Noel Whelan: The UK faces an unhealthy election

It is extraordinary how quickly a political system can undermine itself.

The twists in British politics which culminated in British prime minister Theresa May's decision to call a snap election this week began with a decision made by her predecessor David Cameron just four years ago.

In January 2013, Cameron, who was in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats at the time, promised that if the Conservatives won a majority in the House of Commons at the 2015 election, he would hold a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the European Union.

Those who were closest to Cameron, including his then director of communications Craig Oliver, claim he had no choice.

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"Scores of Tory MPs were rebelling on any and every issue connected to Europe, " Oliver says.

“The right-wing press were full-throated in their demands, and Ukip had become a significant force in British politics.”

Had Cameron not promised a referendum then, Oliver suggests, “the Conservative party and consequently the country would have become almost ungovernable”.

Cameron knew full well, however, that the risk with a referendum was that “you could unleash demons of which you know not”.

Indeed, Oliver went on to call his memoir of the Brexit campaign Unleashing Demons.

British voters felt disengaged, not only from Europe but also from economic prosperity and mainstream politics

Cameron, it seems, was confident he could win such a referendum. In any case, there was the possibility that even after the election he would still be dependent on the Liberal Democrats, who would veto such a Brexit vote.

Postcard-size slogans

To the surprise of many, the Conservatives won a majority, albeit a narrow one, at the 2015 election.

When the promised referendum came in June 2016, Cameron was left trying to frighten the British electorate to vote to remain in a European Union which they never loved, warning them of the risks that would arise from leaving.

He and other Remain campaigners had to do that in circumstances where many British voters felt disengaged, not only from Europe but also from economic prosperity, mainstream politics and the mainstream politicians trying to persuade them to stay.

The complex ramifications of leaving the European Union could not compete with postcard-size slogans writ large on bus sides making misleading claims such as that Brexit would enable the British government to spend £350 million more per week on the National Health Service.

Cameron lost the referendum and lost office. May became Conservative leader and prime minister, but only after the leading Brexiteer contenders, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, turned on each other.

Meanwhile, at a time when the Conservatives’ difficulties should have been Labour’s opportunity, the opposition party was engaged in a bitter civil war.

In a ridiculous pander to the supposed virtues of internal party democracy, Labour had devised a new system for electing its party leader which allowed its enemies to cannibalise it.

Those best placed to know who or what about Labour was most electable – the party’s elected MPs – were reduced to bystanders as the membership and registered supporters, including hundreds of thousands who had signed up online only a few weeks or days earlier, were allowed to select Labour’s leader.

To facilitate a broad choice, a handful of foolish Labour MPs had signed Jeremy Corbyn’s nomination papers to make up the numbers – although they wouldn’t vote for him.

Corbyn was elected and a few months later withstood a heave.

He comes across as a decent man but has proved disastrous in debate on the media and at the despatch box. He is unelectable as an alternative prime minister.

The majority of Labour MPs hoped there would be time for another attempt to displace Corbyn before the general election scheduled for 2020. One of the reasons why May’s move on Tuesday was a thing of such strategic beauty was because it left Labour trapped, fighting an election led by Corbyn.

Mind you, “fighting” seems too ambitious a verb to describe what Labour is doing in this election, given the most recent polls.

The overall outcome of this UK election looks like a foregone conclusion

Labour looks likely to be reduced and still deeply divided after the June 8th poll.

In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon and her Scottish Nationalist Party are again likely to win almost all, if not all, of the Scottish seats at Westminster.

Her party will rightly read this as an express mandate for the holding of a second independence referendum.

Meanwhile, Northern Ireland has been cast into another six weeks of what has been almost permanent campaigning after two Assembly elections, a Brexit referendum and now a second Westminster election in the past two years.

The overall outcome of this UK election looks like a foregone conclusion. May will get her mandate as prime minister with a substantially-enhanced majority.

Six weeks is an eternity in politics, especially in these volatile and accelerated times. Anything could happen in theory.

At this remove, however, Britain looks set for an election with no real choice, which makes for unhealthy democracy.