IRELAND: Jamie Osborne; Rob Baloucoune, Garry Ringrose, Stuart McCloskey, Tommy O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Tom O’Toole, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt). Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Mike Milne, Finlay Bealham, Darragh Murray, Nick Timoney, Craig Casey, Ciarán Frawley, Bundee Aki.
SCOTLAND: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Kyle Steyn; Finn Russell (vice-capt), Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Max Williamson, Grant Gilchrist; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge (vice-capt), Jack Dempsey. Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, D’Arcy Rae, Alex Craig, Magnus Bradbury, George Horne, Kyle Rowe, Tom Jordan.
Key reads:
- Six Nations permutations: Here’s how Ireland can win the title
- Ireland’s 11-match winning streak against Scotland
- Gordon D’Arcy: Have Scotland closed the gap on Ireland?
Join The Irish Times Rugby WhatsApp channel to stay up to date with all the latest Six Nations news, and get The Irish Times rugby coverage sent direct to your inbox by signing up to Gerry Thornley’s Counter Ruck newsletter.
I’m going to leave it there for today. Gerry Thornley will have quotes from Andy Farrell’s press conference shortly, so keep an eye on the website for that.
We’ll be back on Saturday, when Nathan Johns will have live updates of Ireland v Scotland, followed by ratings, comment and analysis from our rugby writers.
Thanks for following along!
For Ireland’s game against Wales in Dublin last weekend, you likely noticed the visitors sported a white kit rather than their normal red jerseys.
That was down to changes which aim to make viewing easier for those impacted by colour vision deficiency (CVD), helping them to better distinguish opposing teams.
As red-green colour-blindness is the most common form of CVD, Ireland v Wales is a prime example of the changes in action. With Ireland wearing green, Wales instead wore their white second kit, and Ireland did similar when the sides met in Cardiff last season.
But kits will also be to the fore on Saturday night when France host England, Les Bleus opting to don a very light blue jersey to mark 120 years of Le Crunch.
So that’s France’s very light blue versus England’s stark white. Interesting. Officials have given it the all clear, but let’s see how that pans out.
What’s an Ireland-Scotland matchup with some fighting talk before kick-off? This time, Darcy Graham was on the mic with something to rile Ireland up.
“I think they’re there for the taking,” the Scotland winger said of Ireland. “They’ve probably not been firing as well as they have in previous campaigns.”
In fairness, he didn’t get too ahead of himself, adding: “They’re still a world-class team, and it’s a difficult place to go. I’ve never been there and won, and I can’t even remember the last time we won there. It’s been a long time.
“But our confidence is right up there. We’ll go there full guns blazing.”
We’ve already asked the uncomfortable question as to who is currently Ireland’s best goalkicker, so let’s stick to the tough questions.
“Have Scotland closed the gap on Ireland?” Gordon D’Arcy seeks to answer in his latest column.
“The match at the Aviva will serve as a genuine benchmarking process between two teams moving in interesting directions,” D’Arcy writes.
“Ireland have comfortably had Scotland’s measure for over a decade. But the Scots are currently the form team in this championship, and Saturday will answer a question that’s been quietly building. Have they closed the gap on Ireland, or have Ireland regressed? Probably both, to some degree.”
Read D’Arcy’s column in full below:
[ Gordon D’Arcy: Have Scotland closed the gap on Ireland?Opens in new window ]
“A classic Six Nations has the finale it deserves, if not quite the one many anticipated,” Gerry Thornley writes of Saturday’s opening game. “Scotland’s stunning 50-40 win over France at Murrayfield on Saturday has made their clash with Ireland at the Aviva Stadium the most meaningful between the two countries in Six Nations history.
“Not since Scotland won the last five nations in 1999 have they been in contention to win the title on the final day.”
On the allure of a final-day crunch, he adds: “It’s the first time since Super Saturday in 2015, arguably the most dramatic in the championship’s history, when three teams go into the final day with a chance of being champions.”
Gerry notes that time around all three of the last round fixtures were of relevance to the title race, which isn’t the case on Saturday as the Wales-Italy result will have no bearing on the top of the table.
