Phil Hogan’s downfall proves the old rules no longer apply

The resignation of Phil Hogan represents an extraordinary move by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. It brings to an end a tumultuous seven days when Irish politics – and then the Brussels bubble – was convulsed by the unlikely event of an Oireachtas Golf Society anniversary dinner.

The revelation that Hogan – along with 80 other people – attended the golf dinner in violation of coronavirus restrictions precipitated a welter of sackings and resignations that led inexorably to last night’s resignation. The next act in the coming days will be a decision on the fate of newly appointed Supreme Court judge Séamus Wolfe, and Hogan’s resignation surely makes it more likely that he will never sit on that elevated bench. If so – a report is awaited from former chief justice Susan Denham – it would make the headcount from the episode: several senators, a Cabinet minister, a European commissioner and a judge of the highest court in the land. It’s some toll for a few holes of golf, a few pints and a plate of beef or salmon.

It also tells us something about the febrile and unpredictable political times we live in – when nothing is unimaginable and the old rules and certainties no longer apply. Politicians are under scrutiny like never before; there is no hiding, anywhere, from the constant gaze of social media; and European commissioners are no longer untouchable. The accountability of public figures may not be universal, but when it comes, it can be savage.

It is still a very big step for to seek the resignation of a European commissioner in response to a domestic furore

Hogan’s resignation was made necessary by two things – the extent of the public fury at the revelations, and the former commissioner’s own handling of the scandal. Politicians say they have seldom – if ever – seen such immediate and palpable public anger before. One said it cut through like nothing else he had ever seen. Others made constant comparisons to the financial crash. That event almost destroyed Fianna Fáil entirely and reordered the Irish political landscape, promoting Sinn Féin and other left-wing groups and independents to a substantial place in Irish politics. No wonder the newly forged centrist alliance of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were so spooked. Along with Green leader Eamon Ryan, they made their views clear to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, without ever issuing a demand: Hogan should go.

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Compounding the damage

It is possible Hogan could have saved his job with a more deft and humble reaction once the story broke. As it was, he compounded the damage by an initial apology judged by many – including the Taoiseach and Tánaiste – to be insufficiently full-throated. His account of his attendance and, crucially, his movements around the country beforehand during a period when he was supposed to be quarantining and when Co Kildare was in lockdown, was faltering and incomplete. His spokesman had to issue several corrections and additions in response to media stories about sightings of Hogan. In the end, reporters almost lost count of the number of Hogan’s statements.

The final chance for him to survive was to comply with a request from his boss for a full and complete explanation of his observation – or otherwise – of the lockdown and the restrictions, and to submit himself to a media interview. The interview with RTÉ did not go well; the explanation was demonstrated to be incomplete this morning, when The Irish Times reported additional visits by Hogan to the K-Club restaurant (during his supposed quarantine period) and to Roscommon not mentioned in his statement to von der Leyen. Ominously, the commission’s spokesman said von der Leyen would be considering all the information, not just what Hogan had told her.

So Hogan's departure is a bad day for Ireland in Brussels, and a tragedy for one of the genuine big beasts of Irish politics

For all that, it is still a very big step for to seek the resignation of a European commissioner in response to a domestic furore – and that it what it undoubtedly is, whatever about claims that Hogan undermined the EU effort to tackle the pandemic. The fractious politics of many member states are forever trying to drag commissioners into their rows; commissioners appointed by one government are often mortal enemies of the next one.

Nervous politicians

Von der Leyen may be sure of one thing: there will be more domestic controversies involving commissioners. So despite being widely speculated about for days, Hogan’s removal will cause shock not just in Dublin but across Europe, where it will signify an encroachment of national political accountability on the Brussels stage. Many European politicians and officials will be nervously looking at their own observation of pandemic restrictions.

Hogan’s departure deprives Ireland of a heavyweight in the commission in a crucial portfolio at a vital time; in that respect, the whole country shares the price of his indiscretions. No matter who his successor is, they won’t command the same clout in the commission – even if the trade portfolio is retained by Dublin. And while diplomatic and political sources say Hogan’s influence in Brexit negotiations was not substantial – Michel Barnier is in charge and reports to the president – there’s no doubt that his departure is a blow to Ireland’s influence.

So Hogan’s departure is a bad day for Ireland in Brussels, and a tragedy for one of the genuine big beasts of Irish politics. But it is a good day for the idea that the same rules should apply to political leaders as ordinary people. This is the refrain that was heard again and again in recent days on the airwaves, on social media, everywhere this damaging episode was discussed – one law for them, another for us. His resignation last night shows the rules apply to everyone.