Theresa May’s Brexit clock is ticking as negotiations enter endgame

Backstop. Full Stop.

We have all heard the cliché: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. With Brexit, you can do a shorthand version. It goes something like this: nothing is agreed.

How many times have we heard Theresa May say we are 95 per cent there? How many times has Leo Varadkar said he is optimistic that a deal can be struck in (delete as appropriate) September, October, November, December? How many times have we heard politicians/officials/journalists declare that we are now in the endgame?

Indeed we are in the endgame, as we have been since December 2016, when a new phrase entered the political landscape: “backstop”. The rules of that endgame are that there are no new rules. And the ultimate aim of it is to go nowhere in particular.

Our lead today has added another layer of complication to the negotiations. Four academics have suggested that a new Anglo Irish Treaty would be required to copper-fasten the Common Travel Area, which has been in existence for a century. The work commissioned by the human rights commissions here and in Northern Ireland also argues that the existence of the common travel area has been overplayed as a potential solution to overcome the backstop problem.

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Meanwhile, negotiations are encountering more muddy tracks, and Mrs May is saying they are difficult. Brexit will not even be on the agenda for today’s meeting of the British Cabinet.

Mrs May has accepted that negotiations are difficult. While EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has made slightly more soothing noises, it is now generally accepted that November is not going to produce a prospective deal. Surprise, surprise.

The mood music yesterday was not much above funereal. True, there were some conflicting reports, with the EU side being more optimistic. However, a British Cabinet source said that any hope of an early breakthrough should be taken with a “bucket full of salt”.

There might be acceptance within Europe that the UK's involvement in a customs union would be temporary not permanent. But its insistence that during that time the UK would be subject to the European Court of Justice is never going to be accepted in Britain.

Going nowhere

The clock is ticking. The real deadline is March 29th next year. If you start rewinding from there, votes in Westminster and in the EU parliament are required. That essentially means that if a final agreement is not on the cards by mid-December, everything will be thrown into doubt.

Yet everybody knows in any instance that the ultimate battle won’t be between the EU and Westminster: it will be between the Theresians and the Borisites within the Tory Party.

As our editorial points out, the problem has been compounded by British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (a Eurosceptic by nature) and his refusal to make any meaningful intervention. Indeed, he has made wan and contradictory statements in his rare foray into the debate, adding uncertainty to it all.

As the editorial notes: At the weekend, the Labour leader responded to a question about a second referendum by saying that Brexit could not be stopped – prompting a number of his front benchers to contradict him by recalling the party’s position of keeping open the option of a “people’s vote”.

And that's exactly what the editorial is calling for: a second referendum.

As London editor Denis Staunton reports, one of the only points of agreements among Tory Brexiteers and Labour remainers is an antipathy for Mrs May's plan for the whole of the UK to stay in the Customs Union until a permanent arrangement is struck.

The resignation last Friday of one of the most ardent remainers within the Cabinet, transport minister Jo Johnson, is a serious blow for Mrs May. He has called on a second referendum. The likelihood of that happening is slim.

It's not all bad news, though. New Zealand has opened an embassy here, as a direct response to the post-Brexit landscape. We will find other State and private players moving here too, looking for an Anglophone outward-looking business-friendly State.

Now if only New Zealand could extend the diplomacy and, as a gesture of goodwill, let the Irish team beat the All Blacks next weekend. That is as likely as a breakthrough on Brexit, sadly.

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Michelle Obama's much anticipated autobiography is published today. Hugely popular, many would love to see her throw her hat in the ring for the US presidency. She has consistently declined, saying she does not like politics.

An intriguing story from the archives. Stephen Collins writes that Russian leader Nikita Khruschev sent a case of Russian wine to an Irish diplomat, Freddy Boland, after the famous shoe-banging incident at the United Nations in 1960. Boland had chaired the meeting that had descended into chaos after sharp criticism of the USSR over its policies in Eastern Europe.

Playbook

The Cabinet is today expected to spend some time talking about Brexit. Leaders Questions begin at 2pm. It was a very quiet Monday and there is no running controversy. The most recurrent themes are Brexit, housing and health. At least one will feature.

At 3.40pm, Minister for Social Protection Regina Doherty will face questions from Opposition spokespeople.

The legislation coming before the Dáil this evening is partly technical: There’s a Hallmarking Bill, plus a Bill to help an international effort to give effect to an African Development Act.

The Local Government Bill will give effect to changes in the boundaries of Cork City Council and Cork County Council, as well as creating a single CEO for Galway City, and Galway County, councils. That is surely a prelude to both councils amalgamating in the future.

After 8pm, the Private Members Business sponsored by the Social Democrats and Green Party is a “Housing Emergency Measures in the Public Interest Bill 2018.

This looks like yet another Bill where the Government will be on the losing side.

It’s a late sitting. At 10pm Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe will continue to move financial motions arising out of last month’s budget.

SEANAD

The Seanad is having one of those periodic sessions where it goes into committee.

The public consultation committee will hold three sessions on small and medium sized business in Ireland

COMMITTEES

At 1pm, the Committee on Housing will examine the “Impact of Brexit on Ireland’s Housing Market” with experts from the ESRI and the Nevin Institute.

At 3pm, the Committee on Climate Action will listen to submissions from Bord na Móna and Eirgrid.

Another Brexit theme will be discussed at the Agriculture and Marine Committee (3pm) where the impact of Brexit on the sector will be examined.