The showdown of all showdowns

Analysis: The Buttiglione affair is testing the EU to the limit, writes Denis Staunton , in Brussels.

Analysis: The Buttiglione affair is testing the EU to the limit, writes Denis Staunton, in Brussels.

Jose Manuel Barroso's decision to leave Mr Rocco Buttiglione in place as his designated Justice and Home Affairs Commissioner has pushed the European Union into uncharted and possibly treacherous waters.

Few in Brussels were last night willing to predict with confidence the outcome of next Wednesday's European Parliament vote on the new Commission.

Most agreed, however, that there is a real chance that MEPs will reject an entire Commission team for the first time in the EU's history.

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Mr Barroso told the parliament's political leaders yesterday that he had moved as far as he could to meet their concerns about Mr Buttiglione and some other commissioners. He announced that he will chair a working group on human rights and discrimination, which will also include the Commissioner in charge of relations with the Parliament, Ms Margot Wallstrom; the Social Affairs Commissioner, Mr Viktor Spidla; the External Relations Commissioner, Ms Benita Ferrero Waldner; the Development Commissioner, Mr Louis Michel and Mr Buttiglione himself.

The working group will examine all new Commission initiatives to ensure that they are "discrimination-proof" and that they acknowledge a human rights dimension.

For his part, Mr Buttiglione has written to the new Commission President to apologise for the offence he caused by statements about homosexuality and marriage. He welcomed the establishment of Mr Barroso's human rights working group and promised to excuse himself from making any decision as a Commissioner that could put him in conflict with his conscience.

Mr Buttiglione's letter and Mr Barroso's anti-discrimination initiative acknowledge that the dispute over the Italian conservative's statements concerns public policy rather than Mr Buttiglione's personal religious beliefs.

For many MEPs, however, the most important issue concerns the relationship between the Commission and the European Parliament. The Socialist leader, Mr Martin Schulz, yesterday accused Mr Barroso of intransigence and suggested that the new Commission President had misled him when they met earlier this week.

"What he put to us this morning was much less than I had been led to expect from him on Tuesday morning," Mr Schulz said.

If he makes no further concessions, Mr Barroso can only depend on the support of the European People's Party (EPP), which includes Fine Gael and the Union of a Europe of Nations (UEN), which includes Fianna Fail. Between them, these two groups have 295 votes, well short of the 365 needed for a majority.

Among those who are threatening to reject the Commission, the Socialists, the Greens and the far-left GUE group have 283 votes between them but could be joined by Eurosceptics and Independents.

Much will depend on the votes of 88 Liberals, who want to see Mr Buttiglione moved from his post but are reluctant to reject Mr Barroso's entire team, which includes eight Liberal commissioners.

Despite the Socialists' official position, which is to vote against the Commission, many Socialist MEPs are likely to abstain, perhaps under pressure from their national governments. With the help of a majority of Liberals and a few dozen abstaining Socialists, Mr Barroso's team could be approved by the narrowest of margins next week.