Read Gerry’s look ahead to the weekend’s action in full below:
[ Gerry Thornley: Six Nations championship in the balance after pulsating weekendOpens in new window ]
In his latest analysis piece, Nathan Johns has asked a question which is sure to divide Irish fans – who is the best goalkicker in Ireland?
Looking at the very technical sounding xGK statistics (a team’s expected goal-kicking success rate), Nathan gleaned that with a xGK of 83.5 per cent versus a 70 per cent success rate for goals kicked: “Not only are Ireland the worst team in the competition when it comes to actual kick success rate, they are the only side to have underperformed their xGK figure.
“Translation: when assessing those doing the kicking, the location of the place kick and historical success rate, Ireland are the lone side to have done worse than what the data predicts. They’re missing kicks they absolutely should not be missing.”
While more than just goal-kicking must factor into the decision of who plays 10, Nathan points out that if Saturday’s game against Scotland proves to be a close encounter, then who’s standing over the tee will matter enormously.
Read the piece in full below:
[ Ireland’s goalkicking could prove a serious problem if Scotland game is tightOpens in new window ]
So that’s four changes to Ireland’s starting team against Wales – Dan Sheehan, Joe McCarthy, Josh van der Flier and Tommy O’Brien all restore to the XV.
“It is an incredible privilege for the squad to play at home in front of a packed Aviva Stadium with a trophy up for grabs,” head coach Andy Farrell said announcing his side for the weekend.
“We know about the challenge facing us on Saturday and Scotland will travel with confidence. You’ll see two teams who like to attack and we’ll look to implement our game plan to get the performance that we want. When you factor in a loud home support, and with the game taking place on St Patrick’s weekend, it really has all the ingredients for a cracking contest.”
Gerry Thornley will be hearing more from Farrell later, so stick around for that.
Gerry Thornley has this quick take on the team for us:
Andy Farrell has chosen Tommy O’Brien on the left wing and restored three of the Ireland pack which started in Twickenham for Saturday’s Six Nations finale against Scotland at the Aviva Stadium (kick-off 2.10pm).
Dan Sheehan has been recalled at hooker after being rested for Ireland’s win over Wales, as have Joe McCarthy and Josh van der Flier, who were replacements last weekend.
Rónan Kelleher and Nick Timoney move to the bench, where they’re joined by Finlay Bealham, Darragh Murray, Craig Casey and Bundee Aki. The Connacht centre is in line for his first appearance of the championship after he was unavailable for the early part of the campaign due to suspension.
In the absence of James Ryan, who misses out through a calf injury, Murray is set to win his third cap for Ireland. The 24-year-old has played over 50 times for Connacht and started both of Ireland’s summer Tests away to Georgia and Portugal.
O’Brien scored a brace in those two summer Tests and started Ireland’s four November Tests before having something of a rollercoaster this Six Nations. He started in the opening game against France but was omitted against Italy before being named on the bench against England.
The 27-year-old came on for the injured James Lowe 20 minutes into the game at Twickenham, scoring a try just 10 minutes after his introduction. Jacob Stockdale, who was picked in Lowe’s absence against Wales, has missed out on the matchday 23.
Andy Farrell has named his side to face Scotland, here’s how Ireland line out:
IRELAND: Jamie Osborne; Rob Baloucoune, Garry Ringrose, Stuart McCloskey, Tommy O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Tom O’Toole, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Mike Milne, Finlay Bealham, Darragh Murray, Nick Timoney, Craig Casey, Ciarán Frawley, Bundee Aki.
And here’s a reminder of how Scotland will turn out:
SCOTLAND: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Kyle Steyn; Finn Russell (vice-capt), Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Max Williamson, Grant Gilchrist; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge (vice-capt), Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, D’Arcy Rae, Alex Craig, Magnus Bradbury, George Horne, Kyle Rowe, Tom Jordan.
The Ireland-Scotland form book has very much been in Ireland’s favour of late having won the last 11 meetings.
Such is the frequency of this fixture, meeting each year in the Six Nations but also in the last two World Cups, and another pool clash to come at next year’s WC, there’s been a bit of bite to these recent encounters.
