Hello and welcome to this Friday’s Inside Politics newsletter, your recap of the week in politics.
Is it too early for byelections fever?
There has been a series of developments on plans to fill the seats in Dublin Central and Galway West respectively left vacant by Paschal Donohoe (departed for a job at the World Bank) and Catherine Connolly (due to her Áras win).
Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris have decided the election will happen in May and the Government is looking at Friday the 22nd for polling day.
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The week began with the news that the mother of Harvey Morrison Sherratt, a nine-year-old boy who died after waiting years for spinal surgery, could be selected by Sinn Féin to run in Dublin Central.
Fine Gael opened a nomination process in advance of a selection convention for the Galway West constituency. Senator Seán Kyne – a former TD – and Cllr Eddie Hoare are seen as possible candidates.
The Green Party selected Cllr Janet Horner as its candidate in Dublin Central and the Social Democrats chose grassroots activist Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich to run in Galway West.
The various runners and riders for both constituencies can be found here. Meanwhile, Andrew Hamilton had an in-depth look at the Galway West constituency.
So is it a bit soon to be getting excited? In the real world, yes, but in the Leinster House bubble the answer to that question is probably a resounding no. Independent Ireland has been banging on about its Galway West candidate, Cllr Noel Thomas, since October.
Will ‘good weather’ on polling day benefit the Coalition parties?
The Taoiseach cited “good weather” as a reason to have the byelections in May but all the sunshine in the world on polling day might not help the Coalition parties win either seat.
Voters often use byelections to give those in power a kicking and, as the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll shows, satisfaction with the Government is down by a point to 30 per cent.
In terms of support levels for the parties, Fianna Fáil is on 19 per cent (up two) and Fine Gael is on 18 per cent (no change). The main Opposition party, Sinn Féin, remained the most popular, on 24 per cent (down three points).
Political Editor Pat Leahy’s news piece on the poll can be found here and his analysis is here. Meanwhile, in the latest report on the results of the poll, two-thirds of voters back the insertion of a right to housing into the Constitution.
Fianna Fáil’s increase in support was within the margin of error of the poll but there was good news for party leader Micheál Martin personally, with satisfaction in him recovering by four points to 37 per cent. This makes him the most popular leader.
As Leahy reports, the result comes after unrest within Fianna Fáil over Martin’s leadership after Jim Gavin’s disastrous candidacy in the presidential election.
Despite that, the poll also found that 79 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters said he should remain leader (though overall 43 per cent of respondents of all political persuasions thought he should go, as opposed to 39 per cent that said he should stay).
In an interview with The Irish Times published on Monday the Taoiseach expressed his belief that there is a “genuine feeling within the party to move on” from its ill-fated bid for the presidency. He also said: “I think when there’s too much internal criticism ... the party doesn’t do well with the people.” Does his party’s slight recovery in this week’s poll offer some support for this theory?
Persistent rain-related problems
The relentless rainfall and resulting floods continued to dominate the news and the Taoiseach and other senior politicians visited affected areas earlier this week - there has been talk of interim flood protection measures while permanent relief schemes are being delivered. As part of our coverage Martin Wall reports today that the the Dáil’s Public Accounts Committee heard that almost €14 million earmarked for a national flood forecasting warning service over recent years was not spent. Follow the latest on the weather on our live story today.
White House meeting looms
In the same interview the Taoiseach urged caution on any confrontation between the EU and US president Donald Trump. That message comes in advance of his expected visit to the White House to mark St Patrick’s Day.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Martin highlighted the “very important economic relationship” between Ireland and the US, and while some in the Opposition have suggested the Taoiseach should not meet Trump, Martin said: “I haven’t heard of any European Union state that has refused an invitation to the White House yet.”
The issue of undocumented Irish immigrants in the United States is a frequent topic of St Patrick’s Day discussions in Washington. It may become more pressing amid the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration. As Marie O’Halloran reports, the Dáil was told the number of Irish citizens seeking consular assistance about deportation from the US increased from 15 in 2024 to 65 last year. Minister of State Neale Richmond said the overall number may seem small but “it is a 330 per cent increase”.
On other things Stateside, Hugh Linehan has watched Melania, the documentary about the US first lady, so you don’t have to. He has written a piece headlined “Melania the movie is a mash-up of Carmela Soprano and Eva Braun on the Zoolander set”.
Anything else happening?
Loads actually.
Ellen Coyne reported on Tuesday that a rape complainant’s counselling notes would have a new “statutory privilege”, meaning they would not be shared in the majority of trials, under amendments to be considered by the Cabinet. The plan was signed off on by Ministers along with other proposals to change various aspects of criminal and civil law, including an amendment to allow for the potential expunging of historical convictions relating to consensual same-sex activity.
The Government also approved plans to fully implement a ban on scramblers in public places. It comes after the Government promised renewed efforts to remove them from the roads after the death of 16-year-old Grace Lynch in Finglas, Dublin, last month. Jack Horgan-Jones has an explainer on the new regulations here.
Catherine Connolly has been on her first visit to Northern Ireland as President. On Thursday Democratic Unionist Party MP Gregory Campbell took issue with a Connolly speech that had “numerous references to Derry, but not a single reference to Londonderry”, among other criticisms. Freya McClements reports here.
Across the Irish Sea politics has been dominated by the fallout from the Esptein files. British prime minister Keir Starmer apologised to victims of Jeffrey Epstein and said he regretted appointing Peter Mandelson as the United Kingdom’s ambassador in Washington. This is due to Mandelson’s relationship with the financier and convicted child sex offender, about which Starmer said the Labour peer had repeatedly lied. Our London Correspondent Mark Paul reports on how the issue has sparked the biggest crisis of Starmer’s six years as Labour leader and he is now fighting for his political life.
