American politics is undergoing a sea change. There was much more at stake in last week’s Democratic primary election in the key swing state of Michigan than just a chance to run in November’s Senate contest.
The narrow victory of Abdul El-Sayed, the latest in the party’s new wave of successful progressives, and the first of them to have won in a presidential battleground state, sent a strong message of disquiet to the Democratic national leadership about their perceived timorous response to Donald Trump. It was a clear signal that the left of the party may be able to stake a claim to the presidential nomination in 2028.
His win was also a major blow to the powerful Israeli lobby which, through the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, put more than ¤28 million into his rival’s campaign.
Defying centrist warnings that he would alienate “moderate” voters, El-Sayed campaigned with Vermont’s senator Bernie Sanders and New York’s representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, on the slogans “Money out of … politics.” “ Money in your … pocket.” “Medicare for … all”, borrowing from the playbook of New York’s Democratic socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani. In the end, he was not just competitive, but victorious.
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Trump has started to brand all Democrats as “communist”, but voters do not seem to mind, or believe him. .
Centrist Democrats are running scared and beginning to spend heavily to defeat the supposed “red menace” in their midst. The left’s ascent is, however, far from certain. El-Sayed carried Michigan with most of the usual progressive coalition but, crucially, failed to win working-class black areas and most white working-class rural parts of Michigan, where a Trump-like populist economic message still resonates.
The narrowness of his base limits the opportunities of the left. It will be tough for progressives to compete in the South, a significant disadvantage in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. But these are still early days.