John O’Sullivan has had a look at Ireland-Scotland games gone by, which you can read below:
In all the title chaos, we shouldn’t forget there’s another prize on the line at the Aviva on Saturday.
Ireland and Scotland remain in contention for the Triple Crown having both beaten England and Wales, so whoever wins in Dublin also earns the Triple Crown.
Ireland earned the accolade last year, beating England, Scotland and Wales over the opening three rounds, having also won it in 2022 and 2023.
Scotland on the other hand, are yet to win the Triple Crown in the Six Nations era, last claiming it in 1990, before Italy joined the tournament.
Less than an hour to the Ireland team announcement now.
Gerry Thornley will have his quick take on the team shortly after it’s named and he’ll then be sitting in on Andy Farrell’s press conference, so stay tuned for some quotes from that too.
Gerry was also on duty earlier this week, bringing us news of next year’s Six Nations fixtures.
“Ireland will bookend the 2027 Six Nations with home games against England and France,” he reports. “Both will be under lights, as will be the case for their fourth-round match when they are hosted by Scotland at Murrayfield.”
[ Six Nations 2027 fixtures: Ireland to have two more Friday night games next yearOpens in new window ]
It’s funny how a single game can seem to change an entire campaign. For both Ireland and Scotland, their respective turning-point games both came against England on successive weekends.
After a first-round defeat to Italy in Rome, Scotland returned to Murrayfield for their Calcutta Cup clash against Steve Borthwick’s side, who were flying high after their opening win against Wales. But the hosts stormed it, winning 31-20 to end chatter that it might be time for Gregor Townsend to hit the road.
In round three, after a demoralising defeat to France on opening night in Paris followed by hard-fought win over Italy in the second round, Ireland went to Twickenham where England looked set to bounce back from their Murrayfield collapse. But they did no such thing. Ireland appeared to be back to their glittering best in defeating their hosts 42-21, and talk of Ireland’s demise was shown to be rather premature.
On the flip side, France hardly be a foot wrong in their opening three games and seemed on track for a Grand Slam, only for Scotland to again show some Murrayfield magic.
In short, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
Option 2 – Ireland win without a bonus point: If Ireland win without a bonus point, putting them on 18 points, Scotland would still be in contention if they lose by less than seven points (earning the losing bonus point) and if they score more than four tries (for the try-scoring bonus point). In that case, who comes out on top between Ireland and Scotland would go down to scoring differential, the Scots currently +5 ahead of Ireland.
For the sake of clarity, let’s take Scotland out of the equation. So Ireland get a win in Dublin, but no bonus point, what next? The most straightforward way by which Ireland would win the Six Nations is if France lose to England with no bonus point, or they lose to England and earn just one bonus point.
Should France lose and pick up a second bonus point, or draw with no bonus point, then the championship would go down to scoring difference again. As we’ve been over, France’s scoring differential is much better than Ireland’s (+79 versus +16) so this scenario would likely not play out well for us.
TLDR: If Scotland lose or draw to Ireland, and France beat England (bonus point or not), France will retain the Six Nations title.
[ Six Nations permutations: Here’s how Ireland can win the title on the final dayOpens in new window ]
Focusing on Ireland, it’s quite simple – they need to beat Scotland if they’re to really be in with a chance of snatching the title.
If Ireland win in Dublin, Scotland would likely be out of the running (needing a try-scoring and losing bonus point to stay in contention in the case of a defeat), leaving it down to England to do us a solid against France.
Let’s break down Ireland’s potential title-winning options...
Option 1 – Ireland win with a bonus point: Ireland move to 19 points and Scotland are out of the running. To win the title, Ireland then need France to lose to England (regardless of bonus points) or draw without a try-scoring bonus point.
Ireland could also win the championship if France draw against England with a try-scoring bonus point, but they would need to get ahead of Les Bleus on scoring difference. But given Ireland currently trail France by 63 points in terms of scoring difference, that’s a rather unlikely option.
To be continued... (Sorry, we’re nearly there, kind of.)
Now that the Scotland team is out of the way and we’ve a bit of time until the Ireland team is announced at 2pm, how about we wrap our heads around the permutations?
For the week that’s in it, the Six Nations is now a three-horse race as Ireland, Scotland and France all remain in contention for the championship.
