FOR the first time in more than 16 years the State appears to be in the Mack on the migration balance sheet. According to preliminary figures from the 1996 census, the number of inward migrants in the past five years exceeded the number of people leaving.
Further analysis of the figures is needed to determine how many of the 3,185 surplus, or net inward migration figure, are returning migrants rather than new arrivals.
The figures may represent solid evidence that Britain's economic difficulties have resulted in a flow of people back to Ireland. It is a dramatic change from the previous census in 1991, when the net outflow of people for the previous five years was 134,000.
The net migration figure for males is still in the red, with 1,079 more leaving the State than arriving in the past five years. But this is offset by the figures for females, with 4,264 more women appearing to have returned or come to Ireland than the number leaving.
The net migration figure is worked out by estimating the overall population increase, which between 1991 and 1996 was 95,316, then subtracting the figure for the natural increase (i.e. births minus deaths), calculated at 92,131. This leaves 3,185 to be accounted for by arrivals to the State since 1991.
It is possible that all 3,185 people were not resident in the State, but merely visiting on the night of the census. Equally, a certain number of Irish residents could have been abroad on the same night, and therefore not included in the figures.
The last census period to show a net inward migration figure was 1971 to 1979. New arrivals then accounted for increases of more than 13,600 people a year. The five years between 1986 and 1991 saw the biggest increase in migration from Ireland with a population drop of more than 26,000 people a year due to migration out of the State.
The Dublin area, which recorded some of the largest natural population increases, did not seem to benefit from inward migration. Kildare, Kerry and Galway had the highest proportion of extra people arriving each year, while Dublin showed a drop of one person per 1,000 per year.
