Pay review for Defence Forces following effective campaign

Good morning.

The Cabinet meets at Government Buildings this morning (the regular Tuesday meeting having been postponed because the Taoiseach was in Brussels) to discuss a lengthy agenda. Most attention will be focused on the report of the Public Sector Pay Commission on the Defence Forces, which is likely to be published once ministers have agreed to accept it, which they will, at Paschal Donohoe's recommendation.

Some of its findings were reported in The Irish Times a few weeks ago, revealing that a series of improvements to special allowances received by military personnel would be recommended, thus increasing their take home pay while not offering any general pay rise that would violate the terms of the wider public sector pay agreement.

However, it soon became clear to ministers that this would not be sufficient to satisfy the vocal and effective campaign to improve pay and conditions - enjoying lots of sympathetic airtime on Liveline, inter alia -- and since then there has been intensive exchanges between the Department of Public Expenditure and the Department of Defence on the issue, as officials sought ways around the impasse. No government wants to be in a dispute with its own army, which enjoys widespread public support; but this government cannot tear up its public pay settlement without tearing up its budget. The solution? Another review, as Martin Wall reports this morning.

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Yesterday Paschal Donohoe was at the Budgetary Oversight Committee to discuss his summer economic statement of last week. As Eoin Burke-Kennedy reports, he cited estimates of the cost of a no-deal Brexit to the economy - some €6 billion in cash terms. Donohoe also acknowledged that with €2.1 billion of his projected €2.8 billion budget day package already taken up with promised spending increases, his numbers are already looking extremely tight. And that's before you factor in the €600 million of tax cuts that the Taoiseach would like to include - which proposal he was stoutly defending yesterday at the ICTU conference.

Other ministers, needless to say, have their own preferred spending requirements, which have been thrown about in recent months like snuff at a wake.

Choosing between fiscal discipline and the mounting spending demands - all against the looming backdrop of Brexit -- will be one of the themes of daily life at the centre of Government for the coming months. Most of it we won’t see because it will take place behind closed doors. Today will give us a glimpse.

Creed’s beef

Our story today shows the extreme discomfort in Fine Gael at the announcement of the Mercusor trade deal last weekend, and in particular at the potential effects on Ireland's beef industry.

As we report, Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed went a good deal further than the Government position when he said that he would seek to "frustrate", "dismantle" and "thwart" the deal; the official Government position is that it will assess the agreement to see if it is in Ireland's interests, but that it must be seen in the round, where some sectors will gain and others will lose.

The matter was discussed at the Fine Gael parliamentary party last night, where some grumbling was evident. Creed did not contribute to the discussion, say moles, instead the briefing was given in the honeyed tones of enterprise minister Heather Humphreys. Clearest sign of all that this is politically dangerous for Fine Gael? Fianna Fail can hardly contain its glee. Expect more today.

All this discussed, by the way, on the Inside Politics podcast this week

Heil Spode!

A scholarly debate is currently taking place in the UK about which PG Wodehouse character Boris Johnson most resembles. There is a strong lobby for the bumbling Bertie Wooster himself, though some feel that Bertie is a good egg, and Boris most assuredly is not. Others have made the case that he is Gussie Fink-Nottle, others still favour Stilton Cheesewright, though without the moral rectitude, obviously. I'd have thought there's a case for Tuppy Glossop.

There are also strong arguments, made by figures of no less altitudinous eminence than historian Niall Ferguson and MP and grandson of Winston Churchill Nicholas Soames, made in favour of Boris-as-Sir Roderick Spode. These have the added weight of seeming to genuinely annoy some prominent supporters of Boris.

Spode, you will recall, was the leader of a group called the Blackshorts, whom Bertie had the misfortune to encounter at a number of country-house parties. Described as having a stare that could open an oyster at 60 paces, Bertie famously overcomes his fear of Spode and takes him on directly:

“The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you’re someone . . .

‘You hear ‘Heil Spode’ and imagine it’s the Voice of the People.

“But the Voice of the People is saying: ‘Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags. Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?’’

You can find these illuminating exchanges mostly on the Twitter machine, if you really have nothing to do with your time. We’ve done it so you don’t have to, as they say. But let us note that comparing the probable next British prime minister to a PG Wodehouse character does not at this stage seem implausible. The considered view in Dublin is that this does not bode well for Brexit.

Best reads

Miriam reflects on more testy exchanges between the Taoiseach and Micheál Martin - a regular feature of Dail business nowadays - during which the Varadkar says Martin reminds him of "one of those parish priests who preaches from the altar telling us to avoid sin while secretly going behind the altar engaging in any amount of sin himself."

Michael D is in High Germany, and appears to be enjoying himselfThe strange tale of the departing Dubai princessand the Mary Robinson connection

The influx of tech firms is destroying Dublin, says Karlin Lillington

Paddy Smyth on the shafting of Franz Timmermans

Playbook

The Cabinet meets this morning, as advertised above.

Later, the Taoiseach attends the Church-State dialogue at Dublin Castle. Wonder what the assorted men of the cloth will have made of the Taoiseach’s “parish priest” jibe at Micheál Martin yesterday?

Busy day in the Dail, which is ploughing through Government legislation in advance of next week’s summer recess. Richard Bruton is on oral PQs, followed by leaders’ questions and the weekly votes. Pick of the committees is the appearance of Dr Gabriel Scally at the health committee to discuss his second report into the Cervical Check screening programme.

Other committee details, as well as the rest of the Oireachtas business, are here.

Elsewhere the ICTU conference continues, while Michael D goes to Leipzig as part of his state visit to Germany.

And that’s it for now. We’ll keep you updated throughout the day on irishtimes.com. It is of course, July 4th, Independence Day in the United States, commemorating the day in 1776 when the Continental Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence, asserting that the thirteen colonies were no longer subject to the King of England. Kind of like Brexit. Though not really. Have an independent, and thoroughly fruity, day.