Apple ruling debate: One of the strangest Dáil motions

Possibly my favourite line from a Tom Waits song comes from "On the Nickel", a song from his speakeasy period in the mid-1970s.

It goes: “I know a place where a royal flush will never beat a pair.”

Until know, I didn't know the location of the place. Now I know. It is Leinster House.

We are going to witness one of the strangest motions ever in Leinster House today.

Dáil deputies are being recalled almost three weeks early (the Dáil was not due back until September 27th) to debate a motion that if won will mean we lose, and if lost will mean we win.

Of course, it is the debate seeking parliamentary approval for the Government's decision to appeal the European Commission decision in the Apple tax case.

The 130-page decision will not be published for many months. Apparently all the parties need to go through the document with a fine tooth comb to redact everything that is commercially sensitive.

So what do TDs have to go on today? Well the Department of Finance has prepared a 16-page document setting out the background to the decision and the gist of the case the Government will make on appeal.

There are some new details that are interesting. The first is the admission that if the appeal is lost and the Commission’s findings are upheld, the €13 billion plus interest will be paid to the State.

Now some other EU states might be entitled to claim a portion of the windfall. But will they want really want to do that and antagonise one of the most powerful multinationals in the world?

The most interesting part of the document contains new details about the 1991 and 2007 “opinions” or “letters of comfort” issued by the Revenue to Apple setting out its liabilities under Irish tax laws.

Essentially, operating costs and profits for each of the two Apple subsidiaries were attributed to a “head office” that existed only on paper.

The key concession from Ireland is there was a "mismatch" between the company residency rules in the United States and Ireland that resulted in the two Apple subsidiaries being 'stateless' for tax purposes.

The key passage: “By definition, being a mismatch of two countries’ rules, this was not an issue for Ireland alone. Nevertheless the Irish part of this mismatch has since been addressed through legislative amendments to company tax residence rules.”

Houston, there was a problem, and no amount of frothing will get over it.

The Apple ruling debate: Who to watch out for

We know the Apple ruling vote is going to be a fait accompli as Fianna Fáil is certain to support it hook, line and sinker, and Labour is probably going to support it too.

We keep forgetting how precarious the Government’s situation is, however. More than one defection from Independents could collapse everything.

For now, the Independent Ministers seem to be appeased, although they will be subjected to 140-decibel-plus abuse from the Opposition in the Dáil.

Look out for John Halligan, though. He has said this issue is not one to bring the Government down on, with the budget and Brexit looming.

But his one big issue is Waterford Hospital. And the more he focuses on it, the more he becomes a Healy-Rae with a bouffant.

Fiach Kelly’s report - which indicates that reduced rather than increased services are recommended for Waterford - will certainly jangle a few nerves.

You can be certain that notwithstanding any review or report, if Waterford is not resolved to Halligan’s satisfaction, he will walk.

Having departed the Social Democrats, Stephen Donnelly will also be interesting to listen to. The party certainly slammed the door with a kick behind him, and the reference to his family life was uncalled for.

He is sure to make a well-researched speech and have a strong well-articulated point of view. Will he support the motion? He just might.

What position the remaining two members of the Social Democrats in the Dáil will adopt will also be intriguing. They have argued for the decision to be deferred. Will that mean abstentions or them voting against?

Labour has tabled three amendments. If the amendments fail, I suspect the party will still support the motion, or abstain at the very least.

A few of the gene pool Independents will also support the Government.

Sinn Féin, the Alphabet Alliance and the left-wing Independents will make up a bloc of about 37 or so who will oppose.