Thursday: As it happened
- US president Donald Trump said he would not use a nuclear weapon against Iran and that he wants a deal to be “everlasting”
- Trumps earlier claimed the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz and berated Iran for “not knowing” who its leader is
- A second round of peace talks between Israel and Lebanon was scheduled to take place in the White House, while US-Iran talks that were slated to resume this week were thrown into doubt
- Israel continued attacks on southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip despite ceasefires remaining in place in both areas
- Israeli strikes killed one journalist and wounded another in southern Lebanon
Key reads
- One EU state has much more to fear from the Iran war than any other
- Analysis: Iran’s hardliners are winning out over pragmatists
- Amal Khalil, the Lebanese journalist killed by Israel, continued working despite threats
That concludes Thursday’s live coverage of the US-Israel war on Iran and the wider Middle East conflict.
Stay with us on Friday for more news and analysis on irishtimes.com.
The Israeli military said on Thursday several launches that crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel were intercepted after it said earlier that sirens sounded in the Shtula area near the border. – Reuters
US president Donald Trump said on Thursday that he would not use a nuclear weapon in the war against Iran.
“Why would I use a nuclear weapon? We’ve totally, in a very conventional way, decimated them without it,” Trump told reporters at the White House when asked whether he would use such a weapon.
“No, I wouldn’t use it. A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody,” he added.
Asked how long he was willing to wait for a long-term peace deal with Iran, Trump said: “Don’t rush me.”
He said Iran might have loaded up their weaponry “a little bit” during the two-week ceasefire, but added that the US military could knock that out in about one day.
“Their navy is gone. Their air force is gone, their anti-aircraft is gone ... maybe they loaded up a little bit during the two-week hiatus, but we’ll knock that out about one day, if they did,” Trump added.
“I want to make the best deal. I could make a deal right now ... but I don’t want to do that. I want to have it everlasting,” Trump said. – Reuters
US central command said on Thursday that 33 vessels have been ordered to turn around or return to port as part of its blockade on ships leaving from or heading to Iran.
That adds two more vessels since its last update on Wednesday night. – The Guardian
Trump plans to host officials from Lebanon and Israel at the White House today to discuss peace negotiations, a senior White House official said.
The ambassador-level meeting had been expected to be hosted by the State Department.
A first round of talks last week helped produce a 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting Hizbullah, Iran’s prominent proxy.
That temporary pause is scheduled to expire on Sunday. – The New York Times
Pope condemns Iranian killing of protesters
Pope Leo on Thursday firmly condemned the killing of protesters in Iran, after US president Donald Trump criticised the Catholic leader last week for not doing so while speaking out against the US-Israel war with Iran.
Leo, the first US pope, also decried the deaths of “so many” civilians in the war and lamented the collapse of US-Iran peace talks in comments aboard his return flight to Rome after a four-nation Africa tour.
“I condemn all actions that are unjust. I condemn the taking of people’s lives,” the pope said in response to a question in a press conference about reports that Iran has killed thousands of protesters.
“When a regime, when a country takes decisions which takes away the lives of other people unjustly, then obviously that is something that should be condemned,” he said.
Leo was attacked by Trump on social media as “terrible” on April 12th, after the pope emerged as an outspoken critic of the Iran war and the president’s hardline anti-immigration policies. In a post two days later, Trump asked “will someone please tell Pope Leo” about the deaths of Iranian protesters.
Iranian authorities killed thousands of people during antigovernment protests in January, Iran’s worst domestic unrest since the era of its 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Leo did not mention Trump in his remarks on Thursday. He said that as leader of the 1.4-billion-member Catholic Church he does not support war.
“As a pastor, I cannot be in favour of war,” he said, adding that he carries with him a photo of a child killed by Israeli strikes targeting Hizbullah militants in Lebanon. – Reuters
Iranian chief negotiator and president issue identical statements
Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf both issued almost identical statements on Thursday evening.
Both statements were issued on X and read, with some difference in punctuation: “In Iran there are no ‘hardliners’ or ‘moderates’. We are all Iranians and revolutionaries. With ironclad unity of nation and state and obedience to the Supreme Leader, we will make the aggressor regret. One God, one nation, one leader, one path; victory for Iran, dearer than life.”
Earlier, several Israeli news sources reported that Ghalibaf, who is also the country’s parliamentary speaker, had resigned from his role as chief negotiator with the US.
Trump says deal with Iran will be made only when it is good for US
In his latest post on Truth Social today, US president Donald Trump has said a deal with Iran will “only be made when it’s appropriate and good” for the US.
