Economy the real trump card

The lead established by the Fianna Fáil-PD Coalition over the alternative government of Fine Gael and Labour, with the possible support of the Greens, is hardly a surprise, given the big jump in support for Fianna Fáil shown in the TNS mrbi opinion poll.

The current Coalition's lead of 5 per cent represents a big turnaround since May, when the Fine Gael-led alternative was ahead by 4 per cent.

However, in the first poll of the year conducted for The Irish Times back in January, the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition had a 6 per cent lead.

Why the Government lost support between January and May and regained most of it by the beginning of this week is something all the political parties will be trying to analyse. Support for the alternative coalition is strongest among supporters of the bigger parties.

Over 80 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters back their Coalition with the PDs, while over 80 per cent of Fine Gael and Labour supporters back the alternative.

There is slippage among the supporters of the smaller parties, with just 55 per cent of PDs saying they want the current Coalition to win another term, while Green voters are not as enthusiastic about the alternative government as the supporters of Fine Gael and Labour.

When it comes to the issues that will decide the election, one stands out away above all others in the poll and that is the need to improve public services such as health, transport and education. A massive 56 per cent of people say this is the issue which will be their top priority when it comes to voting next year.

The next highest-ranking issue is the continued success of the economy, but this comes far behind, with just 13 per cent rating it as their priority. It is followed by crime on 12 per cent, waste of public expenditure on 9 per cent and the need to keep taxes low or reduce them, which is a priority for just 6 per cent.

When the same question was asked back in May, the result was almost identical, with 60 per cent at that stage saying that improved public services were the key issue. The question for the political parties, though, is whether they can believe these answers reflect peoples' true opinions.

In the run-up to the last general election in May 2002, health was rated as the top issue but it did not figure largely in the campaign.

Politicians in all parties suspect that while people say public services are the most important issue, they actually vote on the basis of which government they think is going to leave them better off financially.

This was glaringly obvious in the last general election, when Fine Gael and Labour attempted to campaign on the state of the public services and were swept aside by the two government parties, which focused on their ability to keep the economic boom going.

If the voters are actually to be believed, then the Opposition parties have some reason to hope they can turn the tide by the time of the election. When asked about which of the coalitions would handle a range of issues best, the present Government came out on top on all issues except one, the health service, which in theory is the critical one.

Asked which of the alternatives would be better at improving the health service, 31 per cent opted for the Fine Gael-led coalition, with 27 per cent plumping for the current Government.

On childcare, the alternatives were almost at level pegging, with the Fianna Fáil-led Coalition just one point ahead.

However, on the hard economic issues, such as managing the economy and keeping taxes low, the Fianna Fáil-PD Coalition had a clear lead.

Back in January, the Government also led on these issues, but the margin was not as great as it was this week.

The Fine Gael-Labour alternative have a lot of work to do to convince voters not just that they will not damage the country's economic prospects but that they will do a better job than the incumbents. The issue of waste and value for money, which has been highlighted by the Opposition, appears to have slipped down the agenda over the past six months.

There is one big issue on which Fine Gael and Labour should have been able to capitalise on, but haven't, and that is the Government's poor record on tax.

Despite their reputation for tax-cutting, the Fianna Fáil-PD Coalition has presided since 2002 over a regime that has increased taxes on ordinary workers by a significant amount. The pledge to bring 80 per cent of taxpayers on to the standard rate has been ignored to date.

The Opposition has not made nearly as much of this as it should and in December's budget Brian Cowen will have a last opportunity to rectify the position. He has so much money at his disposal that he can hardly fail to miss this time.

Instead of being harried into giving people back their own money, the Minister will be able to present himself as the peoples' champion.

Unless the Opposition can present a credible and attractive alternative on the economy, they have no chance of winning. Health on its own will not be enough.