Despite the extension of a ceasefire in the Iran war, tensions are mounting quickly in the Gulf. A US blockade of ships bound for ports in Iran means more than two dozen Iranian ships have been prevented from sailing, prompting Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) units to seize two foreign vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and open fire on a third ship for breaching maritime regulations.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, said he has ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” putting mines in the strait.
While Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wants “dialogue and agreement” to resolve the conflict, there are growing signs he wields less power than before. Under the current leadership, the generals are prevailing and there are no signs of disarray among them.
What evidence of division is there among Iran’s leaders?
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Since the February assassination by the US and Israel of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the wounding of his son and successor Mojtaba, the regime had altered from moderate civilian to hardline military.
This was not the regime change Washington and Tel Aviv had intended.
Gravely ill Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public, and IRGC commander brigadier general Ahmad Vahidi has emerged as his confidant and replacement. He and Pezeshkian have political differences, especially on the war.
So who is in charge of Iran now?
There are growing signs that battle-hardened commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and those aligned with them are now the key decision makers on matters of security, war and diplomacy.
Earlier this month Vahidi blocked Pezeshkian’s appointment of a new intelligence minister, arguing that wartime security appointments should be by the IRGC, reported Britain-based opposition Iran International. Iranian state media has denied this and earlier reports of differences between Vahidi and Pezeshkian.
The IRGC has contradicted and acted against foreign minister Abbas Araghchi who wrote last week on X “the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.” IRGC-affiliated Tasnim outlet and state media dismissed his statement.
Tasnim called this a “bad and incomplete tweet that created misleading ambiguity about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”
The strait opened and was closed by the IRGC after 24 hours.
“Approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered co-operation with the enemy, and any offending vessel will be targeted,” the IRGC announced. It has allowed passage through the strait only by commercial vessels and oil tankers “with the permission and co-ordination of the IRGC.”
[ Iran dismisses US ‘ploy’ after Donald Trump extends ceasefire ‘indefinitely’Opens in new window ]
Does this have implications for peace talks?
US president Donald Trump has responded to Iran’s more hardline position by escalating rather than cooling tensions.
US warships seized an Iranian-flagged container vessel near Hormuz as it was bound for the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas in the Arabian Sea. The US said the ship had violated the US naval blockade on all Iranian ports.
Tehran has said it would not attend talks until the blockade was lifted. A defiant US followed up this operation in the distant Bay of Bengal off India by detaining another tanker under sanction for carrying Iranian oil.
Are talks any more or less likely to succeed?
It is difficult to see fruitful talks taking place during the current climate of confrontation. Trump has said there is “no time frame” for ending the conflict.
[ Iran seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz ahead of possible new peace talksOpens in new window ]