In terms of ending the conflict, Trump said he is “possibly the least pressured person ever to be in this position” and that he has “all the time in the world”.
He also reiterated previous US claims that Iran’s navy and air force had been demolished.
‘Iranians are all united’, says foreign minister
Iran’s foreign minister has said that the country’s “state institutions continue to act with unity, purpose, and discipline” amid the ongoing war with the US and Israel.
“The battlefield and diplomacy are fully coordinated fronts in the same war. Iranians are all united, more than ever before,” Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X.
Air defence systems were heard engaging what were described as “hostile targets” in parts of the Iranian capital Tehran on Thursday, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported, after earlier reports that air defence batteries had been activated in the city. – Reuters
Lebanon’s foreign minister Youssef Raggi has said “there is no shame in negotiating with Israel if the goal is to end the war”.
In a post on X, Raggi said: “Lebanon can no longer endure wars fought on its soil on behalf of others, nor can Hezbollah continue to sell the illusion of victory. There is no shame in negotiating with Israel if the goal is to end the war, recover territory, and secure a lasting peace.”
The Israeli military said on Thursday that it killed two armed individuals in the Aainata area of southern Lebanon after identifying them approaching soldiers and posing what it described as “an immediate threat”.
It was not immediately clear whether the incident was related to strikes reported earlier in nearby areas by Lebanon’s health ministry. – Reuters
Six people killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza and Lebanon
An Israeli drone strike killed three men inside a car Thursday in central Gaza Strip, health officials said.
Those killed were taken to al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah.
Two of them were inside the vehicle targeted on Salah al-Din Street near Maghazi camp, while a third was nearby, hospital director Raed Hussein told the Associated Press.
Three others were injured.
A separate Israeli strike on Thursday on southern Lebanon killed three people, the Lebanese health ministry said, the latest attack despite a 10-day truce in the Israel-Hizbullah war.
In a statement, the ministry said that “an Israeli air strike on the Shoukine road in the Nabatieh district”, more than 30 kilometres north of Israel, killed three people while a strike on the village of Yater wounded two people, including a child.
The attacks come hours before the second meeting between Lebanon and Israel’s US ambassadors in Washington, where Beirut is expected to ask for a ceasefire extension. – The Guardian
France will send nearly 10 tons of humanitarian aid to Lebanon on Thursday, a French foreign ministry spokesperson said on Thursday.
“A new delivery of nearly 10 tons is set to take off today. This new package of humanitarian aid responds concretely to the needs of the displaced Lebanese population,” deputy foreign ministry spokesperson Glenn Salic told reporters, adding that the delivery included tents, cooking kits, lamps and other material. – Reuters
Irish peacekeepers ready for deployment to ‘volatile’ Lebanon
Irish peacekeepers are ready to deploy to southern Lebanon despite the “volatile” situation on the ground.
Members of the 128th Infantry Battalion have been taking part in a “mission readiness exercise” in the Glen of Imaal, Co Wicklow, which saw them test different scenarios they may see in deployment including live fire, ambushes, patrolling and casualty evacuations.
They will be deploying to Lebanon in May, in what will be the last major operational deployment before the Unifil mandate expires at the end of the year.
Lieut Zara Bolger said there were some feelings of nervousness and excitement among personnel, but also “confidence in our training”.
On Thursday, personnel conducted a counter improvised explosive device (C-IED) exercise where a vehicle on patrol simulated being struck by a bomb.
Of ongoing concern is Israel’s destruction of bridges over the Litani river, limiting access to Unifil’s area of operations.
The Officer Commanding of the 128th Infantry Battalion said “all courses of action” around deployment are being examined.
Lieut Col Damian Carroll told reporters: “I’ve no concerns in that regard, planning will continue – and we’re ready to deploy in whatever manner they decide.”
He said the situation on the ground is “volatile” but added that Unifil is still fulfilling its mandate. He said he was assured by a recent rotation of Irish and Polish personnel out through Beirut airport.
At the end of last month, the Defence Forces carried out its first personnel rotation in a conflict zone using the new “strategic reach” capability of recently acquired aircraft.
The UN Security Council mandate for the mission expires on December 31st, followed by a 12-month drawdown and ultimate liquidation.
After May, there will also be a rotation of Irish personnel in November – which is expected to have a larger logistical footprint to deal with the end of the mission. – AP
Israeli troops kill boy (15) during West Bank city raid
Israeli troops killed a 15-year-old boy during a raid in the occupied West Bank city of Nablus on Thursday, the Palestinian Authority’s health ministry said.
