Among the many difficult tasks the new leader of Fine Gael has to face next week is what to do about Tipperary South. Theresa Ahearn died last September, and, to date, FG has avoided moving the writ for fear that a bad show would negate the gains made at the previous by-election in the constituency which followed the death of Labour's Michael Ferris. That seat went to Independent Seamus Healy and FG came second, a feat referred to frequently and with great pride by John Bruton and his supporters as he fought to save his position this week. Quidnunc understands that whoever wins next week - and Enda Kenny is catching up with front-runner Michael Noonan - an early by-election is likely. Private polls, while showing Fianna Fail ahead, give the seat to FG's Tom Hayes, and the recent huge publicity the party received will help him further. The by-election was originally delayed for two specific reasons - terror of what a bad result could do to Bruton and the possibility of a member of the late deputy's family opposing Hayes for the nomination. Both these issues have now been resolved and the new leader is expected to move the writ sharply.
As for a general election, this week's event, and The Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll which set it in train, mean that more pundits now believe Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney when they say the Government has over a year to run. The Coalition fears it would not be returned to government now without the help of independents and with another budget to deliver more benefits in a year's time, the most likely election date is early spring 2002.
FG won't be pushing for an election. A new leader needs time, and last week's poll must be reversed to avoid disaster. A countrywide tour and the by-election will be top items on his agenda. Labour is not doing too well either, and there are already slight murmurings, but no more, of a heave there.
No one wants an election now.