Bertie Ahern leaves today for Helsinki and Stockholm to garner support for an EU declaration on Irish neutrality. Deaglán de Bréadún assesses the implications for a second vote on the Nice Treaty.
The election is over, the champagne has been drunk and it is time to get down to business. Governments in countries seeking membership of the European Union watch anxiously, if discreetly, to see what the incoming administration is going to do about ratifying the Nice Treaty.
The Government is going to have to carry the brunt of the campaign, even more than last time. Fine Gael is depleted and has other things on its mind. At the European summit in Seville on June 21st-22nd, assurances will be sought from EU governments that Irish neutrality is not threatened by Nice or any other treaty.
This is in line with the Government's strategy of persuading the "soft" No vote to support Nice this time. There will, in fact, be two declarations emerging from the Seville summit: one from the Government, the other issued collectively by the EU member-states.
The Irish declaration, the longer of the two, will explain that participation in missions of the European Rapid Reaction Force requires:
1) a decision by the Government on a case-by-case basis; 2) parliamentary approval; 3) a United Nations mandate.
In a parallel declaration EU governments will collectively guarantee that they have no designs on our traditional policy of military neutrality.
The Taoiseach is visiting a number of EU capitals this week and next to ensure acceptance of the two declarations. Today he visits Helsinki and Stockholm; next Wednesday he will be in Vienna and he will visit another, as yet unspecified EU country. Spain currently holds the EU presidency and Mr Ahern discussed the issue with Prime Minister Aznar, who was in Dublin last Friday.
Finland, Sweden and Austria all have their own policies of neutrality. Government sources insist it is coincidental that Mr Ahern is visiting these particular countries.
Nobody expects any difficulty with securing a neutrality declaration from our EU partners. They all realise that this is a sensitive issue here. Both Seville texts are intended for domestic Irish consumption.
However, a dispute has already started between supporters and opponents of Nice about the legal value of the declarations.
No date has been set for the second referendum. The Dáil is likely to pass the required legislation before the summer recess. Seanad elections are under way and the upper house will not reconvene until September.
Once the legislation to hold a referendum has passed both houses, it goes to the President for signature and this is followed by the signing of an order by the Minister for the Environment. The referendum takes place a minimum of 30 days afterwards, so the earliest the vote can take place is October.
A European summit is expected to be held in Brussels on October 24th-25th and this may influence the choice of a date for the referendum.
The Taoiseach and the Minister for Foreign Affairs are said to be determined to ensure that Nice gets through this time. But nobody says it is going to be easy. The Green Party and Sinn Féin have emerged stronger and better organised from the general election, and the anti-Nice campaign will be their main chance of attracting attention between now and the end of the year.
Even pro-Nice campaigners do not believe the neutrality declarations will sway the battle. The Government is also planning to enhance the role of the Oireachtas in the scrutiny of EU matters, as a response to complaints about lack of accountability, but it is difficult to say how much weight this will carry with voters.
The Forum on Europe continues to function: its deliberations have been interesting and worthwhile for the participants, but a Fine Gael boycott and lack of media interest have limited its impact on the public.
Supporters of enlargement fear that a second Irish No will provoke a major crisis in the EU. The accession of the candidate countries, currently pencilled in for December, will be delayed. Anti-Nice campaigners insist these countries can join under existing EU provisions or through individual accession treaties.
The Government is expected to stress what it sees as the minimal impact of Nice on Ireland's standing in the EU, compared with the major negative consequences if the Treaty is not ratified. Other Nice supporters believe a more positive approach is called for, emphasising the need for this country to play a fuller role in the debates about Europe's future. The business community is expected to be more active this time, possibly spending considerable sums in the campaign for a Yes vote.
OPPONENTS of Nice are concerned by the emasculation of the Referendum Commission, which means their arguments will get less exposure.
The Yes campaign has gained some new blood in the form of the "Ireland for Europe" group, composed of young, articulate professionals who believe their generation has benefited from EU membership and don't want to see the gains frittered away.
The highlight of the last No campaign was its trademark black-and-red poster with the slogan, "You will lose: money, power, influence." Some Yes campaigners have indicated they might adopt a similar slogan this time around.
They will push the case for Nice on moral grounds, arguing that it is simply wrong to keep the former communist countries out of a united Europe.
One of the key issues for the anti-Nice groups will be the fact that the same treaty is being put to referendum within a short period, as though the first vote had no constitutional validity. Nice supporters argue that the turnout was small and unrepresentative.
Doubts remain over the commitment of the pro-Nice side. To paraphrase W.B. Yeats, it looks like a case where, "The Ayes lack all conviction while the Noes are full of passionate intensity."
Deaglán de Bréadún is Foreign Affairs Correspondent of The Irish Times