In a short statement, the ministry announced that “15-year-old Youssef Sameh Shtayyeh was killed by the [Israeli] occupation’s gunfire in Nablus”, in the north of the West Bank.
Contacted by AFP about the incident, the Israeli military said it was looking into it. – The Guardian
UN presence in Lebanon may continue after Unifil mission ends, chief says
Some form of ongoing United Nations presence might continue after a peacekeeping mission in Lebanon ends later this year, UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix said on Thursday.
The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil), first deployed in 1978, has over 7,000 peacekeepers from 47 nations, including members of the Irish Defence Forces.
It has reported five of them killed in recent weeks, three from Indonesia and two from France, in the latest war between Israel and Iran-backed Lebanese group Hizbullah.
Lacroix told reporters in Geneva that he was consulting with all parties about the options after its mandate formally stops at the end of December and will make formal recommendations to the UN security council by June.
“[The Lebanese are] very clear that they would want to keep a UN presence,” he said. “We’re looking at a presence that would probably be smaller than Unifil,” he added.
Unifil’s mandate currently includes monitoring a ceasefire, supporting the Lebanese army in its deployment into the south, and helping it enforce a prohibition of illegal arms there.
Hostilities between Hizbullah and Israel reignited on March 2nd, when the Lebanese group opened fire in support of Iran, and a strained ceasefire is now in place. But attacks continue in southern Lebanon where Israeli troops have seized a self-declared buffer zone.
Lacroix said that he estimated that Israeli forces occupy “a significant stretch of land north of the Blue Line, with a massive level of demolition and no civilians allowed.”
The Blue Line is a UN-mapped line separating Lebanon from Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Unifil has remained in Lebanon through successive conflicts, including a 2024 war during which its positions came under fire repeatedly. – Reuters
Trump claims US controls Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump has claimed the US has “total control” of the strait of Hormuz, as he berated Iran for “not knowing” who its leader is.
Writing on his Truth Social platform, he said: “Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the ‘Hardliners,’ who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the ‘Moderates,’ who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY! We have total control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. It is ‘Sealed up Tight,’ until such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
His latest remarks followed an earlier post saying he ordered the US navy “to shoot and kill” any boat “that is putting mines in the waters of the strait of Hormuz.”
He also said that US minesweepers were working “at a tripled up level” to clear any mines from the waters. – The Guardian
Thursday afternoon recap
Sports minister rules out Italy replacing Iran in World Cup
Italy’s government has ruled out any suggestion the country could replace Iran at this summer’s World Cup due to the war in the Middle East.
Italian sports minister Andrea Abodi said it would not be appropriate for Italy to replace the Iranian team, telling Sky News “qualification is done on the pitch”.
Abodi was responding to comments made by Paolo Zampolli, a US special envoy, who yesterday told the Financial Times he had floated the idea to Donald Trump and to Fifa president Gianni Infantino.
Lebanese journalist killed in Israeli attack had spoken of death threat
The Lebanese journalist killed in an Israeli attack on Wednesday had previously spoken of receiving a threat via an unidentified Israeli phone number that she would be killed if she did not leave southern Lebanon, where she had long been based and worked.
Amal Khalil, 43, who worked for al-Akhbar newspaper and had described herself as supporting the resistance against Israel “whether communist or Islamist”, was killed yesterday in a sustained attack by Israeli forces in which a colleague was also wounded.
In 2024, Khalil told local media she had received an Israeli death threat warning her to leave the south and threatening to destroy her home and decapitate her. Khalil said she had “received a message from an Israeli enemy” urging her to leave.
“I have informed the relevant authorities about this, as the enemy has recently used this tactic with many others there,” she said at the time.
According to Khalil, the warning – allegedly sent from an Israeli phone number – included details of her recent movements and said: “We know where you are and we will reach you when the time comes.”
It was not clear who had sent the message.
Khalil was the ninth journalist killed in Lebanon this year. Last month three journalists were killed in a double-tap attack.
International media rights organisations have expressed outrage over the scores of attacks on journalists in Gaza and Lebanon. At least 235 Palestinian journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza since October 2024, according to the International Federation of Journalists. – The Guardian
US military boards sanctioned tanker, Pentagon says
The US military stopped and boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Indian Ocean which the Pentagon said was carrying oil from Iran, in the second such action this week.
The US defence department, which Trump renamed the department of war, said its forces carried out “a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding” of the MT Majestic X overnight.
