First Dáil meeting was predictable – but what happens next?

It can’t be an anti-climax if nobody expected matters to reach a conclusion.

The events in Leinster House yesterday played out more or less exactly as everyone said they would. The Dáil met. It failed to elect a new Taoiseach. It adjourned.

Now comes the hard bit.

Yesterday brought to an end the first phase of the post-election period. That phase was given over to the process of comprehending the extent to which Ireland’s political landscape has changed, and the clarification of what this means for government formation.

And in that clarity we can see that Ireland is either poised for an unprecedented agreement between the two old enemies of Irish politics, or there will be another general election.

The days when the two big civil war parties were all that mattered in Irish politics are gone forever. Yet despite the fracturing of party politics and the proliferation of new groups and Independents, the game of government formation is again dominated by the big two. Not as big as they were, to be sure, but still at the decisive centre of things.

So what will they do? What are the prospects for a government in the coming weeks? In other words, what the hell happens now?

There are four possibilities. The first two will be pursued with public vigour and apparent seriousness in the coming weeks: they are minority administrations led by either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.

Both the Taoiseach Enda Kenny and the Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin have indicated in recent days that they will try to put together such administrations.

But the numbers are stacked against them; after the election of Seán Ó Fearghaíl as Ceann Comhairle, Micheal Martin has 43 TDs to call on; Enda Kenny has 50. That's a long, long way from the 79 needed to make a bare Dáil majority.

Martin and Kenny know this; they can count. Like all politicians, they have been counting heads all their lives. So if the contacts with the Independents and small parties are unlikely to lead to the formation of a government, then what are they about?

Optics, largely. They are about being seen to be doing something.

The smaller parties and Independents will go on loving the attention, but it is all just the second phase of the post-election period: filling time, and newspaper column inches, and broadcast minutes while the two big parties tread warily in preparation for phase three – when they actually have to talk to one another.

When they do begin to talk, it is likely to become apparent quickly that neither side is willing to accept the responsibility of government on the other’s terms.

Fine Gael Ministers have made it abundantly clear that they will not tolerate a deal that leaves Kenny in power simply to have Fianna Fáil pull the plug on Fine Gael at the most politically opportune time.

There is respect and affection for Kenny in his own party; and there is a realisation that his career is nearing its end. There is also an acute awareness that there may come a point at which Kenny’s interests and those of his party diverge.

Preferred outcome

Senior Fine Gael figures know that Fianna Fáil’s preferred outcome is a minority government led by Kenny, and they are determined not to give their rivals what they want.

And if Fine Gael does not trust Fianna Fáil to support it responsibly in a minority government, that judgment is returned in spades. Why would Fianna Fáil allow Fine Gael the space to reorganise, rejuvenate itself and change its leader?

The belief in Fianna Fáil is: why let them off the hook?

Which brings us to the final two options, whose resolution will comprise the third and final phase of the post-election period. It will culminate in either the formation of a grand coalition between the two parties, or in another general election.

There are misgivings, it is true, in Fine Gael about the prospect of a grand coalition. But the Taoiseach has indicated his preference for such a deal, and some of his most important ministers agree.

But there is outright opposition at all levels of Fianna Fáil to the idea, up to and including the party leader. In some cases, that opposition is utterly vehement. In recent days, a few local branches have met and passed motions in opposition to any such coalition.

But that is the current context. And the passage of time can change the context. A month, two months without a government – what happens then?

One thing is certain: there will be huge pressure on Fianna Fáil to form a government with Fine Gael. Newspaper editorials, commentators, politicians in every other party will amplify the clamour.

For its part, it is Fine Gael’s strategy to increase, wherever it can, the pressure on Fianna Fáil, and to stick Martin with the blame if another general election ensues.

But perhaps the most salient mood in Fianna Fáil right now is a determination not to be bullied into doing something which it judges to be against its own interests. If that means being accused of putting the party before the country by its opponents and by the media, then so be it. Fianna Fáil isn’t in much of a mood to pay attention to the judgments of either group.

“How many demonstrations in Kildare St will there be calling for a grand coalition?” asks a senior party source. “How many people will be ringing up TDs in their constituency offices and saying, ‘I’ll never vote for you again unless you do a deal with Fine Gael?’ That’s pressure. The media have been getting Fianna Fáil wrong for five years. Who cares what they say?”

The mood in Fianna Fáil may change, of course. We don’t know what the context will be in a month’s time. All we can do is describe the situation now. And right now, there is no prospect of a deal.

Which leads towards the conclusion that unless something significant changes, we are heading for another election – the likely result of an inconclusive election.