Voters care more about what happens in their backyards than in Frankfurt
Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll suggests the patience of the Irish electorate is wearing thin.
Fine Gael continues to be punished by voters, dropping six points (to 25 per cent) in this latest poll, allowing Fianna Fáil (on 26 per cent) to reclaim the title of Ireland’s most popular political party for the first time since 2008.
Labour has retreated to what could be considered its core vote, with just 10 per cent support and a far cry from the party’s high of 33 per cent recorded in 2010.
Sinn Féin has slipped two points to 18 per cent, with Independent/Others on 20 per cent, up six points since October 2012. The Green Party registers just 1 per cent support.
This latest poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, before the bank debt deal had been announced.
Of more salience to voters were the news stories that featured in the days and weeks prior to polling.
For older, traditional voters and rural voters, the mood music in recent weeks was quite unsettling – the imminent closure of Garda stations against the backdrop of the brutal murder of Garda Adrian Donohoe, the beef industry under the microscope, abortion legislation on the horizon and the deadline looming for owners of septic tanks to register.
For PAYE workers everywhere, the next wave of austerity arrived in January, with higher PRSI deductions from every payslip.
For Fine Gael, today’s drop of six points is somewhat larger than the trend would have predicted and cannot be explained by austerity fatigue alone. For a more complete explanation we need to look closely at the changes in party support across the various demographic groupings.
Strikingly for Fine Gael, it is no longer number one among the farming community, for whom Fianna Fáil is now the party of choice. And among the broader population of rural voters, a lead of 16 points over Fianna Fáil last October has been turned into a deficit of eight points. Rural Ireland has given Fine Gael a bloody nose and a timely reminder that in Ireland all politics is local.
For Labour, its decline over the past three years has been dramatic. Equally dramatic has been the fall in satisfaction with Eamon Gilmore’s performance, from a high of 49 per cent to a low of 17 per cent today. His personal credibility may well have been damaged by the growing belief that Labour has not delivered on its pre-election promises.
Perhaps recognising that the situation cannot be allowed to deteriorate any further, in the run-up to today’s poll Labour made securing a deal on the Anglo promissory note a hostage to fortune. Time to deliver on “Labour’s way or Frankfurt’s way”. Only time will tell if yesterday’s agreement will be seen by voters to be a vindication of Labour on this promise or if Michael Noonan, Enda Kenny and Fine Gael will get the credit.
It continues to be the case that Labour’s heartland is in Dublin, with 18 per cent support compared to just 7 per cent support outside Dublin. Considering how the pain of the new property tax will be felt more acutely in Dublin, Labour’s core vote may come under increasing pressure in the year ahead, notwithstanding recent developments in Frankfurt.
All may not be forgiven or forgotten but, in just two years, enough water has passed under the bridge for voters to let Fianna Fáil in from the cold.
That party, on 26 per cent (up five points), is now one point ahead of Fine Gael; a lead that is symbolically, if not statistically, significant.
Among older voters (35+ years) for whom the Celtic Tiger years were only a chapter in the Fianna Fáil book, they have opened up a six-point gap on Fine Gael.
Not all voters are ready yet to forgive. Fianna Fáil registers just 11 per cent support in Dublin, home of its party leader during the Celtic Tiger era.
Micheál Martin and Enda Kenny are now joint leaders at the top of the party leader satisfaction table. Momentum, however, is with Martin, who has moved up one point to 29 per cent, whereas Kenny has fallen four points to 29 per cent. Gerry Adams is on 27 per cent.
For the record, never before has a party leader been able to top the table with such a low satisfaction rating.
Sinn Féin’s progress in the past few years has followed a pattern of two steps forwards and one step back. While the party has drifted lower to 18 per cent from a high of 24 per cent in April 2012, it has maintained a foothold in the middle classes that may prove to be strategically important into the future.
Independents/Others are up six points to 20 per cent, a significant vote of no confidence in Irish party politics. For the first time we now have four parties or groupings all within eight points of each other. A competitive marketplace is generally considered to be a healthy state of affairs. Another interpretation could be voters are flailing around looking for answers and the electorate is highly volatile. This interpretation is all the more plausible if we add into the mix the 34 per cent of voters that are undecided.
The indications are the Government is running out of road. In April 2012, just 25 per cent of voters were more confident about our prospects as a result of the change of government. Now only 15 per cent are hopeful.
And since taking office, satisfaction with the performance of the Government has halved (down to 18 per cent in this week’s poll).
The conclusion of negotiations on a bank debt deal will certainly provide a welcome respite for the Government. But the honeymoon may be very short-lived.
On the horizon are increases in the property tax, increases in fees for education and health cover, as well as the introduction of water metering.
Having the can of Anglo debt kicked down the road will not substantially dull the pain of austerity. And as we have seen from today’s poll, ultimately it matters more to Irish voters what happens in their own backyard than what happens in Frankfurt.