Creating new party a tough task so close to election

Any observer looking at Irish politics will quickly spot the consistent opinion poll finding that voters with no interest in the bigger parties make up well over 20 per cent of the electorate.

In the increasingly fragmented political landscape of the State, the stock of independents has been consistently rising over recent years. Given the fragile environment now, it is not inconceivable that more than a quarter of the TD’s in the next Dáil will belong to no major political party.

When you are independent (truly independent) you quickly find out that there are limits to your influence or sway. Sure, on the Opposition benches, an Independent TD can make a mark, as Catherine Murphy, Róisín Shortall and Stephen Donnelly all have done.

But can an Independent ever form part of a ruling Coalition? It happened before in an inter-party Government over six decades ago when James Dillon lead a group of independents and himself became minister for agriculture.

In more recent times, we have had agreements between governments and Independents who give their support based on individual deals.

But in a scenario (which could still be likely) where it looks like no major party will be within an ass’s roar of making up the numbers, relying on a disparate and uncoordinated group of Independent TDs to prop up the Government would be inherently unstable.

In that context, forming an alliance or even a party, comprised of like-minded individuals begins to make sense. Renua Ireland has gone all the way by forming a political party, which has placed itself on the centre-right. Shane Ross is spearheading an effort to create an alliance of independents. Already three other TDs (Finian McGrath, Michael Fitzmaurice and John Halligan) have signed up and a quiver of independent councillors are ready and willing.

The mooted new party that may involve Shortall, Murphy, Donnelly and Senator Katherine Zappone will certainly liven things up electorally, especially in that 'independent space'.

Renua has been much criticised but at least Lucinda Creighton established a party with its own name, policies and identity. In a situation where there are strict limits to funding, and onerous bureaucratic requirements, that was no mean feat.

Ross and McGrath’s venture has been much longer in gestation and looks like it be be looser and less coherent.

For one the personalities involved range from former Workers Party (Halligan) to right-leaning individuals like Ross. The putative leader understands that the ‘independent’ brand is political gold these days. So anything that will dilute it will undermine electoral hopes. The solution seems to be a group of general principles, the lack of a whip, and a kind of alliance in which all will be able to retain their independent status. There are lots of contradictions inherent in that. For one, having a whipless alliance, where it is everybody for themselves, is meaningless. They will have to work very hard to make it something other than a fudge.

So what about this new party? Sure there have been talks but they are inchoate. The three leading personalities don’t all come from a similar place politically. Like Ross, Donnelly would be a strong pro-enterprise advocate though his social views would not be too far away from the others involved. Indeed, he has self-identified as a Swedish-style social democrat, which if nothing else is on trend.

While talks have taken place, can it really be parlayed into a party? There are lots of hoops to be passed through to be registered as a party and time would be against such an arrangement, especially if the election is called early. What’s more likely is an alliance or agreement, where the members contest the election under a joint banner, where fundamental policies are agreed and whipped - with more latitude for free votes on other issues.

Is there potential there? If the party were to place itself left of centre, there is certainly a cachet. It could have the potential to gouge at the margins of the Labour Party, attracting former supporters who could not bring themselves to vote for Sinn Féin or the smaller left-wing parties. It could also compete for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil votes, as well as the big chunk of the electorate which is nonaligned and looking for credible alternatives.

It’s not a great idea to be overswayed by opinion polls. The Gilmore Gael may have been becalmed but Labour believes the breeze behind the party will stiffen over the next nine months. Ditto Fine Gael. If the economy recovers, some voters may return to the devil they know. It would then mean the new party would be competing for a smaller slice in an increasingly crowded space.