The Minister for Defence, Mr Smith, believes the Taoiseach made a serious mistake in signalling next month's Cabinet reshuffle as far back as last autumn.
Sources close to Mr Smith said yesterday that Mr Ahern would have to "take him out" if he wanted to remove the Minister from the Cabinet, because he had no intention of retiring voluntarily.
They went on to question Mr Ahern's political judgment in choosing a long lead-time before the reshuffle and said the strategy had created instability within Fianna Fáil.
This served to intensify expectation in the party and would inevitably prompt disappointment among TDs who did not receive the promotions they wanted.
Stating that an unexpected reshuffle was always preferable from a tactical perspective, sources close to the Minister said this was the practice of previous Fianna Fáil leaders.
In addition, they said Mr Ahern's strategy had created the climate for intensive media speculation during the summer about the reshuffle. Anything less than a radical reshuffle, which the sources said was unlikely, would attract unfavourable media comment.
While intensive speculation about the reshuffle was damaging for Fianna Fáil in the short-term, the sources said the Minister believed it was still within the power of the Government to reverse the damage.
The sources stressed Mr Smith's loyalty to Mr Ahern and Fianna Fáil and said he was proud of his record in the Department of Defence. They cited among his achievements the sale of six Army barracks to raise €100 million for investment in new equipment and infrastructure, and the tackling of "Army deafness" claims, now expected to cost about €350 million rather than the €1 billion feared earlier.
The sources also pointed out that the Minister had taken a "huge personal risk" in the 2002 general election by urging voters in his Tipperary North constituency to give their first preference to his running mate, Ms Máire Hoctor.
Only days after Mr Smith signalled that his age, 63, should not be a barrier to his reappointment to the Cabinet, the latest indications from his camp suggest that he will strenuously resist any effort to remove him. The Minister's position is particularly vulnerable because of his public defiance last year of the Hanly hospital reform programme, which was to downgrade the accident unit at Nenagh hospital in his constituency.
Mr Smith accepted that he may have gone "over the top" in his criticism, the sources said, but added that he felt vindicated when the Minister for Health, Mr Martin, moved to guarantee the retention of 24-hour cover in smaller hospitals.
Mr Smith is understood to have spoken on two occasions in recent weeks with Mr Ahern, but the reshuffle did not feature in their discussions, which took place at GAA matches.
While Mr Smith was mooted at the time of the mid-2002 reshuffle as a possible successor to the Ceann Comhairle, Dr Rory O'Hanlon, the sources said that no alternative job has been mentioned to the Minister.
The Taoiseach's position going into the reshuffle has been strengthened by the departure of the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, to the European Commission and the retirement of the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh. The Taoiseach hopes to reinvigorate the Cabinet, and move it away from its right-wing image, after damaging losses in June's local and European elections.
Many Fianna Fáil TDs believe he will seek to remove Mr Smith to make room for new blood, although one possibility that has emerged is that the Taoiseach may create a "super junior" post for a Junior Minister who could sit in at Cabinet meetings but would not have a Minister's vote.