Aside: Nathan Johns will shortly be kicking off a live blog to follow today’s Cheltenham action if you’re also interested in literal horse races.
But sticking with rugby, France hold the strongest position ahead of the final round, sitting top of the table on scoring difference while also having the benefit of playing in the last of Saturday’s games, meaning they’ll know exactly what is required of them to win the title well ahead of kick-off in Paris.
Here’s the breakdown of the top of the table:
France – 16 pts, +79 scoring difference
Scotland – 16 pts, +21 scoring difference
Ireland – 14 pts, +16 scoring difference
To be continued... (That makes it sound very mysterious when really I’m trying to avoid an information-overload.)
Scotland have gone for a new-look secondrow in the form of Max Williamson and Grant Gilchrist.
Gregor Townsend has made three changes for Saturday’s game, with Zander Fagerson restored to the starting XV replace D’Arcy Rae in the frontrow.
The back line is unchanged from their win over France last time out, Ben White and Finn Russell retained at half back, captain Sione Tuipulotu continuing his centre partnership with Huw Jones, while Blair Kinghorn minds fullback.
Scotland have named their team for Saturday’s clash in Dublin. Here’s how they line out:
SCOTLAND: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Kyle Steyn; Finn Russell (vice-capt), Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Max Williamson, Grant Gilchrist; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge (vice-capt), Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, D’Arcy Rae, Alex Craig, Magnus Bradbury, George Horne, Kyle Rowe, Tom Jordan.
The last round of games will all be played off on Saturday, ‘Super Saturday’ if you’re so inclined.
Ireland and Scotland play in the opener at the Aviva Stadium where there’ll be a 2.10pm kick-off. Then it’s over to Cardiff where Wales host Italy from 4.40pm before France and England bring the tournament to a close at the Stade de France (kick-off 8.10pm Irish time).
With Ireland, Scotland and France still in the running, the fall of Saturday’s games mean we’ll be waiting on the final whistle in Paris to learn who takes the 2026 title.
In the latest episode of The Counter Ruck, Nathan Johns and Gordon D’Arcy discuss the question both Ireland and Scotland alike will be wondering heading into Saturday’s game at the Aviva – do the Scots finally have the beating of Ireland?
“Might this finally be the weekend where Scotland, fresh off their stunning win over France, get over their Ireland hoodoo?”
Listen to what the lads had to say on that below or wherever you get your podcasts.
Are Scotland primed to finally beat Ireland?
Gerry Thornley has, of course, lodged his predictions for out consideration.
“Andy Farrell is expected to largely revert to the team which pitched up in Twickenham for Ireland’s record-breaking 42-21 win in round three when the side to face Scotland in Saturday’s eagerly awaited Triple Crown shoot-out is announced on Thursday,” Gerry writes.
With James Lowe and Jeremy Loughman ruled out through injury, GT thinks Tommy O’Brien is set for a starting role ahead of Jacob Stockdale while Tom O’Toole is expected to continue at loosehead.
Here’s Gerry’s predicted starters and replacements to face Scotland:
IRELAND (possible): Jamie Osborne; Rob Baloucoune, Garry Ringrose, Stuart McCloskey, Tommy O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Tom O’Toole, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, James Ryan; Tadhg Beirne, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Mike Milne, Thomas Clarkson, Jack Conan, Nick Timoney, Craig Casey/Nathan Doak, Ciarán Frawley, Bundee Aki.
[ Tommy O’Brien in line for recall ahead of Jacob StockdaleOpens in new window ]
Good morning all.
We’ve made it! The final weekend of the 2026 Six Nations is nearly here – Andy Farrell has one last matchday side to announce as Ireland bring their campaign to a close in Dublin against Scotland on Saturday.
The Ireland team will be named at 2pm, while Scotland’s is due to be announced around 11am.
In the meantime, we’ll be taking you through everything you need to know before Super Saturday. I’ll be chatting you through the title permutations, previewing this weekend’s fixtures and sharing the latest news, analysis and opinion from our team of rugby writers and contributors.
First things first, here’s how the Six Nations table is looking with one round remaining:
