THE bail referendum pr6duced some remarkably similar statistics throughout the State, but a closer examination of the results gives much food for thought.
One clear signal from the west is that rural crime - and in particular the kind of pernicious attacks on the elderly that sparked a large Garda operation last winter - is still very high on the agenda.
The turnout in Connacht Ulster was lower than in the rest of the State. The average for all of Donegal remained below 20 per cent. In Clare, just over a quarter of the electorate voted, while in Longford Roscommon less than 30 per cent did so.
But two constituencies, Galway East and Longford Roscommon, registered the highest Yes vote in the State. In both cases this was just above 80 per cent, a massive endorsement by any standards. In Mayo the Yes vote was equally overwhelming: 79 per cent in Mayo West and 77 per cent in Mayo East.
There are indications, especially in Longford Roscommon, that more elderly people braved the driving rain on Thursday than would normally be expected. It is thought they made up a larger proportion of the overall total than is usual.
The reasons for this are not hard to find. Although the savage attacks of last winter in east Galway and Roscommon have thankfully not been repeated, there have been a number of robberies in Roscommon in recent months which have rekindled fears of further assaults.
The referendum result will leave the Garda authorities, and the Minister for Justice, Mrs Owen, in no doubt about the strength of feeling on the issue in east Connacht.
In Galway West, the pattern was similar: while the city varied between 4-1 and 2-1 in favour of the amendment, many rural parts of the constituency gave it an emphatic 5-1 endorsement.
Salthill, which has a high incidence of car theft and drink related crime, registered the strongest Yes vote in the city. Elsewhere, there was a higher No vote in some working class areas than in middle class ones, but the pro amendment surge generally crossed class barriers.
Donegal North East produced the highest No vote in the State - at 35.42 per cent of the poll, it came in just ahead of Dublin South East. This shows the late Neil Blaney's Independent Fianna Fail is still a potent force in the constituency. It called for a No vote and its influence was seen near the Border, around Buncrana, and on the islands.
Another set of islands, in Galway West, made electoral history when voters on five islands got a second chance to go to the polls because of a mix up over dates.
The extra voting had no impact on the overall result but has set a powerful precedent for future elections. In the event, an extra 5 per cent of the electorate on the Aran Islands cast their votes on Thursday, boosting the poll there from 25 per cent to 30 per cent (the result was about 60 per cent in favour).
The result on Inis Turk was close to the national result: two in favour and one against, out of a total electorate of eight.
On Inisbofin, where the amendment was rejected by a slim majority, the second chance to vote did not create much of a stir. The result was: 27 Yes votes, 30 No.
It was one of the very few areas along the western seaboard where a majority came out against the amendment. Another was the Gaeltacht village of Baile an Fheirtearaigh in west Kerry.
The hallowed tradition of holding the island vote several days in advance of the main poll, because of fears that the weather would delay the count, has been strongly criticised by islanders for years. Following last week's events it must now be regarded as a lame duck.
On Oilean Chleire in west Cork - where islanders went to the polls the Saturday before the mainland voted - the practice was denounced as "unfair" by the chairman of the local co op Mr Micheal O Ceadagain.
He said it prevented islanders from benefiting from the intense last minute debate in the run up to the mainland vote, which is particularly important during a lacklustre campaign such as the one just past, and particularly when the provision of information comes under scrutiny.
Whatever justification there may be for holding an early poll on Tory Island, or on other islands frequently cut off during January storms, there is little reason nowadays to continue the practice on the Aran Islands. The clearest demonstration of this was on Friday morning, when the boxes from Inis Mor, Inis Meain and In is Oirr were flown in early and arrived at the count centre in Galway before to a.m.
Meanwhile, a different poll in Galway West last week offered a fascinating snapshot of voter intentions in one of the most unpredictable constituencies in the next election. The poll in question was an MRBI one carried out for Raidio na Gaeltachta and it shows two former ministers, Maire Geoghegan Quinn and Bobby Molloy, fighting it out for the last seat.
Fianna Fail's Frank Fahey who has been striving mightily in the constituency since he lost his seat at the last outing, has been rewarded with a level of support which would see him elected a head of Labour's Michael D. Higgins and Fine Gael's Padraic McCormack, if the election were held tomorrow.
If he wins, then one of the sitting TDs will have to go and it seems it will be either MGQ or the former "King" of Connemara, Bobby Molloy, who saw his Connemara vote dip significantly at the last election and has a real fight on his hands. Equally, Maire Geoghegan Quinn - although famous for her eleventh-hour victories at the polls - cannot be certain of pulling another Houdini act next time.
The poll's most frightening message for the established politicians is that one in four people have yet to make up their minds. This proportion is slightly higher in the city, where one local controversy may have a big impact on voters on election day.
If you exclude these undecided voters, the poll shows a substantial rise in support for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and a corresponding drop for Labour and the Progressive Democrats.
Support for Fianna Fail's Eamon O Cuiv has risen from 17 per cent to 22 per cent, and he will probably be elected on the first count with a large surplus. Watch out for the State car outside his door if Fianna Fail is in the next government.
Although the vote for Labour's Michael D. Higgins is down from 18 per cent to 14 per cent, reflecting the nationwide ebb in support for the party, his seat is not in any danger. That could change, however, if the Mutton Island issue is not resolved by the time the election comes around.
The recent attempt at a solution by the Minister for the Environment, Mr Howlin, has not had the expected result. He sent local councillors a clear signal that the Government favoured a compromise proposal to build an underground sewerage station on the island, instead of the controversial proposal for an overground one.
But instead of embracing the compromise with open arms, the councillors dug their heels in and are refusing to budge. The whole thing has become a dirty political issue, and there is a growing feeling that some councillors would not be at all unhappy if it drags on until the election and harms Michael D.
It is a high risk tactic which could backfire on them, however, and lead to the election of the Green Party's Pat Fitzpatrick. Although still a relative unknown in the constituency, he scored 4 per cent in the MRBI poll. He could emerge as a serious contender, should he survive the first few counts in the election and pick up enough transfers.
