A busy Cabinet agenda on Tuesday saw Ministers approve two pieces of legislation that will each cause a political ruckus in the weeks and months ahead.
The Residential Tenancies Bill, which will begin its passage through the Oireachtas next month, will change the laws governing tenancies and rent revisions. The Government insist that it strengthens protections for tenants, restricting rent increases and providing for longer leases. The Opposition says it will lead to rent increases for many tenants. Both, up to a point, are correct.
What is certain is that the Opposition will seek to unite and obstruct this legislation. They will, Sinn Féin’s Eoin Ó Broin has vowed, fight this “tooth and nail”.
“What have you got against renters?” Mary Lou McDonald asked the Taoiseach in the Dáil today.
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“Why do you oppose greater protections for renters?” he retorted.
[ What is the priority legislation coming before the Dáil this term?Opens in new window ]
“Why is the focus of Government constantly on landlords’ profits?” demanded Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns.
The Taoiseach accused her of “empty soundbites”, and a “desperate lack of substance”.
As for the Government, he said, “We’re throwing the kitchen sink at it!”
The very real division on the issue will be sharpened by the Government’s intention to push the legislation through the Oireachtas quickly in the coming weeks, in time for a March 1st commencement. That will inevitably require guillotines, where the Government uses its Dáil majority to truncate debate and pass the legislation, probably without any amendments. Expect fireworks from the Opposition in the chamber when that happens.
Central to the Government’s narrative is that it is taking political pain now for future gain. It knows that the legislation will be contentious and that rents will rise for many tenants in due course. Others will be evicted as their landlords sell the property. But senior figures in the Coalition believe there is no way to make progress on housing without taking some actions that will be unpopular initially.
This is a reasonable approach. It does not follow, however, that just because a policy is unpopular at first that it will work in the longer term. There is also another obvious political problem: the short-term pain is guaranteed, while the long-term gain is uncertain.
The other piece of legislation guaranteed to prompt a scrap is the Defence Amendment Bill, which will abolish the triple lock. This security protocol, which requires a UN mandate, a government decision and a vote of the Dáil before more than 12 Irish soldiers can be deployed overseas, has been a staple of Irish defence and security policy, previously accepted as a guarantor of Irish neutrality.
But the requirement of a UN mandate has, the Government argues, effectively given the members of the security council, including Russia, a veto over Irish peacekeeping missions.
[ Neutrality matters to Irish people – let’s stop deriding itOpens in new window ]
It’s debatable how much real difference the legislation will make. But there are two things that make it significant. The first is that it is a signal to the EU and the world that Ireland is prepared to take account of the new world wrought not just by Vladimir Putin but also by Donald Trump.
With increasing unhappiness in the EU about Ireland’s failure to take responsibility for its own defence, this is a sign, the Government hopes, that Ireland is taking account of how the world has changed.
The second significant thing is that it requires a debate among ourselves about neutrality – for long a sacred cow in Ireland, but about which there is little agreement on what it actually means. It is a debate that is probably overdue. It is also likely to be extremely contentious.
