This week’s budget has already been analysed to within an inch of its life on these pages and elsewhere, but one aspect that has received little attention is how it has revived the political fortunes of Jack Chambers, the Minister for Public Expenditure.
Almost terminally damaged by the Jim Gavin omnishambles last year which had Fianna Fáil TDs baying for his head on a spike, Chambers – according to soundings with several knowledgeable figures at various levels of the party – has resuscitated his standing and authority within both Fianna Fáil and the Government as a result of his management of the budget process.
While he has not been restored as a leadership contender (not yet, anyway) his stock is higher this weekend than it has been for a long time. Even some Fianna Fáil TDs who would have liked a more generous budget that they could sell in the constituencies tended to begin their assessment of Chambers with: “In fairness to him ...” One backbencher said there was “huge praise” for him in the parliamentary party.
The appreciation of Chambers does not extend to some of his colleagues in the Cabinet with whom he was – they think – unnecessarily brutal during the weeks of budget negotiations. There are complaints of personal brusqueness and high-handedness in meetings. Veterans wistfully recalled Paschal Donohoe’s bedside manner and made favourable comparisons with Dr Chambers. The walkout after eight minutes by Patrick O’Donovan during a hot-tempered bilateral was well documented, but there were others who felt like doing the same thing. Chambers made no friends – well, no new ones anyway – during the process and he might have lost a few.
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But it is not his job to make friends with ministers looking for money. It is to safeguard the public finances by keeping a lid on public expenditure increases – the spending increases that his colleagues endlessly demand. He had moderate success on that front this week. It is noteworthy precisely because the constituency for caution and restraint is so rare in Irish politics.
Let’s not overstate it, though: as the Fiscal Council has pointed out, the budget continued the trend of spending most of the corporation tax revenues rather than saving them for the less abundant times that are surely ahead at some stage. We may well repent having a politics that needs a €10 billion budget to stand still. It would be better if our entire political culture was not wedded to the McCreevy doctrine of when-we-have-it-by-jaysus-we-spend-it. But it is, and it seems unlikely to change in the immediate future.
So Chambers’ achievement of sticking to the 6 per cent limit deserves to be recognised. Would a 5 per cent increase, or a 4 per cent increase, have been better in the long term, notwithstanding the political problems it might cause? Yes. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t recognise that expenditure growth in recent years was habitually higher than this year, even under St Paschal the Prudent. One Department of Finance mandarin, a veteran of many budgets, was full of admiration: “He has played it extremely well.” Another insider spoke of him “holding the line” on spending over the weekend when there was pressure on all sides (including some from party leaders) to let the 6 per cent limit slide a bit.
The immediate challenge for him now will be to minimise the supplementary estimates for overspending departments at the end of this year and eliminate them next year. That’s a long shot, but he has established a lot of credibility in recent months, and that has built his political capital.
Does this make him a leadership contender for whenever Micheál Martin departs? Ah no. Not at this point anyway. But it probably means that whoever is Fianna Fáil leader when the Taoiseach’s office switches to Fine Gael in November of next year will appoint Chambers as Minister for Finance then. At a very basic level, you need to be able display competence in government. Setting his 6 per cent target in July and achieving it in October has done that.
Despite O’Donovan’s best efforts, Chambers delivered a budget that did not cause political problems. But it all takes place against a slightly peculiar political background. While anaemic poll ratings and public sourness about the cost of living worry Ministers, the Government retains a sense of grip and continues to make the political weather. Opposition budget proposals all involved taxing and spending vastly greater sums and the critiques of the budget this week were all built around complaints that the Government didn’t spend enough in various areas. I am not sure this will convince middle-ground voters – hammered by the cost of living but nervous of fiscal profligacy – that there is a viable alternative government in waiting.
Sinn Féin is strangely becalmed, retreating to the comfortable redoubts of economic populism and united Irelandism. Finishing her budget speech, Mary Lou McDonald struck a slightly peculiar tone, acknowledging that right now a different government “could seem really far away”. She urged people: “Do not give up. Do not lose hope.” It sounded like she was talking to herself.
Labour and the Greens are treading water. Independent Ireland and Aontú are having a bit of a moment in polls, and so are the Social Democrats on the other side of the spectrum. But the Independents seem to regard the Government as a sort of conspiracy against the plain people of Ireland.
The Social Democrats show little sign of being prepared for the hard compromises of power when difficult choices are required. How many TDs would they lose at their first budget?
So this is where we are: the Government is unpopular but getting on with things. A standstill budget costs nearly €10 billion. The Opposition is fractured and directionless. But if politics seems stagnant, don’t be fooled: it’s always moving. A year ago, Chambers was dead. Now he rises. Politics is never static. Stay on your toes, everyone.
