The All Blacks are in Chicago for what they have styled as the “Rematch” and the opportunity to avenge the loss they suffered to Ireland nine years ago in the same city.
But the marketing strapline is perhaps not indicative of the truth, and the real reason why the All Blacks are back at Soldier Field this week playing Ireland is the opportunity to enjoy one of the biggest single pay-days in New Zealand rugby history.
A team that once saw winning as the sole arbiter of success is these days equally focused on making money and they have come to Chicago to demonstrate the full might of their commercial standing.
In the nine years since the All Blacks were last in Chicago they have evolved into a sporting megabrand – with about €35 million a year of sponsorship on their kit alone, and ambitions to double the €1.75 billion price tag their US equity investor, Silver Lake, put on them three years ago.
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This week, more than 350 high-flying corporate executives have paid top dollar to gain insights into the All Blacks’ leadership culture and a well-polished PR campaign has been at full noise selling the team, the history and the game to a US fan-base that New Zealand Rugby hopes will become considerably bigger in the next decade.
Can Ireland upset the odds against New Zealand?
But there is a danger that the growing financial empire is being built on increasingly rocky foundations.
All the money that has poured in over the last decade is being invested on the back of the All Blacks consistent excellence and their uniquely impressive win record.
They have won 76 per cent of all their games, and 81 per cent in the professional era, but in the last five years, that proportion has dropped to 71 per cent. Under current head coach Scott Robertson it sits at 74 per cent.
That’s not a proportion that matches the sales pitch – and the growing concern in New Zealand is that the focus is too heavily on winning investment, to the detriment of the All Blacks’ ability to win games.
The ambition is starting to feel like it’s too big for the All Blacks’ capabilities and that they are now hawking themselves around the world telling everyone how good they are while South Africa are pursuing the more effective strategy of showing everyone how good they are.
And this clash with Ireland feels like it is a significant danger point for the All Blacks: maybe the game where the big cracks many feel are lurking within the Robertson set-up start to be exposed.
The day before the All Blacks left home, assistant coach Jason Holland announced he would be leaving at the end of the year. He’s not seeking an extension to his contract and nor had the All Blacks offered him one, creating a mutual departure that hints of disunity and tension within the current coaching set-up.
Last year, assistant coach Leon MacDonald quit after just four tests and Robertson, not quite two years into his tenure, has lost 40 per cent of the coaching staff he initially appointed.
Both departures have been portrayed as amicable and part and parcel of high-performance environments, but the All Blacks don’t have a history of chopping and changing staff like this. They are all about stability and security and the tension within Robertson’s regime is thought to relate to the problems the All Blacks have had in reinventing and improving their attack.
The consistent lament about Robertson’s All Blacks is that they don’t have a clear identity and that they have lost the art of sharp pass and catch, direct running lines and innovative counterattack.
The stats that came out of the recent Rugby Championship confirmed what everyone could see – that the All Blacks have fallen a long way behind South Africa, but also Argentina and Australia in their ability to use the ball.
They sort of grind and bash their way to victory these days – producing a few destructive scrums and driving mauls, and a sporadic dash of enterprising attack, but they are not the lethal team of old.
Ireland, of course, may scoff at this as the All Blacks used the ball well enough the last time these two sides met in Dublin last year. But that 23-13 win for New Zealand was the exception not the rule – and easily the best performance of 2024. Besides, the fact the All Blacks have lost six Tests already under Robertson – Steve Hansen took six years to lose that many – is all the proof anyone needs to be sure this is not a golden age for New Zealand.
What’s particularly galling for New Zealand fans is the near collapse of the team’s once famed counterattack ability.
The Springboks scored 13 Rugby Championship tries from counterattack this year – which was 48 per cent of their total – while the All Blacks only scored two counterattack tries (9 per cent).
The All Blacks also conceded 17 more points than they scored in the final 20 minutes of games in the championship. Long gone are the days in which New Zealand would surge in the final quarter and run down almost any lead an opponent had.
In addition, there have been endless issues trying to nullify opponents’ kicking games this year and the All Blacks have been almost comically bad at catching high balls.
The basics that have made the All Blacks what they are have eroded on Robertson’s watch, and having not managed to win the Rugby Championship either this year or last, having suffered a record (43-10) loss to South Africa in September, and having seen two assistants depart early, he’s clearly under enormous pressure to get a win in Chicago.
The All Blacks need a win not just to bolster an unconvincing record to date, but to also restore some faith that they can again become the game’s great innovators and satisfy their enormous collection of sponsors that their investment has been well spent.