“We will continue global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate,” it said in a post on social media.
On Tuesday, the US navy boarded another sanctioned tanker in the Asia Pacific region, the MT Tifani, after the Pentagon said it was “providing material support to Iran”. – The Guardian
German recession risk jumps as Iran war lifts energy prices
The risk of Germany slipping into recession has risen sharply due to the Iran war, a study by the IMK institute on Thursday showed, as higher energy prices, supply disruption and weaker sentiment cloud the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
The monthly business cycle indicator compiled by the Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Research (IMK) showed a 33.5 per cent probability of recession for the second quarter, up from 11.6 per cent at the beginning of March.
The indicator also shifted for the first time since October from “yellow-green”, signalling moderate growth, to “yellow-red”, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty.
Germany’s economy ministry cut its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 and raised its inflation projections on Wednesday.
IMK said the worsening outlook was driven by deteriorating financial market and sentiment indicators, including higher corporate credit risk premiums, increased stock market volatility and interest-rate developments suggesting investors expect rate tightening by the European Central Bank. – Reuters
‘Iranians armed to the teeth stormed the ship’
Two container ships seized by Iran near the Strait of Hormuz with about 40 crew aboard have been taken toward the port of Bandar Abbas, sources said on Thursday.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the ships on Wednesday, one operated by MSC, the world’s biggest container shipping group and, according to three sources, the other chartered by the firm.
“Some 20 Iranians armed to the teeth stormed the ship. Sailors are under Iranians’ control, their movements on the ship are limited, but the Iranians are treating them well,” a relative of one of the seafarers involved told Reuters.
“The ship is anchored nine nautical miles from the Iranian coast. Negotiations between MSC and Iran are ongoing, our sailors are fine,” Montenegro’s minister of maritime affairs, Filip Radulovic, told state broadcaster RTCG.
Four sailors on the MSC Francesca including its captain are from Montenegro, he said. Two Croatians are also aboard, Croatia’s foreign ministry confirmed.
Full details on the crew of the Panama-flagged ship have not been made available, but large container vessels normally require a minimum of about 20. MSC has declined to comment.
The Liberia-flagged Epaminondas has a crew of 21 members made up of Ukrainians and Filipinos, according to the Greek coast guard. It had been bound for India.
Both crews were reported safe, but authorities in their home countries said they were seeking information about the wellbeing of the seafarers and working on their release.
There has been no information released about what, if any, cargo the ships were carrying. – Reuters
Italy ready to deploy minesweepers in Hormuz, navy chief says
Italy is ready to deploy up to four vessels, including two minesweepers, as part of an international mission to clear the Strait of Hormuz, the navy’s chief of staff said.
European leaders met in Paris last week to discuss a multinational effort to protect shipping through the strait. More than a dozen countries, including Italy, have said they would join a mission to ensure safe passage once conditions allow.
“The contingency plan drawn up by the chief of the defence staff envisages a group consisting of two minesweepers, an escort vessel and a logistics vessel,” navy vhief of staff Giuseppe Berutti Bergotto told state broadcaster RAI late on Wednesday.
“Obviously we are not acting alone. We are part of an international coalition, and other nations will also send minesweepers,” he said, adding that Britain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands had mine-clearing capabilities. – Reuters
Trump orders US navy to ‘shoot and kill any boat putting mines in Strait of Hormuz’
US president Donald Trump says he has ordered the navy “to shoot and kill any boat ... that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz”.
In a post on Truth Social in the last few minutes, Trump wrote: “There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine ‘sweepers’ are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level!”
Footage shows Iranian soldiers storming huge cargo ship
Iran showed off its tightened grip over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday with video of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship, after the collapse of peace talks that Washington had hoped would open the world’s most important shipping corridor.
State television broadcast footage overnight of masked troops pulling up in a grey speedboat alongside the MSC Francesca, climbing a rope ladder to a shell door in the hull and jumping through while brandishing rifles. – Reuters
EU not on track to fill gas storage 90% before winter
European Union countries are set to fall short of the bloc’s requirement to fill gas storage to 90 per cent of capacity before next winter, because of the Iran war’s disruption to global fuel markets, the European energy regulators’ agency ACER said on Thursday.
Countries should be able to reach a lower 80 per cent filling level – a flexibility the EU rules allow in difficult market conditions, ACER said. But it added that hitting this level “will likely come at a premium cost” and be vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Filling storage to 90 per cent would require the EU to increase its LNG imports by 13 per cent compared with 2025, ACER said. That will be difficult given tight global supplies. The Iran war has upended global gas markets by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, which usually transits around 20 per cent of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Iranian attacks on Qatari gas infrastructure have caused damage Qatar says will take years to repair.
