Smurfit shareholders could make a tidy profit after many false dawns

Given his criticisms of the company in the past, it would be somewhat churlish of Current Account not to applaud the recent rise in Smurfit shares - up almost 10 per cent since the 2001 results were announced just over two years ago.

Whether that renewed interest in the shares from US institutions, who now own 55 per cent of the stock, is down to a deep-seated belief in Smurfit's trading prospects, or whether it's in expectation of a restructuring of Smurfit's 33 per cent stake in Smurfit Stone, is a matter of conjecture.

But at least at the current price around €2.60 to €2.70, the shares are at their best level for almost two years.

Should shareholders hang on for a possible sale of the 33 per cent of Smurfit Stone and a cash distribution - one option being mooted by analysts - or should they take advantage of the apparent pent-up demand for Smurfit shares from US investors who have always taken a more benign view towards the company?

There have been many false dawns for long-suffering Smurfit shareholders, so those who got into Smurfit when the share was low could be forgiven for taking a profit now, especially after Smurfit Stone president Pat Moore's very cautious comments last week about the likelihood of a cut in the containerboard price later this year.