Independents highly unlikely to be elected short of major swing

Lack of choice will not be a problem for voters in Connacht Ulster when they go to choose the three new MEPs to represent the…

Lack of choice will not be a problem for voters in Connacht Ulster when they go to choose the three new MEPs to represent the constituency. In addition to candidates from the main political parties, they can choose from a list including Dana, western development campaigner Marian Harkin, a Catholic priest, a "recycler", and one of the very few "politicians" in the State to have called for the legalisation of cannabis. A couple of months ago, an observer would have said that the contest hardly merited comment, that the status quo of two Fianna Fail seats and one Fine Gael seat was certain to be maintained. Hard statistics would indicate that this is still the likely outcome, although the election has now turned into an interesting test of voters' willingness to turn away from the two largest political parties when given an alternative.

In the Euro poll in 1994 Fianna Fail took 42 per cent of the votes and Fine Gael 30 per cent. Mr Bobby Molloy of the Progressive Democrats got more than 21,000 votes or 9 per cent of the total poll. Fianna Fail's Donegal-based Pat "The Cope" Gallagher topped the poll then with 53,000 votes, about 5,000 short of a quota.

The choice facing voters on this occasion has changed considerably. Fianna Fail's sitting MEP, Mr Mark Killilea, is bowing out and Mr Gallagher's running mate will be the Minister of State, Mr Noel Treacy. Like Mr Killilea, he is Co Galway-based and the two Fianna Fail candidates will divide up the huge Euro constituency between them.

Unlike 1994, there will be no PD candidate, and Fine Gael, obviously deciding that it could not take a second seat, has chosen to let Leitrim-based Joe McCartin, the State's longest-serving MEP, run alone. Labour secured 8.5 per cent of the vote in 1994 and Sinn Fein got 5.99 per cent.

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Short of a major swing from Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, it would appear highly unlikely that any Independents, even if they have the high profile of Dana Rosemary Scallon or the work record of Marian Harkin, will get elected.

Ms Harkin, who stood down as chairperson of the Council for the West to contest the election, was the first of the surprise candidates. She was one of the most outspoken voices in the campaign for the retention of Objective 1 status for the west, Border and midlands regions, and has challenged the Government's approach to regionalisation. She has argued that proposed regional structures are "cosmetic" and that "real power" must be devolved to the regions.

While she has been backed by the Independent Donegal TD Mr Thomas Gildea and the Independent MEP Mr Pat Cox, it will be difficult for her to run and finance a campaign to match the larger parties. In the last election, candidates spent between u £60,000 and u £100,000. Ms Harkin has said she is relying largely on people's "good will and energy".

The entry of Dana into the race, as the only other woman in the field, may take some votes from Ms Harkin, but the former Eurovision winner will also cause some discomfort to Pat "The Cope" Gallagher because of her associations with Derry/Donegal. In the presidential election, she got her highest vote in Donegal, an average of 24 per cent across the two constituencies. Her vote in Sligo/Leitrim, at 16.5 per cent, was also one of her best. However, the view across the political spectrum is that this will not carry through when she is up against candidates with a strong local following and in a very different kind of election.

Dana's performance on this occasion, on a "voice for the people" and traditional Catholic values ticket is likely to be damaged by the entry into the race of a priest.

Father Liam Sharkey (58), who has worked all his life in the western region, has decided to run against the advice of his church superiors. He believes his attempt to become an MEP does not contravene Canon Law, which states that a priest "should shun the exercise of civil power". He maintains that in the European context, the parliament is a "debating or deliberating body" while the European Commission has the civil power, and that he could therefore be an MEP and not exercise civil power.

Labour is banking its hopes on Tuam-born newcomer Ger Gibbons (32), who has been based in Brussels since 1990 working as an adviser. He has worked with Bernie Malone in Europe and is arguing that as a member of the large Socialist group in the parliament, he could have more influence on decisions than Fianna Fail or Fine Gael candidates. Sinn Fein's Sligo alderman, Sean MacManus, says he is confident of increasing the party's share of the vote from that secured by Mr Pat Doherty in 1994. He is aiming to outpoll Labour as Sinn Fein focuses on Border counties in its drive to get more TDs elected.

Galway-based "Ming" Luke Flanagan is calling for all prohibited substances to be legalised as a way of solving the drug problem and also favours regionalisation and "green" policies. He is bound to attract support among young voters. The Natural Law Party candidate, Mr Paul Campbell, is also based in Galway, while Mr Paul Raymond, who states his occupation as "recycler", is running as an Independent Green candidate.