While most of the EU’s gas imports come from outside the Middle East – from Norway and the US – the disruption to global supplies has forced European buyers to compete with those in Asia for flexible LNG cargoes, and increased European gas prices by around 40 per cent.
Europe’s current reserves of stored gas are unusually low, after a cold winter. The current high prices are deterring companies from buying gas for storage.
EU gas storage is currently 31 per cent full, the lowest level for this time of year since 2022, when Russia slashed gas supplies to Europe, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.
Gas from storage typically covers up to a third of EU gas demand in winter. The European Commission has urged governments to start refilling gas storage as soon as possible, and said on Wednesday it will step in to co-ordinate countries’ efforts to avoid them rushing to buy gas at the same time and causing new price spikes. – Reuters
American Airlines has warned that the surge in fuel prices from the Iran war will cost it $4 billion (€3.4 billion) this year.
The company has cut its earning guidance today – it now expects to make between a 40 cents per share loss and a $1.10 (€0.94) per share profit this financial year. That’s down from a previous forecast of a profit of between $1.70 to $2.70 (€1.45 to €2.30) per share. – The Guardian
Conflict has ripple effect on global markets
Step back and the picture of creeping economic fallout from the Iran conflict becomes a little clearer. Numerous reports of the global ripple effects are coming in.
As Europe braces for higher prices and reduced supplies of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, Sweden has said it may need to restrict how much energy its citizens can use, if supplies from the Middle East remain disrupted. “We cannot rule out state rationing, but we are not there yet,” prime minister Ulf Kristersson said at a news conference in Stockholm on Thursday.
The ongoing crisis has already wiped out an estimated 0.5 to 0.8 per cent of global GDP, according to the UN.
The S&P Global’s purchasing manager indexes suggests further damage to euro zone private-sector activity, alongside fragile resilience in Asia.
Thursday’s raft of numbers, featuring initial responses before fuller results come in May, showed Germany worst-hit, with the manufacturing and services gauges both declining again. By contrast, companies from Australia to Japan and the UK appeared largely steadier, though haunted by worries of supply disruptions.
“Significant damage to the economy has already been done – now it’s just a question of how much worse it will get,” said Sonja Marten, chief economist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. “This will depend entirely on how much longer the war goes on and how much longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”
Futures linked to Canada’s main stock index have fallen too. On the country’s S&P/TSX index, they were down 0.7 per cent on Thursday morning. – Bloomberg/The Guardian
Max jet mode: Europe scrambles to produce jet oil
Shell said Europe’s oil refineries are working flat-out to make jet fuel as airlines warn of a supply crunch, with the aviation industry fast becoming a primary pinch point because of the Iran war.
The company’s own plant, Europe’s biggest in the port of Rotterdam, is now churning out as much of the fuel as it can, Frans Everts, head of the company’s Dutch business, told journalists on Wednesday at the site. He didn’t elaborate on what those levels were.
“Very clearly every refinery in Europe is on what we call max jet mode,” he said.
Europe is heavily reliant on imports of jet fuel, having lost its main source of external supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While airlines now face eye-watering prices for fuel, the conflict has also pushed up the cost of crude on international markets, eroding margins for oil processors and raising questions as to how hard they run their fuel-making plants.
The Shell Pernis refinery in Rotterdam has been forced to look for alternatives to crude grades from the Middle East where some of the world’s biggest oil producers have been forced to cut production. The near full closure of the vital Hormuz energy channel has choked off millions of barrels of supply since the end of February. European refineries are already running on oil that had been stockpiled for emergencies.
“We’re looking at different sources and the market, of course, completely needs to reorient itself,” Everts said.
The shortage of jet fuel is causing havoc for the airline industry globally, with carriers starting to count the costs. EasyJet estimates that the Middle East conflict added £25 million (€29 million) in fuel costs in March. Alaska Air Group this week suspended guidance for the full year and forecast a deeper loss than Wall Street was expecting for the second quarter.
Dutch carrier KLM has said it will operate fewer flights from Amsterdam’s Schipol airport, which is supplied from Pernis. Deutsche Lufthansa said this week it will also scrub flights this summer to save on fuel. – Bloomberg
More than 30 million people will be pushed back into poverty by the impacts of the Iran war including disruptions to fuel and fertiliser supplies just as farmers are planting crops, UN development chief Alexander De Croo said on Thursday.
