Australian government heading for winter of discontent

Same-sex marriage and housing are among the thorns in the coalition’s side


Australia's capital Canberra has had its first snow of the year, the city is waking up to sub-zero temperatures and parliament is in its last sitting period before a long winter break.

It’s a break that can’t come soon enough for the Liberal-National coalition government.

Led by prime minister Tony Abbott, the government got a brief poll bounce after its well-received budget was announced a month ago, placing it neck-and-neck with the opposition Labor Party.

But just about the only thing that has gone right for it since then was its tough stance on Johnny Depp's dogs. The Hollywood star, who is making a new Pirates of the Caribbean film in Queensland, was forced to return his dogs by private plane to LA as they had not cleared Australian quarantine.

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The budget bounce has not lasted, with the latest polls showing Labor ahead by between two and six points. Ireland voting so comprehensively for same-sex marriage is responsible for at least some of Labor's lead.

There has been a sneering condescension amongst many on the left in Australia that “even conservative, Catholic Ireland” has voted for same-sex marriage.

Conscience

But those in the political centre, where elections are won and lost, are wondering why the prime minister – a Catholic who opposes same-sex marriage – does not at least allow his MPs to vote with their conscience, rather than have to obey the party whip, on this issue.

Abbott’s current biggest issue, however, is whether or not the Australian navy paid people smugglers US$5,000 (€4,440) each to turn their boat containing 65 asylum seekers back to Indonesian waters. Rather than giving a yes or no answer, Abbott has endlessly repeated his “stop the boats” mantra.

"The great thing about stopping the boats is that it has very much improved our relationship with Indonesia, " Abbott said. Indonesia begs to differ. The country's vice-president Jusuf Kalla has accused Australia of bribery. "Bribing is of course not according with the ethics of international relationships," he said.

Indonesia's foreign minister Retno Marsudi said it was "actually not so hard for Australia to answer the question" and accused it of "deflecting the issue".

Abbott’s response was to say it’s all the fault of “media outlets that are more interested in promoting discord than in celebrating all the constructive things that happen between our two countries”.

Domestically, Australia’s raging housing market has caused some difficulties for the government. With Sydney’s median house price now AU$914,056 (€628,961), Abbott wants people to know he feels their pain.

“I’m someone who has, over the years, felt a bit of mortgage stress,” he said. “Even as a cabinet minister, sometimes it’s hard to pay a Sydney mortgage and I know over the years I’ve earned a lot more than the average person.”

The treasurer (finance minister), Joe Hockey, had some advice for those wanting to buy their first home.

“If you’ve got a good job and it pays good money and you have security in relation to that job, then you can go to the bank and you can borrow money and that’s readily affordable,” said Hockey, who has a multi-million-dollar property portfolio.

Hockey’s helpful words might have been better received had he not previously said fuel excise would not affect the poor because they “don’t have cars or actually drive very far”.

Gaffe-prone

With its poll lead and a gaffe-prone government to oppose, Labor should be full of confidence. But it has a significant problem – its leader

Bill Shorten

. In the latest poll, 28 per cent approve of his performance while 54 per cent disapprove.

Shorten was a strong, natural speaker when he was a union leader and as a minister in the last Labor government from 2007-2013, but has become robotic since he became Labor leader almost two years ago.

Everything he says sounds like it has been focus-grouped to within an inch of its life and been practised in front of a mirror for 20 minutes before he says it. His supposedly off-the-cuff jokes are so utterly unfunny they have been mercilessly lampooned by television satirist Shaun Micallef (Australia's version of Jon Stewart) as "Shorten's zingers". Some deals he signed when leader of the Victoria branch of the Australian Workers' Union are also coming back to haunt him at an inquiry into alleged union corruption.

With an election due within 14 months, and a strong possibility a snap poll could be called by November, Shorten may just be the only person in Australia less likely than Abbott to win it.