and Andy Farrell, are made of stone if they can avoid day dreaming about sitting in front of the media after 'another bloody defeat to the Irish' or 'being the coach that allows the Scots to pass them out.'

The cliché will not save the defeated coach this weekend. Nor will talk of honesty in performance or a need to refocus on the next game. I think most reasonable observers of Ireland under Farrell can agree that the players are beginning to sing from the same hymn-sheet so perhaps the real problem is the tune.

The Scottish defence will be no different than the Welsh and the French, in that they will be delighted for Ireland to have the ball. The Irish strategy at present is to swing perilously between two stools. Two very different ways of playing the game keep appearing - the old, blemish free approach under Joe Schmidt and the 'heads up' efforts under Mike Catt.

One worked until it didn’t, but the new way does not stack up, even with six tries in Rome.

To be as fair as possible when criticising the coaching of Ireland, I went back over their eight tries in three Six Nations matches this year.

Against Wales, Robbie Henshaw went off script, changing the direction of a static attack, evading two tacklers before offloading for Josh van der Flier, who was stopped short before Tadhg Beirne finished off the score. Henshaw pulled off the same 'duck under' heroics in Paris last year.

Against France, a lost lineout bounced fortuitously for Ronán Kelleher to run over unimpeded.

Nothing from the training ground so far.

Against Italy, the first try was a carry- carry-carry special before Garry Ringrose's outside break from close range. The second was started by Johnny Sexton exploring the short side, resulting in a Ringrose offload behind the gainline that rewarded Hugo Keenan's direct running line. The third, finished by Will Connors thanks to a Jordan Larmour offload, was nicely structured play enhanced by Sexton's ability to manipulate a defence.

The fourth try was a succession of pick and goes, finished by CJ Stander, that any properly structured defence should not concede so easily. The fifth, again by Connors, was down to a jaded Italian pack capitulating under the Irish maul. The sixth, by Keith Earls, came from Craig Casey's desire to play quickly and Sexton's excellent pass.

No tight five members of the British and Irish Lions were selected off the back of these tries. That fact in itself should light a fire under James Ryan and Tadhg Furlong. Warren Gatland has always picked on form, and with only two games remaining, you don't want to be relying on reputation to get make his cut.

The tempo of defeat in Cardiff and victory in Rome were not dictated by Ireland, who are now known as the box kicking rugby nation.

Not much is going to change this weekend or when England come to Dublin six days later.

I have no problem whatsoever with my team keeping the ball, working the phases to the bone, so long as there’s animation in the decoy, accuracy in every ruck and a second playmaker to ensure our creative juices are not soaked up by predictable ball carrying.

If Conor Murray is going to kick the leather off the ball, then there needs to be a very good reason why he is doing so. The wingers must have the aerial dexterity to win it back. Territorial gain needs to translate into points.

Scotland will give Ireland possession but kick long to them and they will spring to life. They love to attack off Finn Russell’s laser passing and Stuart Hogg’s uncanny ability to shred an unformed defensive line.

Like Ulster, the Scots have all sorts of weapons in their backline, from Cameron Redpath to big Duhan van der Merwe. The question that needs answering on Sunday is whether they have a pack strong enough to match what will be thrown at them. Their victory in Twickenham suggests that they do.

Ireland’s current approach is not working. France smothered them and the Welsh defence, while it may have looked like Irish dominance, only cracked when Henshaw abandoned the game plan.

It is also hard to move past Connors second try at Stadio Olimpico, when the option of a 10 man maul was embraced despite Italy being down to 13 players. Rome is not so eternal on a second viewing. Not at all.

‘Ten man maul drives Ireland to fifth place finish in championship’ does not have an inspiring ring to it.

Ireland’s dilemma is very real; use possession to attack with purpose or kick the ball and do what they do best; defend and seek to profit from Scottish mistakes.

If that is who we have become, then fine, let’s make it work against Scotland and England because the general attack shape is not delivering. Connors’ first try is all that can be paraded around the winner’s enclosure as a strategy invented in the coach’s box.

Word gets around. Give Ireland the ball and batten down the hatches. Also, don’t forget to target the life out of Sexton because he remains the creator in chief.

Murrayfield has to be the moment when clarity descends upon Farrell’s Ireland project. The set piece has been revived in recent weeks - all the credit going to Paul O’Connell - so that’s a positive. The technical approach to rucking has also been excellent, which means ball retention is guaranteed, but the next link in the chain is to become unpredictable.

The starting backrow for this championship was supposed to be Caelan Doris, Peter O'Mahony and CJ Stander. Concussion and suspension dramatically altered that plan and while Connors and Beirne have impressed and Stander's commitment continues to be incredible, the gainline remains intact for the most part.

None of this will surprise the Irish players or coaches. They know that predictability is the last stop en route to tier two status. As individuals, plenty of this squad are in touching distance of being top class internationals. As a collective, we have been denied top class international performances, coming one after another, since 2018.

Time stands still on Sunday with a test match to decide which country is better at rugby - Ireland or Scotland?

(Thereafter, time rapidly accelerates into England, a Pro 14 final and two knockout rounds of Champions Cup.)

Ireland played the opponent, not the game, in Rome because they were gifted 18 penalties. Against Scotland they really need to play their own game.

I don’t know what that is. There have been clues when Henshaw and Ringrose take the bull by the horns, but this nagging temptation to play the opponent and bet on making less mistakes remains a part of their DNA.

It is hard to put a finger on what is wrong with Ireland at the moment. It could be the players, it could be the coaches, it could be a combination of both, but there is a problem that keeps being explained away as under-performance.

Unlike England, there is no quick fix. If Maro and friends halve their penalty count they will probably win the next two matches in Paris and Dublin.

If only it was that simple for Farrell.

Never underestimate the power of inertia. It appears to have climbed into the Carton House psyche. Plenty of this group are new to the international scene, but plenty of them have experienced the agony of best laid plans unravelling with slow, painful inevitability. The lessons of 2019 and even 2007 - O'Connell and Simon Easterby were central figures back then - need to be harnessed.

Anger and determination are not enough to avoid the lava pouring down the mountain side. Twenty-plus Stander carries will not bring the team forward. Coaching expertise has to deny Scotland the images they have been dreaming about all this week.

If, come half-time, we have a one score game, yet Ireland possessed 70 per cent of possession, the problems are greater than we presume them to be.

The Scots, never mind the English, will not break under a predictably gutsy Irish approach. To win this match via analysis would signal a significant step in the right direction. Any old win will be celebrated but after two years of Farrell’s coaching, that alone cannot be seen as progress.