Statue of the 18th-century philosopher David Hume on the Royal Mile, Edinburgh: ‘Hume . . . is probably not much more implicated in the slave trade than many of us are today,’ says his latest biographer Julian Baggini. Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Scientists who are dismissive of philosophers generally still have a soft spot for David Hume. He is one of those Enlightenment thinkers who is decide(...)

The money caused them to try harder but performance improved hardly at all. Photograph: iStock

Behavioural finance experts and Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler have long argued that all kinds of cognitive biases bedevil human j(...)

Even after 11 occasions where the correct answer to each question was revealed, almost half of people still chose the charlatan

When it comes to economic advice, people prefer charlatans to experts. So says a recent study, The Expert and The Charlatan: an Experimental Study in (...)

You can’t predict the future. Photograph: iStock

Amid ongoing chatter about 2021 forecasts, one must ask: given forecasters got it wrong in 2020, why believe their prognostications about 2021? “Ever(...)

Apple: huge stock price gains recorded this year. Photograph:  Josh Edelson / AFP via Getty Images

Last January, no one predicted a global pandemic was about to clobber the world economy but that stock markets would gain anyway. Nevertheless, h(...)

 ‘US markets halved in 2000-02 and again in 2007-09, but you have to go all the way back to the 1930s to find the last time stocks more than halved in value.’ Photograph: Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

Markets are doomed. Again. Warnings of looming Armageddon have become routine over the last decade, so it wasn’t surprising to hear another apocalypti(...)

Scott Anthony’s ideas have gained traction lately and he is ranked as one of the top 10 global business thinkers in the prestigious Thinkers50 listing. Photograph: Alastair Fyfe

A frequently quoted survey by consulting firm McKinsey suggests that 94 per cent of executives are dissatisfied by their firm’s innovation efforts, de(...)

Project Parenthood means pouring every particle of ourselves into transforming these small humans into functioning bigger ones. Photograph: E+/iStock/Getty

I have just passed my favourite sight in the whole of Ireland when my son calls to ask me to pick up ketchup. My favourite sight on the island – bette(...)

 Manchester United manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer: ‘United’s assumption was there was a “causal link between Solskjær’s skill as a manager and the upturn in the team’s fortunes”.’ Photograph: Andrew Yates/Reuters

Short-term thinking, confusing skill with luck, the lure of a good story – Manchester United’s decision to appoint the unproven Ole Gunnar Solskjaer a(...)

Analysts tend to get it wrong when companies are strongly outperforming or underperforming relative to others in their sector, according to a 2013 study. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Earnings season is now under way in the United States, so market analysts will be kept busy in the coming weeks, chopping and changing their earnings (...)

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