The leaders’ meeting was still in progress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing when Chinese state media published a report on what Xi Jinping told Donald Trump behind closed doors. It was a warning that while the prospects for the relationship between Beijing and Washington were good, there was one issue that could throw it off course.
“The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations. If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability,” Xi said.
“Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.”
The White House account of the meeting later did not mention Taiwan and Trump declined to answer a question about the self-governing island during a brief exchange with reporters. Secretary of state Marco Rubio told NBC News on Thursday night US policy towards Taiwan had not changed and there is no sign of Washington halting the sale of weapons or declaring its opposition to the island’s independence.
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Trump received full ceremonial honours on Tiananmen Square, inspecting a guard of honour and watching a march past of soldiers performing the zhengbu. This is a Chinese version of the goose step, which is more demanding and precise than the Prussian original, requiring the leg to be raised by precisely 25cm and each step to be 75cm in length, with a pace of 116 steps per minute.
If Trump was impressed by the military display, he showed most enthusiasm for a group of children who leapt up and down holding flowers and Chinese and American flags. It would not have been out of place in Ceausescu’s Romania but Trump was entranced, responding as if it was a spontaneous expression of innocent joy at the sight of himself.
Inside the Great Hall of the People, Trump told Xi he was a great leader, noting they had established a relationship that allowed them to talk through difficulties as they arose. And he predicted the relationship between China and the US was going to be greater than ever before.
Xi was smiling as he delivered his opening remarks at the meeting while the cameras were still in the room but his message was a serious one. He said the questions he and Trump were facing were vital to history, to the world and its people, they were the questions of our times.
“Can China and the United States overcome the ‘Thucydides trap’ and create a new paradigm of major country relations? Can we meet global challenges together and provide more stability for the world? Can we, in the interest of the well-being of our two peoples and the future of humanity, build a brighter future together for our bilateral relations?” he said.
Coined by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, the Thucydides trap refers to the dangers that arise when an emerging power challenges an established one. The ancient Greek historian said the rise of Athens evoked such fear in Sparta that it made war inevitable.
Xi has been talking for more than 10 years about how China and the US can avoid the Thucydides trap, even if they compete vigorously. At the state banquet for Trump on Thursday night, he said Chinese rejuvenation could go hand in hand with making America great again.
Xi suggested he and Trump could deliver stability in the bilateral relationship for the next three years, until the end of the US president’s term in office. Both sides appear keen to de-escalate tensions, if only to buy time to take steps to reduce their economic dependence on one another.
“Constructive strategic stability means positive stability with co-operation as the mainstay, healthy stability with competition within proper limits, constant stability with manageable differences, and lasting stability with expectable peace. Building a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability is not a slogan. It means actions in the same direction,” Xi told Trump, according to the official Chinese account of their meeting.
Two weeks ago, Vladimir Putin called Donald Trump to talk about the future economic relationship between Russia and the US, apparently picking up on an offer the US president made some time ago to restore business links in return for an end to the war in Ukraine. This week’s visit to Beijing could bring a period of stability to the US-China relationship while Xi’s relationship with Putin remains strong.
Meanwhile, Europe is involved at only a short distance in a military conflict with Russia and is gearing up for a trade war with China. As Trump misses no opportunity to make a disobliging remark about European leaders while encouraging the rise of the far right, it is the most wretched time to be America’s ally.
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