Fertiliser shortages - worsened by the blocking of cargo vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - have already lowered agricultural productivity, the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) told Reuters.
That would likely hit crop yields later this year, the former Belgian prime minister added.
“Food insecurity will be at its peak level in a few months - and there is not much that you can do about it,” he said, also listing other fallouts of the crisis including energy shortages and falling remittances.
“Even if the war would stop tomorrow, those effects, you already have them, and they will be pushing back more than 30 million people into poverty,” he said.
Much of the world’s fertilizer is produced in the Middle East, and one-third of global supplies passes through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the United States are jostling for control.
Earlier this month, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the UN World Food Programme warned that the war will drive up food prices, further burdening the world’s most vulnerable populations.
De Croo said the knock-on effects of the crisis have already wiped out an estimated 0.5 to 0.8 per cent of global GDP. “Things that take decades to build up, it takes eight weeks of war to destroy them,” he said.
The crisis was also straining humanitarian efforts as funding shrinks and needs rise in places already facing severe emergencies, including Sudan, Gaza and Ukraine.
“We will have to say to certain people, really sorry, but we can’t help you,” he said.
“People who would be surviving on help will not have this and will be pushed into even greater vulnerability.” - Reuters
Cracks emerging in US business interests despite Trump’s previous posturing about not needing oil from the Strait. Tell that to American Airlines which has cut its 2026 profit forecast on Thursday, as sky-high jet fuel costs driven by the Iran war eat into profits.
Reuters reports that the carrier now expects to report between 40 cents per share loss and a $1.10 per share profit, compared with $1.70 to $2.70 profit per share forecast earlier.
The secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) played down on Thursday the risk of stagflation due to the Iran crisis.
Asked whether the OECD feared a repetition of the stagflation seen in the 1970s, Mathias Cormann said: “We don’t see as a base-case scenario a risk of stagflation.
“What we experience today is different...Today’s inflation is being driven primarily by a specific supply shock in energy prices rather than broad-based demand,” he told a panel discussion at an economic forum in Delphi, Greece.
The global economy has some genuine sources of strength, he added.
Stagflation is a combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation and unemployment.
European shares fell on Thursday as renewed shipping concerns in the strategic Strait of Hormuz dampened investor sentiment, while market participants parsed through a wave of corporate earnings reports.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.4 per cent just before 9am GMT.
Most of the major regional markets mirrored this downward trend, with Germany’s DAX and London’s FTSE 100 dropping 0.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.
There was hardly any reprieve in the Middle East conflict as Iran tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, after president Donald Trump made what appeared to be a unilateral announcement on Tuesday that the US would extend the Iran ceasefire.
The developments left markets nervous about whether the fragile ceasefire would hold.
“The absence of any peace talks between the US and Iran has led investors to price in a longer conflict again, along with a more extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” analysts at Deutsche Bank Research said. - Reuters
About 10.7 million barrels of Iranian crude exports crossed through the Strait of Hormuz and exited the area blockaded by the US navy between April 13th and 21st, data analytics firm Vortexa said.
Reuters is reporting that the shipments transited on six crude carriers that had their Automatic Identification System (AIS) data switched off.
AIS is used in maritime traffic to transmit information on vessels including identification, position and speed among other indicators.
The blockade, Vortexa said, “is not necessarily implemented close to Iranian ports nor within the Strait of Hormuz, but flexibly around an area about 300 miles to the West between the Pakistani/Iranian border and the most western ‘corner’ of Oman.”
It recorded 35 total transits through the US blockade from April 13th to 22nd, involving Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels for inbound and outbound journeys.
On Wednesday, the US military said it had so far directed 29 vessels to turn around or return to port.
According to the Financial Times, the dismissal of US navy secretary John Phelan (pictured above) comes as defence secretary Pete Hegseth has sought to remove a series of Pentagon leaders seen to be at odds with the administration.
A senior administration official on Wednesday said: “President Trump and secretary Hegseth agreed new leadership at the navy is needed. Secretary Hegseth informed John Phelan of this news prior to it being made public.”
As the top civilian official for the US navy, reporting to Hegseth, Phelan had led an effort to rebuild America’s military shipbuilding capacity and establish a “Golden Fleet” for the US.
A person familiar with the matter said there had been tensions with the top civilian leaders at the Pentagon, including Hegseth, over the shipbuilding programme as well as nominations and promotions of military officers.
His exit comes in the middle of one of the most consequential missions for US naval forces in decades: the blockade of vessels transiting in and out of Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz.
There are 21 US warships in the region, with seven more on the way. More than a dozen of them are involved in the American naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Phelan’s departure is the latest episode in Hegseth’s efforts to shake up the Pentagon, which began at the start of Trump’s second term and has become a defining feature of his tenure.
Leadership changes and internal tensions have continued even as the US military embarked on increasingly aggressive military campaigns from the Iran war launched in late February to the raid on Venezuela in January and continued strikes against alleged drug boats.
Add us as a preferred source in Google search
Trump envoy suggests Italy should replace Iran at World Cup
An envoy to US president Donald Trump has suggested Italy should replace Iran at this summer’s World Cup.
Iran’s participation in the finals has been cast into doubt by the conflict in the Middle East.
Paolo Zampolli, a US special envoy, confirmed to the Financial Times he had floated the idea, of four-time winners Italy stepping in, to Trump and to Fifa president Gianni Infantino.
“I’m an Italian native and it would be a dream to see the Azzurri at a US-hosted tournament,” he told the FT. “With four titles, they have the pedigree to justify inclusion.”
The FT reported that Zampolli’s suggestion came in part in an effort to rebuild relations between the US and Italy, which have been impacted after Trump criticised the pope for his comments about the Middle East conflict.
Iran are due to play their three group matches in the US, starting with a clash against New Zealand in Los Angeles on June 15th. Should Iran and the US finish second in their respective groups, they are on course to meet in the last 32 in Dallas. – PA
Lebanon to request one-month ceasefire extension
The second round of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon is scheduled to take place today in Washington, while the US-Iran talks that were slated to resume this week in Pakistan have been thrown into doubt.
Lebanon plans to request a one-month extension of a ceasefire that is due to expire on Sunday, according to reports. Despite a 10-day truce, Israeli forces killed at least five people in southern Lebanon yesterday, including Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil.
Meanwhile, Pakistan remains prepared for potential talks between US and Iranian negotiators. Pakistan’s interior minister, Mohsin Naqvi, said he hoped for “positive progress” from Iran after a meeting with the US ambassador to Pakistan, Natalie Baker, in Islamabad today.
In a statement, the Pakistani interior ministry said the officials discussed diplomatic efforts related to reconvene the US-Iran ceasefire talks, which was delayed after Tehran did not confirm when it would send its delegation.
Naqvi said Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir were making efforts “at every level” to support a peaceful settlement and hoped all sides would give diplomacy a chance. – The Guardian
Iran behind low-level ‘hybrid warfare’ attacks in UK, Europe, analysts say
Iranian intelligence services and Revolutionary Guards operatives are recruiting teenagers through criminal intermediaries to launch a wave of low-level “hybrid warfare” attacks in Europe and the UK, according to investigators, security officials, analysts and police documents.
A first wave of attacks was launched in early March, 10 days after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, and targeted Jewish community sites in Belgium, the Netherlands and US banks. A second wave has focused on the UK, with a series of arson and attempted arson attacks on synagogues, a Jewish charity and the offices of an Iranian opposition TV network in London.
On Tuesday, British police said they had arrested seven people for allegedly plotting a further firebombing, and a teenager pleaded guilty to an arson attack on a synagogue in west London on Saturday.
Analysts and security officials say that although there is no direct proof of Iran’s involvement, multiple factors strongly suggest the attacks are part of a campaign of hybrid warfare launched by Tehran to destabilise US allies and warn of them potential cost of greater involvement in the conflict, while also harming Jewish communities seen as supportive of Israel. – The Guardian
Message from the Editor
European gas prices up
European gas prices are up 4.3 per cent, to €45.40 per megawatt hour.
The month-ahead UK wholesale gas contract is up 4.8 per cent at 113.7p (€1.31) per therm, its highest in over a week. Before the Iran war began at the end of February, UK gas was trading below 80p (92c) a therm, but rose as high as 180p (€2.07) a therm in March. – The Guardian
Israeli strikes kill journalist in Lebanon
Israeli strikes killed one journalist and wounded another in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, rattling a tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
The Lebanese ministry of public health said the Israeli military had targeted the journalists in the town of Tayri, where they took shelter in a nearby house after an air strike struck a vehicle in front of the car they were travelling in.
About an hour-and-a-half later, a second strike hit the house they were hiding in, according to a statement by a Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which employed the journalist who was killed.
The Lebanese Red Cross said its teams came under fire while trying to evacuate the journalists from the house, forcing them to withdraw. The rescue crews were targeted by a warning strike and machine-gun fire, the Lebanese health ministry said.
Zeinab Faraj, a photojournalist, was rescued from the house. The other journalist, Amal Khalil, who was a reporter for Al-Akhbar, remained trapped under rubble for hours before emergency medics recovered her body, according to Lebanon’s civil defence.
Euro zone yields climb for fourth day amid Iran-US stalemate
Euro zone short-dated government bond yields rose for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz bolstered expectations of further European Central Bank rate hikes later this year.
Borrowing costs have tracked gains in oil prices, which have stoked concerns about inflation and raised the prospect of a swift hawkish response from the ECB.
Investors will closely watch PMI data later in the session, especially price indices, for clues on the inflationary effects of higher energy costs.
Germany’s two-year yields, more sensitive to expectations for policy rates, rose 3 basis points (bps) at 2.57 per cent. They reached 2.771 per cent in late March, the highest since July 2024.
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield rose 4 bps to 3.04 per cent. It reached 3.13 per cent in late March, its highest level since June 2011.
Money markets priced in an ECB deposit facility rate at 2.59 per cent by year-end, implying two hikes and an about 35 per cent chance of a third move, from around 2.35 per cent late Friday.
Italy’s 10-year government bond yields rose 6 bps to 3.85 per cent. The yield gap of Italian government bonds versus Bunds was at 76 bps. It was at 63 bps before the attack against Iran and hit 103.62 during the conflict, the highest since June 2025. – Reuters
Israel buys more aerial munitions
The Israeli defence ministry said it has bought $200 million (€170 million) worth of aerial munitions from arms manufacturer Elbit Systems.
The ministry said the deal for missiles and other weaponry for strikes and interceptions was part of “improving readiness for immediate combat scenarios and preparing for a decade of strong defences”.
A similar deal was signed between the ministry and Elbit for aerial munitions in January for $183 million (€156 million). – The Guardian
Senior US navy official is reportedly fired
The Pentagon announced on Wednesday that the US navy’s top civilian official, John Phelan, the secretary of the navy, is leaving his job.
In a statement posted to social media, Sean Parnell, a Pentagon spokesperson, said Phelan was “departing the administration, effective immediately”.
Hung Cao, the navy undersecretary, would become acting secretary of the navy, Parnell said.
Reuters, citing an anonymous source, reported Phelan had been fired by the Pentagon.
The sudden departure comes just a day after Phelan addressed a large crowd of sailors and industry professionals at the navy’s annual conference in Washington, DC, and spoke with reporters about his agenda.
Phelan’s departure also comes just weeks after Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, fired the army’s top officer, Gen Randy George. Hegseth also has fired several top generals, admirals and other defence leaders since taking office last year.
As with many of those other firings, Pentagon officials did not offer a reason for Phelan’s departure. – The Guardian
Oil prices rise as peace talks stall
Oil prices extended their gains on Thursday in the wake of stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States, and as both nations maintained restrictions on the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures rose $1.37 (€1.17), or 1.3 per cent, to $103.28 (€88.22) a barrel on Thursday morning, after settling above $100 (€93.96) for the first time in more than two weeks on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate futures were also up $1.52 (€1.29), or 1.6 per cent, at $94.48 (€80.70).
Both benchmarks closed more than $3 higher on Wednesday after larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate stock draws in the US, and over the lack of progress on Iran peace talks.
“The oil market is repricing expectations with little sign of progress in finding a resolution in the Persian Gulf,” said ING analysts in a note, adding that hopes for a resolution are fading as peace talks stall.
“In addition, Iran’s seizure of two vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz suggests disruptions to shipments are set to continue.”
While US president Donald Trump extended a ceasefire between the countries following a request by Pakistani mediators, Iran and the US are still restricting the transit of ships through the strait, which carried about 20 per cent of daily global oil supplies until the war began on February 28th. – Reuters
Iran seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz ahead of possible new talks
Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway amid reports that peace talks could begin on Friday, Mark Weiss in Jerusalem writes.
In a statement on Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the ships seized, which they identified as the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca and the Liberia-flagged Epaminodes, were detained for “operating without the required authorisation and for manipulating navigation systems” and were transferred to Iranian shores.
The Greek-operated Epaminondas reported being fired upon off Oman. It said it had sustained damage to its bridge and that no one was hurt in the incident.
The ship seizures represent a serious escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, where a battle for control of the vital waterway has emerged as a major stumbling block in negotiations to end the war.
