Optimism in Iraq after record low casualty rate

IRAQ:MILITARY AND civilian death tolls in Iraq fell dramatically in May, raising hopes that violence is on the wane in the war-torn country.

Nineteen US soldiers were killed, the US military announced yesterday. This figure, the lowest since the US occupied Iraq in early 2003, compared with 52 in April, a seven-month high. The lowest US casualty toll had previously been 21 in February 2004.

According to the Iraqi ministry of health, the number of Iraqi civilian fatalities also plunged to 505 after a seven-month peak of 968 in April. The military says the fall in fatalities is due to the "surge" pacification campaign launched in February 2007 involving 160,000 US troops and thousands of Iraqi soldiers and police. The most recent targets of this campaign have been Shia militias in Baghdad and the southern port of Basra and al-Qaeda in the northern city of Mosul, the group's remaining stronghold.

Officials argue the ceasefire agreed by the government of Nuri al-Maliki with dissident Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the campaign against al-Qaeda by Sunni "awakening councils" have also seriously reduced attacks against US and Iraqi forces and civilians.

In spite of the drop in fatalities, Iraq remains dangerous. Yesterday morning a car bomb killed two passersby and wounded two guards at the Iranian embassy in Baghdad while a senior police official was wounded and a traffic policeman killed in another attack.

On Saturday, a suicide bomber in the town of Hit in Anbar province killed the local police chief, nine policemen and three civilians.

Gen David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, has warned that the security situation remains fragile and reversible.

The fragility of the political situation was demonstrated on Saturday by the announcement by former prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari of the establishment of a National Reform party. Jaafari's defection from the Shia fundamentalist Dawa party of Maliki weakens it ahead of the coming election and is also a blow to the prime minister at a time when he has been trying to show Iraqis that conditions are improving. The National Reform party is likely to contribute to the fracturing of the Shia vote which was united in a communal bloc. Last year the Sadr faction and Fadhila broke away from the bloc, depleting its representation in parliament. National Reform could also threaten the dominance of Dawa and its partner, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, by attracting support from Iraqis fed up with rampant corruption and mismanagement.

Meanwhile, Australia announced it had ended its mission at Nasiriya in southern Iraq and began pulling out 500 troops who were training and providing logistical support to Iraqi units.

Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd had made an election pledge to withdraw the troops during 2008. Several hundred remain at headquarters and to provide security for diplomats. Surveillance aircraft and a ship are still patrolling the Persian Gulf.