Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have engaged in a joint effort to dissuade the United States from mounting military strikes against Iran that could provoke retaliation against US allies and interests in the Gulf.
All three have ties with Tehran and would have much to lose from regional instability.
Iran, for its part, has warned of serious consequences flowing from outside military intervention. If the US or Israel attacked Iran, “centres of the US military and shipping will be our legitimate targets”, stated Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
In addition, Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari stated that any escalation “would have catastrophic results in the region and beyond, and therefore we want to avoid that as much as possible.”
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He called for diplomacy to resolve this crisis: “We are working on this with our neighbours and partners.”
The Wall Street Journal reported Riyadh’s fears that escalation could harm the Saudi economy and risk domestic protests, especially if Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei were slain.
Saudi Arabia has a 10-15 per cent minority of highly politicised Shias who have previously clashed over discrimination and marginalisation.
Saudi officials told Tehran that Riyadh would not join US attacks or allow US warplanes to use the kingdom’s airspace to bomb Iran.
Gulf states also expressed concern that US strikes on Iran could prompt Tehran to carry out operations to disrupt the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for access to global markets.
US Gulf allies have also warned Washington against promoting destabilising regime change.
The warnings may have paid off.
While US president Donald Trump repeatedly warned Tehran that Washington would intervene militarily if its security forces killed Iranians participating, there was an abrupt change in tone on Wednesday.
The US president indicated that he had postponed any involvement.
“We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping – it’s stopped – it’s stopping. And there’s no plan for executions.”
Another potential calculation for Trump could be that any US attacks might backfire.
Nationalist Iranians could unite against external intervention to protect the regime. Many resentful Iranians recall Washington’s 1953 coup against the elected government of Mohammed Mosaddegh, a popular figure who nationalised Iran’s oil industry.
After his ousting, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi regained power and ruled undemocratically until Islamists ousted him in 1979. His grandson Reza Pahlavi has promoted himself as a pro-western ally who could reign if the current authoritarian Islamic regime is overthrown.
On this, too, Trump has been lukewarm. On Wednesday, he said that while Pahlavi “seems very nice”, the US president expressed uncertainty over whether he would be able to muster support within Iran to eventually take over.
