Democratic voters in Iowa have invigorated their party's presidential campaign by their surprise choice of Senator John Kerry at the caucus meetings on Monday. By putting Mr John Edwards in second place they have presented Mr Howard Dean, who came third, with a major challenge to do well in next week's New Hampshire primary or drop out of the national race he has conspicuously dominated for the last two months.
It is much too early to say how such close competition for the Democratic nomination will affect President Bush, who last night laid out his domestic and foreign policy agenda in the annual State of the Union address. But shrewd observers agree he remains the most likely victor in November.
Mr Dean and candidates who did not stand in Iowa, such as General Wesley Clark and Mr Joseph Lieberman, can take comfort from the historical record of this contest. Mr Bush's father came a poor third there in 1988 and went on to win the presidential election, beating the Democrat candidate, Mr Michael Dukakis, who did as badly there. Nevertheless Iowa gives a real boost to the finances and reputation of those who do well. Anyone who heard Mr Kerry and Mr Edwards talk about their good performances yesterday will have noticed the leap of confidence and rhetoric involved. Voters respond to such stimuli. This will create genuine interest in such an open contest, as it rolls to the south next month and on to the most populous states in March.
Mr Bush is fully engaged in the campaign, as shown by his decision to move last night's address forward one week to spike the Democrats' publicity. His message that the US is still at war with terrorist adversaries resonates with his supporters. So does his optimistic message about the recovering US economy and specific policy measures to tackle social exclusion and poverty.
Democratic voters showed in Iowa that they value the capacity to defeat Mr Bush over and above the radical criticisms of the war in Iraq which have been Mr Dean's distinctive hallmark. Hence their support for Mr Kerry, a Vietnam war veteran who has a solid record as a long-standing senator for Massachusetts, and for the less well-known Mr Edwards, who could compete effectively against Mr Bush in his southern heartlands. The election agenda comes back to issues of healthcare, jobs and the environment which can mobilise voters, especially if the economy does not deliver this year as Mr Bush promises it will do. Mr Kerry's critique of the Bush administration's unilateralism proved as effective as Mr Dean's attack on the Iraq war in this relatively conservative state. Mr Dean will have his work cut out to recover his momentum.
Iowa has therefore ignited the presidential campaign in time-honoured fashion. Democratic voters are being presented with a range of opinions and activism that many say has reinvigorated the nation's politics. But it is Mr Bush's election to lose, a lesson he has certainly learned from 1992, when his father lost out to Mr Bill Clinton.