GERMAN ELECTIONS:JAPAN'S NUCLEAR drama has sent Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) into a tailspin one week before a crucial state election.
A final poll yesterday before the state election in Baden-Württemberg shows the CDU in danger of losing power there as it scrambles to distance itself from a decades-old pro-nuclear stance.
In just a week, a five-point lead for the CDU and Free Democrats (FDP) has melted away; now the Green Party is the second strongest and enjoys a two-point lead with the Social Democrats (SPD).
It may yet be enough to oust the CDU in the political heartland it has ruled for half a century.
The prospect of losing power in Stuttgart would hobble the CDU further in the upper house, the Bundesrat. More importantly, though, it would raise serious questions about the authority of Chancellor Merkel.
This week, with uncharacteristic haste, she imposed a moratorium to allow safety checks on seven ageing nuclear plants – including two in Baden-Württemberg.
“I’m no nuclear ideologue,” said Dr Merkel yesterday, defending a move dismissed as cynical by the political opposition and illegal by the energy companies affected.
As fears of a second Chernobyl rise in Germany, Dr Merkel’s party is struggling to explain why it is now in favour of shutting down nuclear plants it voted to save last October.
The CDU justified the reversal of the nuclear shutdown programme of a decade earlier as a chance to give the renewables sector time to mature. Now the CDU’s Stefan Mappus, Baden-Württemberg state premier, is in a dilemma.
“By changing his mind on nuclear power he is, in effect, saying he shares the arguments the opposition has made for months,” said Prof Joachim Behnke, political scientist in Friedrichshafen, on German radio. “On the other hand, this change of mind may alienate CDU voters who continue to support nuclear energy because the concrete danger here hasn’t changed.”
Nearly half of those polled by ZDF public television yesterday said events in Japan, and Germany’s reaction, was now the most important election issue. “The signs are pointing to a change,” said Richard Hilmer of the polling agency Infratest Dimap. “The first Green state premier is possible.”
Almut Möller, analyst with the Germany Council of Foreign Relations, said: “Baden-Württemberg is a particularly explosive election for Merkel and, judging from her actions of recent days, she knows exactly what’s at stake,” said Almut Möller, analyst with the Germany Council of Foreign Relations.
She suggests Dr Merkel’s growing domestic worries are unlikely to increase the stakes in Berlin’s standoff with Ireland over corporate tax at next week’s EU summit. “The attention of voters is not on the euro question. That won’t change to next week.”
This weekend voters go to the polls in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. Though the CDU is leading polls and could return to power, its SPD coalition partner is eyeing a partnership with the Left Party as the two parties end their campaign neck-and-neck in polls.