With close to nine million votes to his name, Bola Tinubu, the former governor of Lagos and ally of outgoing term-limited president Muhammadu Buhari, has been declared the winner of Nigeria’s closely fought election. The declaration has been marred, however, by complaints from both the main losing candidates’ parties, who have demanded a re-run, and by the resignation of the head of the widely criticised electoral commission. International observers have shared the criticism, focusing mainly on bureaucratic failings of the commission in both the conduct of the election and the count returns.
Tinubu’s mandate, backed by just over a third of voters, signals the continued dominance of the established political elite in Nigeria, notably represented by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party. But it is weak. Tinubu’s main rival, Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People’s Democratic party, secured 7 million votes on his sixth attempt at the presidency. Peter Obi, the reformist candidate of many in Nigeria’s urban and educated middle-class, took 6.1 million votes, winning capital Abuja and 11 states, including Lagos.
The 70-year-old Tinubu, who traded on his record in “cleaning up” Lagos back in 2007 and has long wielded huge unseen influence and operated extensive patronage networks , insisted that it was his turn to become the next president. His age and frailty have raised questions, however, and he has not shaken off doubts about how he acquired his vast wealth. Back in the 1990s the US linked it to narcotics.
He will inherit a vast country facing huge challenges: an economy in tatters, vital oil production stalled, inflation running at almost 22 per cent and one in three of its people unemployed. Over 60 per cent of the population lives in poverty.
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Buhari, a military dictator turned democrat, has ruled for eight years, promising to end the corruption and violence endemic in the countryside – that includes kidnapping, terrorism, militancy in oil-rich areas and clashes between herdsmen and farmers. He has singularly failed.