2,000 GUINEAS AT NEWMARKET:RACING STATISTICIANS are no doubt getting themselves into a sweat about the unlikelihood of another all-time great horse emerging on the horizon just a year after Sea The Stars, but the hope remains ahead of this afternoon's 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket that St Nicholas Abbey might prove just such an anomaly.
That the unbeaten colt, who will go off the hottest Guineas favourite for years, is also trained in Ireland has less to do with luck than it does with years of accumulated expertise and investment by John Magnier’s Coolmore empire as well as the instinctive genius of Aidan O’Brien.
Since first entering the historic Ballydoyle yard 14 years ago, the champion trainer has produced a mind-warping 76 individual winners of 160 Group One races. The tally includes 41 Classics (22 Irish, 14 British and five French). And yet the vibes from Ballydoyle all winter have been that St Nicholas Abbey might just be the best that has ever gone through O’Brien’s hands.
Hell will freeze over quicker than O’Brien is likely to say something like that publicly – at least not pre-race – but the most solid piece of evidence to support the theory is a stunning triumph in last October’s Racing Post Trophy that certainly put in the shade anything Sea The Stars did as a juvenile.
Ranged behind St Nicholas Abbey that day were Elusive Pimpernel and Al Zir who are at the forefront of today’s opponents and who on that piece of Doncaster form have not so much a mountain to climb as a full Himalaya Range.
Others like Canford Cliffs and Awzaan look to have question-marks over them in terms of lasting the mile, so much so that a body of opinion was growing yesterday that the second-string of O’Brien’s three-pronged attack, Fencing Master, could be the one to shake up his stable-companion most.
Such presumption has a habit of getting bitten but there is no doubt that this Guineas appears to revolve around one horse. Even O’Brien admitted yesterday: “He has thrived through the winter. Like all our horses he should improve for his first run of the season but he is naturally a very fit, athletic horse.”
All five of O’Brien’s previous Guineas winners won first time up but where St Nicholas Abbey is different is that George Washington, Rock Of Gibraltar and Co weren’t campaigned exclusively at a mile like their heir-apparent was. Being by Montjeu, St Nicholas Abbey is bred to blossom over longer distances which will be something to ponder if he can win today.
On the face of it, this afternoon’s opposition are relying on the Irish star producing a sub-par performance and in betting terms St Nicholas Abbey’s odds will dissuade ordinary punters. But it may emerge that those willing to oppose the favourite will find themselves looking to the skies.
O’Brien has played down ground fears for St Nicholas Abbey although any forecast overnight rain would appear to suit him. If Newmarket escapes that rain though, it will be very interesting to see how the colt will handle the downhill run into the dip on quick ground. It can catch them out.
The intriguing thought remains, though, that St Nicholas Abbey will be so superior that no circumstances will stop him winning.
That might require him to be a truly freakish talent but it is not unknown for lightening to strike in successive years. After all, just a year after Nijinksy won the Guineas, it was no less than Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef that fought out a memorable Newmarket finish.
O’Brien completed a Guineas double five years ago and Devoted To You is his representative in tomorrow’s 1,000, a race in which the Jim Bolger-Kevin Manning team will run Gile Na Greine. The long-time ante-post favourite, Special Duty, represents France while Kieren Fallon has chosen Seta instead of the Nell Gwyn winner Music Show.
It might be dangerous to underestimate Devoted To You, but the first weekend in May looks to be all about her illustrious stable companion.
