Fourth budget sees a chasm open between formerly united Coalition partners

Good morning,

When the current Coalition was founded in the summer of 2020, multiple headlines heralded the end of so-called civil war politics.

The unthinkable had happened: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil dropped their historical opposition to each other and came together with the Green Party to form an alliance that would deny Sinn Féin the chance of entering Government buildings.

From the very beginning, political pundits speculated about how realistic it would be for these two behemoths to come together after an age of acrimony. Many privately mused that the parties would be at each other’s necks within weeks.

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The Covid-19 pandemic solidified the relationship, however, and for a while it seemed like very little could stick a wedge between the Coalition partners. Until now.

For three budgets, the three parties – relatively speaking – sang from the same three hymn sheets. This week, as the first kites flew for Budget 2024, there was a notable change in tone.

At the start of the week, three Fine Gael junior ministers wrote an article in the Irish Independent calling for a tax break of €1000 for middle income earners. They weren’t flying solo – Taoiseach Leo Varadkar had prior knowledge of their plans. So far, so predictable.

There is one key difference in this budget, however: the Minister for Finance is now a Fianna Fáil veteran. While former minister for finance Paschal Donohoe had to try to keep a lid on his Fine Gael colleagues’ demands for the sake of peace and unity, it seems that the new Minister, Michael McGrath, is having none of it.

While Taoiseach Leo Varadkar told the Dáil on Wednesday that he “will be insisting” that tax credits and bands will be “indexed” (which would cost well upwards of €1bn), McGrath gave a harder line.

As Pat Leahy reports today, McGrath told reporters that he did not feel “bullied” by Fine Gael suggestions for tax breaks for middle-income earners earlier this week, insisting that he will be “firm” in designing the budget tax package.

Jack Horgan Jones, Pat Leahy and Sarah Burns also report today about how all that budgetary sweet-talk spilled over into harsh words at the parliamentary party meetings last night.

In an acidic burn, Michael Creed, the former minister for agriculture, said Fine Gael “shouldn’t take lectures from those who crashed the economy” and also told the meeting that as far as he was concerned “they’re still on probation in respect of their fiscal probity”.

At the other end of the Leinster House complex, at the Fianna Fáil meeting, Micheál Martin said the Government was engaged in a collective budgetary process and would make a collective decision on the budget. “Ministers of State writing op-eds is not helpful, it undermines this process.”

The Fine Gael party has held the finance portfolio for more than a decade. Letting go of the purse-strings, and the power that comes with that, is clearly taking some getting used to.

As my colleagues report this morning, there is widespread disquiet among Fianna Fáil ministers.

And just remember: this is all well before formal negotiations take off. Buckle in and expect to hear much more posturing over the next four months.

GUBU – as bizarre today as it was in 1982

It was a proud day for the Irish Times parish yesterday as Political Correspondent Harry McGee launched his new book, The Murderer and the Taoiseach, which tells the story of the “GUBU” affair.

GUBU was the acronym coined by the late Conor Cruise O’Brien from Mr Haughey’s own words – grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre, unprecedented – to describe the series of events of 30 years ago: the arrest of a murderer, Malcolm Macarthur, in the Dalkey apartment of his attorney general, Patrick Connolly.

Former taoiseach Bertie Ahern was on hand to launch the book and gave a detailed and vivid description of the events of 1982.

He spoke about his role as chief whip, and of the difficulty of corralling the then-government from one week to the next.

[ The murderer, the attorney general, the taoiseach and the birth of Gubu ]

McGee spoke of his intensive research to locate the key players in the saga, and of how the story is as sensational today as it was decades ago.

Irish Times journalist Colin Gleeson was on hand to report on the event, which was packed to the rafters. Read his story here.

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Playbook

Dáil Eireann

Minister for Justice Simon Harris takes questions on his brief at 9.30am, and shortly afterwards Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue will take questions on his brief at 10.30am.

Leaders’ Questions will be up at noon, with Sinn Féin, the Labour Party, People Before Profit-Solidarity and Regional Group in the driving seat.

There will be questions on policy or legislation at 12.34pm, followed by expressions of sympathy for the late Noel Treacy.

Just before 2.30pm, there will be statements on biodiversity action. Topical issues will be taken before 5pm, and then it is on to Private Members’ Business.

This week, People Before Profit are proposing a Bill that would give effect to many of the recommendations made by a recent independent report into the provision of abortion services across the country. That report recommended widespread changes to the existing law including the removal of the three day wait to access abortion medication. The Government will table a one year timed amendment on the Bill, effectively stalling its progression through the Oireachtas for 12 months.

The rest of the schedule can be found here.

Seanad

It’s a short day in the Seanad.

Commencement Matters are up at 9.30am, followed by the Order of Business an hour later.

At 11.45am, the Regulated Professions Bill 2022 will go through the second stage of the legislative process.

The official agenda can be found here.

Committees

There are a few interesting committee hearings up today.

At 9.30am, the Joint Committee on Disability Matters will hold a public awareness hearing into the topic of living with a disability.

The Public Accounts Committee meets at the same time to hear about the immigrant investor programme, as well as expenditure and governance in relation to the International Protection process.

At 1.30pm, the Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement will hold an engagement with representatives of Glencree Centre for Peace and Reconciliation.

The best of the rest can be fond here.