Unionists will need reassurances if Johnson is to budge on backstop

Boris Johnson's first meeting with Leo Varadkar was a success, with both sides describing the atmosphere as much warmer than in the flinty encounters between the Taoiseach and Theresa May.

But by the time Johnson had returned to London, Downing Street was keen to stress that nothing had changed.

The prime minister still wants the backstop to be removed entirely from the withdrawal agreement and he is not interested in negotiating a time limit or an exit mechanism from it.

To win a majority at Westminster for such a Northern Ireland-only backstop, Johnson would need the support or acquiescence of the DUP

Although he is willing to discuss an all-island regulatory regime for agri-food, he is not considering extending it to other sectors.

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During his first appearance in the Commons as prime minister last July, Johnson made clear that he did not feel bound by the December 2017 EU-UK joint report which established the basis of the backstop.

“That is the very trap from which it is now absolutely vital that we escape,” he said.

Hybrid solution

Downing Street said on Monday that Johnson’s position on the joint report has not changed since July and dismissed speculation about a Northern Ireland-only backstop as wide of the mark.

Britain is instead proposing a hybrid solution for the Border, with regulatory alignment for agri-food and a single electricity market for the island but separate regulatory regimes for everything else with maximum facilitation measures to manage the friction that creates.

The Irish Government will not sign up to any solution that is not based on regulatory alignment or, as the Taoiseach put it on Monday, to “replace a legal guarantee with a promise”.

So is the prime minister serious about seeking a deal before October 31st? Or is it, as one senior EU source put it, “like a second car, something he’d like but doesn’t need”?

DUP acquiescence

Johnson cannot take Britain out of the EU without a deal on October 31st and with parliament prorogued until October 14th, Johnson cannot call an election before late November. So the only way he can deliver Brexit on time is with a deal and that will require him to accept the need for regulatory alignment across the island of Ireland beyond agri-food.

To win a majority at Westminster for such a Northern Ireland-only backstop, Johnson would need the support or acquiescence of the DUP. To have any chance of winning their support, the prime minister will have find a way to deliver on the joint report's promise to "ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland".

Until now, Dublin and Brussels have dismissed that commitment as an internal matter for the UK. If Johnson moves on regulatory alignment, it may be time for the Taoiseach to consider how the EU can do more to address unionist concerns.